My Initial Simulation on DDB Ult X Bonus Streak

[Lionqueen]

Thank you for looking out for us once again - great work! I agree with Galeygoo!

[alpax]

Thank you for looking out for us once again - great work! I agree with Galeygoo!

I appreciate the compliment! There was no simple or straight forward mathematical method to derive the original Ultimate X game because of the possibilities are way too countless to evaluate. There are some good strategies, but no one has the most optimal.

I'll strive to come up something with the end where it is easy to understand as well as something that is better than average.


This is personally my first exploration with Ultimate X, I do not know the basics to approach the standard game. I did not know exactly what needed to be done, done so much trial and error with this to learn bit by bit. So far I am personally pleased with the progress thus far. I cannot find a gambling forum that figured this out yet.

I was able to find another breakthrough finding on Segment 2. With now the 13 minor changes to standard 8/5 DDB strategy, I got up to 97.14% return now. Hopefully can progress a little more on Segment 2 before starting on Segment 3.

The most important thing I did learn so far. Inside Straights and 4 to Flushes are powerful plays in Ultimate X Bonus Streak. The deviations in strategy I've noticed lean towards this.

I've also experimented the 2 pair play with one set being face cards. Dropping the low pair has a negative effect, and I posted my reasoning on why it does.

[alpax]

Before getting into Segment 3 regarding play decisions based on multipliers and streaks, it will be good to look into the Bonus Percentage again (mentioned in Segment 2). It would be good to have a perspective of how good making non-optimal plays will be in favor of Bonus Chance.


Bonus Chance is counting all the Three of a Kind outcomes or better


Optimal Strategy (Maximizing Return - 96.79%)


2245781007924 / 19933230517200 = 11.2665%


Complete Greedy Strategy (Maximizing Bonus Percentage - 88.57%)


2438966354712 / 19933230517200 = 12.2357%


From seeing this, you can see that playing completely greedy will only provide an increase of 1% in Bonus Chance on average, at the same time the Player will be giving up over 8% in overall return. There should not be a strong emphasis on going for the Bonus hands although Ultimate X is all about the multipliers. The 11.2-12.2% percentage is considered a low probability.


Segment 2 was about making good trade offs to increase Bonus Percentage. With all 17 or 18 adjustments made, here is the percentage breakdown.


Adjusted Optimal Play with Good Non-Optimal Trade Offs





The overall return is 96.3875%


The average Bonus Percentage is 2302988262096 / 19933230517200 = 11.5535%


I would think it would be fair enough to lose 0.4% return on average to gain about 0.29% in Bonus Percentage. I am not seeking the most optimal play possible, but this will suffice.

The simulation result from Segment 2 yielded 97.327%, the listed return (from IGT) for original Ultimate X 8/5 DDB is 97.35%. I would consider up to this point, another breakthrough.

[alpax]

Found some stuff online with regards to Ultimate X Bonus Streak.

Grochoswski wrote an article about the Global Gaming Expo 2016 video poker games for The Rolling Good Times Online. Did something that Mr. Dancer did not do, got in some quotes from an IGT representative regarding the game that would validate the suspicions people here have about this game.

RGT Online - More and more new games By John Grochowski

[QUOTE]
“This is really ingenious by our math department,” Lynch said of the multiplier increase. “They say it’s the hardest problem that they’ve worked on in several years.”

Lynch thinks Bonus Streak, like original Ultimate X, will have its biggest appeal at low coin denominations.

“We feel Ten Play nickels is the sweet spot,” he said. “Of course if people want to set it up higher, that’s up to them. Players will be really invested in earning these multipliers. It’s going to be hard for to walk away because you’re constantly triggering a streak.”
[/QUOTE]

This game is ideally played for nickel denominations, and there will be options to raise the stakes. $5 a pull for 10-Play with Bonus Enabled.

This game is not anywhere near simple to solve. For those who are skeptical that video poker revolves around mathematics, the quote from the IGT representative should mean something. I did not give up yet, I did the best I could up to this point, there were downtime from failed trials but my end is coming soon.

The second thing that I saw was a screenshot that appeared online, it originates to the hardcore gambling forum VegasFanatics. There was a thread created by someone who attended the G2E and got some screenshots of the game. One of the screenshots had 9/5 DDB paytable at 3-Play. If you read the thread, you will also get a glimpse of how the Ultimate X Spin Poker will look like.



Original Thread Post where the image originated: VegasFanatics-Live Posts from the G2E Show Floor

Right now on the website, you can only play DDB at 6/5 for 3-Play and 5-Play, and 8/5 for 10-Play. There is no setting to change. I am not for certain when the game reaches casino floors that any of them will offer 9/5 DDB. It will certainly worth exploring good outcome holds with a better pay grade.

Going back to progress, I did not find much significant gains from Greedy Play, but to use the Average Multiplier system has made a bigger breakthrough. There are so much details behind utilizing the Average Multiplier which will take time to explain, but utilizing it got my results up to an average return of 97.646%

[Quest66]

Thanks Alpax for all your analysis.

Played UX Bonus Streak in the wild 2 days ago.

[Onenickelmiracl]

This game will be a replacement for ultimate X at many place. No doubt about it if the strategies are costing so much playing a bad strategy. It would be nice if a casino had 5 Ux machines added 5 Bonus streaks, but either or will most likely be the strategy a casino will take. I however don't find bonus streak tempting. FH followed by quads or RF won't be as lucky as it was for only two good dealt hands. The gimmick seems very expensive. If they think people will be stuck in a trap, they might not want to relive it when they escape.

[alpax]

Thanks Alpax for all your analysis.

Played UX Bonus Streak in the wild 2 days ago.

I appreciate the compliment Quest66! This game is already out on the casino floors? That is quicker than I thought it would. I would recommend people to play this game in moderation if they will enjoy the game.

I am guessing the WizardOfOdds (Shackleford) and JB will come up with a master solution soon. Maybe Mr. Dancer has the optimal decision making already figured out.

I've spent many hours on analyzing the game (a good chunk of learning due to through some failed experiments) that I may not consider playing. I got sidetracked again, I need a little more to wrap up my entire findings, to explain the reason greedy play is not good as it is perceived to be. I'll have that documented by tomorrow or so.

This game will be a replacement for ultimate X at many place. No doubt about it if the strategies are costing so much playing a bad strategy. It would be nice if a casino had 5 Ux machines added 5 Bonus streaks, but either or will most likely be the strategy a casino will take. I however don't find bonus streak tempting. FH followed by quads or RF won't be as lucky as it was for only two good dealt hands. The gimmick seems very expensive. If they think people will be stuck in a trap, they might not want to relive it when they escape.

Completely well stated opinion. Once a player hits a full house or better to get a streak of 5 games, it makes it tempting to keep on going longer than desired or else it gets relinquished by the vultures. I felt it was very important to inform folks here about the concept that the Bonus streaks happen around 11% on average which is really not often occurrence.

There are many players that I've seen who play 8/5 original DDB for nickels and dimes. So I think people will not be too concerned financially to take a shot at this game.

This Bonus Streak version is actually a better game than the original in terms of long term returns; that is only if people are able to put in serious time to memorize the play patterns on such a complex game properly.

Ult X can be a very expensive game.