Move or Stay?

[thestoiicone]

I may go back to [relearn] DW games. I just hate throwing away perfectly good draw hands--especially if you're running bad.
New Years' resolution??? At least it would be one that could be fun to keep...maybe less bankroll-draining.
Thanks for info....insight....

[FloridaPhil]

It's true you throw away a lot of hands in DW.  However, many of your best hands come on a completely new deal.  DW is not the only VP game.  I like it because it doesn't have the long disappointing dead spells between quads.  I can play DW for days without becoming bored.  Also, it tends to run in streaks which is why my strategy works well with it.  I've tried it with other games and it doesn't work nearly as well.  

[asteroid]

hi Phil, that is why I provided the link to a small hand tally counter in my previous post - http://www.officedepot.com/a/products/2 ... ly-Counter You can buy this counter at your local Office Depot (or order online) for $US4.00 (I am in no way affiliated with Office Depot or Great Star manufacturing). In one hand you hold the counter and tally non four of a kinds. In the other you play your hands. When you reach 16 hands you raise your bet from one unit to two units. Once you hit a four of a kind, you reset the tally counter to zero and lower your bet down to one unit again (note that if you hit a 4ofK before 16 hands you reset the counter to zero and keep your bet at 1 unit). Actually Sevens Wild is easy to find with a 4ofK paying your original unit plus 4 more units rather than your original unit plus 3 more as in NSUD with the same frequency of occurrence as NSUD - so it is a more optimal cycle bet.You have made no controversial statements - the casinos use the law of convergence to keep the lights on. For example, the Come bet in craps converges on a house edge of about 1.4% . It is no different for any given hand in a vp pay table, such as the 4ofaK in NSUD - the number of 4ofKs will converge to a proportion of 1/16 of the total hands played (with optimal holding/discarding) eventually. The law of convergence is immutable. If it wasn't true, then the Casino's couldn't keep the lights on since there would be no guarantee that a given casino game would converge to its house edge.



Interesting.  Similar to the Martingale theory. The problem I have with these strategies is they are too complicated and counting hands creates distractions and errors.  At least they would for me.  There is no doubt in my mind that using a strategy of denomination modification can allow a player to gain an edge on a negative video poker game.  I realize this is a controversial statement, but time and time again this has shown me to be the case.  If you can play positive games perfectly,

[olds442jetaway]

Probably not for everybody by any means, but I am always doing all kinds of counting and calculations in my head while playing and it doesn't bother me at all. May also be because I aced my statistics course about 50 years ago. Too bad I forgot most of it. This stuff just comes natural for me. Since I usually play a Martingale clone version of my own design, counting and doing math while playing keeps me from jumping the gun and increasing my bet too early. There is another easy way to do it that I have previously outlined and that is not to increase your bet at all until you are at a bet level where even hitting quad deuces will not get you even. I always up my bet by one unit when that happens. I hate hitting one of the premium hands and not even being even for the day. At that point. In your example I just count the spaces without quads in DW as I hit the deal button. For example 1 no quads next deal I say in my head 2 then next deal 3 and so forth. I'm sure this will drive some players crazy, but unless I get other interruptions like a stinky cigar right next to me or chain smoker holding their cigarette at eye level, I have no problem doing the math in my head. When I get those people from now on, I am just going to walk away. It is not worth torturing yourself over these idiots and it is better to not give yourself an instant migraine, runny eves, and who knows what other damage to your insides. Lastly, how about when you sit down to play your favorite machine and you see a pile of buts and ashes all over the machine including the screen and even on the carpet with an empty ash tray right there. If they had a firing squad for these idiots, I would volunteer. I wonder if they do that at home. Probably.

[asteroid]

Yes absolutely fine to do the counting in one's head of course. Saves $4 since you don't have to buy a tally counter and both hands can be used to hold cards on the machine for faster play. I use the tally counter since I always lose count in my head due to the distractions you mention plus others.Probably not for everybody by any means, but I am always doing all kinds of counting and calculations in my head while playing and it doesn't bother me at all. May also be because I aced my statistics course about 50 years ago. Too bad I forgot most of it. This stuff just comes natural for me. Since I usually play a Martingale clone version of my own design, counting and doing math while playing keeps me from jumping the gun and increasing my bet too early. There is another easy way to do it that I have previously outlined and that is not to increase your bet at all until you are at a bet level where even hitting quad deuces will not get you even. I always up my bet by one unit when that happens. I hate hitting one of the premium hands and not even being even for the day. At that point. In your example I just count the spaces without quads in DW as I hit the deal button. For example 1 no quads next deal I say in my head 2 then next deal 3 and so forth. I'm sure this will drive some players crazy, but unless I get other interruptions like a stinky cigar right next to me or chain smoker holding their cigarette at eye level, I have no problem doing the math in my head. When I get those people from now on, I am just going to walk away. It is not worth torturing yourself over these idiots and it is better to not give yourself an instant migraine, runny eves, and who knows what other damage to your insides. Lastly, how about when you sit down to play your favorite machine and you see a pile of buts and ashes all over the machine including the screen and even on the carpet with an empty ash tray right there. If they had a firing squad for these idiots, I would volunteer. I wonder if they do that at home. Probably.

