Move or Stay?

[wildman49]

My thinking is all the premium hands I've been dealt or drawn were simply LUCK. I see the math and strategy as a means to extend my play therefore increasing my chances of getting one of those lucky deals or draws.
I take pot shots. I move up and down in denomination. I've thrown away Straight Flushes to go for the Royal and succeeded 3 times. After all this is gambling isn't it? That's what you do "take a gamble" and hope Luck is in your cards. Gambling is one thing and gambling with a strategy is another.See paco is throwing out the book and going for premium hands no matter what the % loss is and hope luck is on his side.Phil on the other hand plays perfect best he can and plays them pot shots 10% of the time hoping luck is on his side. If luck is he is adding a $5 bet premium hand to his quarter bankroll. Has really nothing to do about making one game more then 100% pay back. What it has to do is playing even or above for say a year since this will never happen flat betting. I have done it as well hitting a 4k royal and many 1k deuce hits moving up from quarters to dollars.   One has to do it for some time to see the benefit. One also has to have a lot of patience to see the strategy work. Plus a little luck!

[paco13]

Well, I don't just aimlessly hit the button like a slot machine, lol. I do follow and play close to perfect strategy most times and I do seek out the best pay schedules we can find on the East coast. This helps stretch my BR. Problem is as Phil has stated they are all negative return games here. So always playing perfect means you will be in the negative in the long run. Makes sense right? If positive games will get you positive results long run then negative will get you negative results. So, you have to throw the book to the side now and again and just gamble if an opportunity arises.

[FloridaPhil]

What we are discussing in this thread is surviving VP in the average American casino where negative games are the norm.  There is no need to rehash playing VP in a Vegas professional's world as dozens if not hundreds of books, websites, videos and even radio shows are devoted to this subject.  What we need is real information and discussion of strategies usable for the average player in the average casino with substantially less than 100% odds and few if any comps.  In this world money management and discipline are more important than learning a .1% penalty play.  What good is it to talk about winning $100,000 royals or nights in the MGM penthouse to a guy or gal that is playing for fun and wants to come home with some money left in their pocket? Telling players to never play any VP game where they don't have an advantage is like telling college kids not to have sex.  Good luck with that...   

[asteroid]

Yes in most jurisdictions 100% plus payback machines cannot be found. There may be some slot club opportunities and mailers to compensate for this, but denominational switching seems to be the common thread for survival in most non-Nevada jurisdictions. Whether it's cycle betting on a given hand of the pay table, like I prefer to do, or techniques like that which Phil prefers.








What we are discussing in this thread is surviving VP in the average American casino where negative games are the norm.  There is no need to rehash playing VP in a Vegas professional's world as dozens if not hundreds of books, websites, videos and even radio shows are devoted to this subject.  What we need is real information and discussion of strategies usable for the average player in the average casino with substantially less than 100% odds and few if any comps.  In this world money management and discipline are more important than learning a .1% penalty play.  What good is it to talk about winning $100,000 royals or nights in the MGM penthouse to a guy or gal that is playing for fun and wants to come home with some money left in their pocket? Telling players to never play any VP game where they don't have an advantage is like telling college kids not to have sex.  Good luck with that...   

[FloridaPhil]

Playing alongside my wife gives me an opportunity to view both strategies on an annual basis.  We both limit our play to single line deuces wild with minimum odds of 98.9%.  She plays quarters exclusively and I move up and down. I play at least twice the number of hands she plays, so it's not an exact dollar for dollar comparison. Her bankroll stays fairly steady with fluctuations of a few thousand dollars both up and down.  My annual fluctuations can be as much as $5K.  The majority of these fluctuations come from royals and quad deuces or the lack of.  She adjusts her hand play slightly to hit more wild and natural royals and she does.  I play using VPW expert strategy.  Our annual combined play not counting comps stays fairly even.  Throw in free rooms, some food and free play and we could claim to be winners. I attribute our results to the game we play and the discipline to stick with it.  Having an adequate VP dedicated bankroll separate from any other money is essential.  With a relatively low variance, this game is pretty easy on the wallet and high on the fun meter.  I am totally convinced a well funded person living in Vegas could play full pay deuces and supplement his income.  Physical limitations would be the biggest negative influence.In addition, DW's tendency to run in streaks works well with my denomination switching strategy.  Using this strategy does not alter the odds or the hand play of the game.  It's similar to adding a bonus feature making the jackpots bigger than normal.   The key to it's success is staying with quarters the majority of the time and switching back after a big denomination win.   If you stay at the higher denomination, you will give it back.  I am not claiming this strategy is guaranteed to make you a long term winner. I am saying it puts you in position to be. 

[FAA]

If I flat bet a 98.9% quarter game all the time, the negative odds will
eventually drain my bankroll.  If I play the same quarter game and hit a
$4K jackpot after switching to dollars, my bankroll jumps accordingly. 
If you play negative games, you need a strategy that allows you to use them to
your advantage. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Well stated. Never be afraid to pull the trigger on a denomination switch at least a handful of spins a session. It's the best way to beat the torpor and drudgery of VP. Of course, I'm the biggest chicken in the coop.

[FloridaPhil]

Playing negative games is a challenge. The good news is that we are not doing this for a living, so what happens is not going to break us or make us millionaires.  My contention has always been that all gambling should be done this way.  I'm fine with others who may disagree as long as they don't try to glorify their decisions. 

[billryan]

Well, I don't just aimlessly hit the button like a slot machine, lol. I do follow and play close to perfect strategy most times and I do seek out the best pay schedules we can find on the East coast. This helps stretch my BR. Problem is as Phil has stated they are all negative return games here. So always playing perfect means you will be in the negative in the long run. Makes sense right? If positive games will get you positive results long run then negative will get you negative results. So, you have to throw the book to the side now and again and just gamble if an opportunity arises.

I just don't get this line of thought. If playing perfect strategy on a negative game gives you a small long term loss, how does playing imperfect strategy do anything but make you lose more?
I played TSP today and met a very nice Asian woman who played at breakneck speed. Generally, I find fast players don't engage in chit chat but she did. We were both playing quarter DW, but by the time I got to 400 points, she was over 1,000.
After turning $60 into $100, she switched to bonus poker and hit four aces. Soon her meter was reading in the mid300 range when she said she was switching to dollars. In about ten minutes,she was under $100.
There is no morale to the story. I suppose she could have switched earlier and got $800 for her Aces or not switched and reduced her losses by 80 percent.
In the long run, it shouldn't matter. $1,000,000 run thru a machine at quarters will produce the same results as at dollars, only four times slower.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]In the long run, it shouldn't matter. $1,000,000 run thru a machine at
quarters will produce the same results as at dollars, only four times
slower.[/quote]Would you feel any different if she had hit a $4,000 royal flush after switching to dollars? 

[paco13]

Luck can strike whether your are playing perfect by the math or taking pot shots and risks. Yes you may lose more wandering off the math path but you may also nail one of those pot shots putting yourself ahead more than you would of had you stayed your course. I guess the only way to explain it is that if the math train is gonna derail off the trestle and crash anyway why not take a leap of faith into the waters below.