Is This Game Postive?

[FloridaPhil]

Thanksgiving week my wife and I played four days at the Hollywood Hard Rock.  The good machines we like to play happen to have three multi line machines at the end of the row.  Playing these machines was another couple playing side by side.  We noticed they hit a hand pay and I was curious and walked by glancing over to see what game they were playing.  They were both playing 10 hand $1 9/6 Jacks or Better.  My wife and I talked about this game and we both agreed there weren't enough comps at the Hard Rock to turn this game positive.  Hard Rock comps can't be turned into cash or free play, they can only be used for rooms, restaurant food, or hotel gift shop items like shirts, hand bags and sun glasses.  Video poker is not eligible for multiple points.Both of these players played very fast.  I estimated they played 800-1,000 hands an hour each.  This game is a 99.544% game with perfect play.   I understand a multi card game has lower variance.  Each player was playing 10 hands at $5 a hand for $50 a time.  At 1,000 hands an hour that's $50K an hour.  I calculated the mathematical loss with perfect play to be .0456%, which comes out to negative $2,290 per hour each.Am I missing something?  What could possibly make this game positive?

[alpax]

1. Multiline games do not go that fast even on the Speed 4 settings since it has to show you outcomes for each of the hands. I think Mr. Dancer mentioned it somewhere.

2. Your math is off by a factor of 10 which is huge. The mathematical loss is 0.456% over the long run. The loss will be $228 per hour. That is IF the players played that fast which I highly doubt. More like 600 per hour is like a stretch.

3. You and your wife need to think more creative.

4. The rate of comps earned for Wild Card is not given which is part of #3.

5A. Have a friendly conversation with those players while they are waiting for handpays. Ask them what motivates them to play at such a high stake.

- OR -

5B. If you do not like talking to strangers in 5A. Try it yourself, see what you get. Play 3 hours of $1 Three-Play 8/5 Bonus Poker where you'll get rewarded a little more for 2s,3s,4s and Ace quads. Go back to your hotel room and play 7 hours of Deuces Wild on a laptop to fulfill your entertainment needs.

Short answer to your question, not enough information. But if you are not willing to do #3, #4, #5, then you answered your own question, No it is not positive.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]Your math is off by a factor of 10 which is huge. The mathematical loss is 0.456% over the long run.[/quote]Thanks for correcting me.  I can see now that I have been calculating the potential losses incorrectly all along.  I can't see us ever playing this way because the angst  would be enough to take all the fun out of the game.   We're happy with the way we play, but it's nice to know.  It definitely changes things.   Thanks again. 

[Vman96]

It's unlikely positive, but maybe they get decent mailers playing the game. Doubt they would be enough to cover a $228/hr theoretical loss though. Probably just action junkies.

[alpax]

[quote=alpax]Your math is off by a factor of 10 which is huge. The mathematical loss is 0.456% over the long run.Thanks for correcting me.  I can see now that I have been calculating the potential losses incorrectly all along.  I can't see us ever playing this way because the angst  would be enough to take all the fun out of the game.   We're happy with the way we play, but it's nice to know.  It definitely changes things.   Thanks again. 

[/QUOTE]

You are welcome, do not be afraid to try it out. You can with VPW at no risk.

Bottom line is these things take time to figure out, maybe upwards to 6 months worth of visits. I am certain Mr. Dancer mentioned that, you have to understand how the casino operates.

It's unlikely positive, but maybe they get decent mailers playing the game. Doubt they would be enough to cover a $228/hr theoretical loss though. Probably just action junkies.



Hotel room rates in the Miami area are pricey the last time I checked. I do not think it is possible to play that fast. I think 3 hours of Triple-Play will be a fair trade off if it gets a room stay for a night.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]Hotel room rates in the Miami area are pricey the last time I checked. I
do not think it is possible to play that fast. I think 3 hours of
Triple-Play will be a fair trade off if it gets a room stay for a night.[/quote]Everything is high in Miami.  However, Hard Rock Hollywood gives us two nights free if we stay Monday through Wednesday off season.  We try to take advantage of this as much as we can.  We are both mostly quarter players with about $700-$800 an hour each through the machines.  We both play 98.9% single line DW for at least 6 hours a day, but I don't know how that affects our comps.

[alpax]

At the described rate of play, you and the Mrs. are theoretically losing $7.70 to $8.80 an hour. Real results may differ since not everyday or every visit do you guys land a Natural Royal and the 2% it takes up will make it $21.70 to $24.70 an hour.

Theoretically, if the 6 hours is what is played, you lose about $50 as part of the long run. If the Hollywood Hard Rock gives you more than a $50 discount a night on their rooms, that is a good deal. For local residents who live nearby and do not need a room, it will have no value to them. It is on a situational basis.

[FloridaPhil]

Got it.  The Hard Rock is a great deal for us as it's only a 4 hour drive and the VP odds are better than Biloxi and Cherokee.  We lived in Miami all our lives until I retired.  Miami and Ft. Lauderdale are great vacation towns and we enjoy our monthly visits.  Much better than driving 9 hours to MS or NC for 96% odds.An $8 an hour lose is totally acceptable to us.  Of course it doesn't always work out that way, but we stay close to even most of the time.  VP is a great couples activity, especially if you are older and a little slower.  We are both in excellent health, but not everything works like it used to.  Thankfully, they have a pill for most of that. 

[Onenickelmiracl]

If you play perfectly. If everyone plays perfectly. You can't play better than perfect after all. Hard to say how much imperfect play cost if you don't know how imperfect it is. I've seen stories how people win tens of thousands and play it all back in a weekend. I don't even think ten play would be all that much fun after too long. Even in nickels I don't like it that much. I'd rather play five hands or switch to quarters. One of my best hits was in ten hands, on the tenth hand, but only played 3 hands before I hit it. So it was a great moment and not a finally moment. Speaking of depressing, 100 hands. You realize in the contests, winning is but a fantasy.

[FloridaPhil]

Perfect play is something that very few can pull of for long.   I expect Bob Dancer and a few others can do it, but it's harder than most players think.   9/6 Jacks is pretty easy, but playing perfect deuces wild strategy is nearly impossible for me.  There so many exceptions, penalty cards and the like that it's tough to play 100% correct.   Then there are the physical problems like machine malfunctions, cramps, less than perfect vision and distractions.  I have yet to have a sticky button cost me anything noteworthy, but it will happen some day. I suspect the couple I saw playing 10 card dollars enjoy having a bunch of money at risk.  My wife said he overhead the man say he lost $25,000 on their last visit.  I guess this is OK if you win overall, but the majority of the folks would be sick to their stomach if that happened.  It's a myth that wealthy people gamble big money with no consequences.   This may be true for someone who inherited their money or a rap star, but most well off people worked long and hard for their money and they don't like losing it.