[FloridaPhil]

I honestly don't think it matters what criteria you use to move up and down in denomination as long as you do it in a systematic and disciplined manner.  90% negative game quarters plus 10% negative game dollars does not always equal negative game 100%.  The key is to "keep" the high denomination jackpots and not run them back into the machine.  If you play quarters for a month and lose money each time you play then hit a $2K or $4k royal or a few $1,000 dollar quad deuces and stash them away, you are going to be ahead not matter what the odds.  What does it take to make this happen?  Luck.  What does it take to win using Dancer's strategy?  Luck.  Both strategies work with the right amount.  Without some luck involved, both fail.  There is much to be learned from Bob Dancer and I am grateful for his insight and for sharing his information. His methodology works in his environment, but using it in an attempt to duplicate his results in mine is futile.This is where someone usually jumps in and fires off some math to prove I'm wrong or just starts an argument that has nothing to do with the game.  I am not trying to prove anything, teach anyone anything or sell any products or services.  I am only reporting what happens on my side of the screen. 

[onemoretry]

...Most don't realize that 9/6 Jacks is only 96% until you hit the royal The royal constitutes slightly under 2% of the game return, so the 96% figure without the royal is a bit on the low side.

[onemoretry]

.  There is no doubt in my mind that using a strategy of denomination modification can allow a player to gain an edge on a negative video poker game.  I realize this is a controversial statement....
If, by "gain an edge" you mean sometimes finish ahead in a session, that is not controversial at all. Of course you can. You can also finish ahead in a session where you do not vary the denomination.

If, on the other hand, you mean that you can turn a 99% game into a 101% one by varying the denomination of play, that is more than controversial, it is nonsense. The game is the game, no matter what denomination you choose. and, if it's a 99% one, that's what it is, whether you're playing nickels, quarters, dollars, or whatever.

I'm sure a lot of players are attracted to the concept of going up in denomination at times. You start off playing at a lower level, and after a while, in a so-so or negative session, decide, based on some intuition, to go up in denomination. The hope, of course, is that there will be a premium hand hit at the higher denomination. What could possibly go wrong?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=onemoretry]If, on the other hand, you mean that you can turn a 99% game into a 101%
one by varying the denomination of play, that is more than
controversial, it is nonsense.[/quote] This all depends upon what amount of time your calculations encompass.  I agree a math simulation says a 99% game with perfect play will not exceed 99% in infinity.  However, as you have pointed out over the short term it certainly can.  My assertion is hitting enough jackpots at the 10% higher denomination can positively affect the results for a very long time.  For example, I hit one $4K royal and one $2K royal this year playing 98.9% DW quarters 90% of the time.   That's equal to six quarter royals.   I have also hit a number of $500 and $1,000 quad deuces plus a few quarter natural royals at $1,000 each.  Does this mean my good luck must suddenly flip on me so I don't screw up your calculations?  That is nonsense.Years ago Bob Dancer had a VP lucky streak that netted him over a million dollars in one year.  By his own admission he was playing above his bankroll at least part of the time.  How long was he able to claim to be a VP winner from those wins?  No one knows but him, but I'll bet it was quite some time.   Math calculations are unreliable in the real world of VP.   Each player's results are dependent upon what happens over the time he/she plays, not what any mathematical calculations can guarantee.I am not advocating throwing out math, winging it or playing by hunches. If you play positive games perfectly, you don't need anyone to tell you how to play.  Dancer has already done that and his methodology is flawless.  If not, I am saying to think outside the box and don't be quick to dismiss new ideas just because it goes against the accepted norm.  Negative VP games are here to stay.  We can accept loses as part of the game, quit playing altogether or create new strategies.  Your choice...

[paco13]

My thinking is all the premium hands I've been dealt or drawn were simply LUCK. I see the math and strategy as a means to extend my play therefore increasing my chances of getting one of those lucky deals or draws.
I take pot shots. I move up and down in denomination. I've thrown away Straight Flushes to go for the Royal and succeeded 3 times. After all this is gambling isn't it? That's what you do "take a gamble" and hope Luck is in your cards.