Move or Stay?

[asteroid]

Hi Phil, since a 4 of a kind occurs about 1 in every 16 hands on average with optimal discarding in NSUD, I would suggest moving up in denomination slightly (dime instead of a nickel or an extra unit)  whenever you haven't observed a 4ofK in 16 hands (http://www.officedepot.com/a/products/2 ... y-Counter/).The probability of observing 1 or more 4ofKs in 16 hands is about the same (50%) as observing no 4ofKs at the point of 16 "trials" (hands dealt). Once you observe a 4ofaK after moving up in denomination, move back down again and repeat the process.Obviously you do not have to choose the 4ofaK as the cycle bet, you could choose the straight flush or 5ofK also - just calcuate the 50% inversion point as was done for the 4ofK (16 hands).










As I've stated many times on this forum, I only play single line deuces wild.  I play quarters the majority of the time.  I play 98.9% games or above.  To add some excitement to the game, I play $20 at a time and move to 50 cents or dollars when the counter reaches $40 and play back to $20 switching back to quarters. The odds don't change on the move.  Most of these moves yield nothing, but I have hit a number of higher jackpots doing this. I'm wondering if I may be hurting myself by switching around.  In other words, am I playing at the higher level without all the benefits?  My bankroll is currently big enough to play at the 50 cent level all the time.    Would I be better off to play 50 cents all the time and stop switching up?  I can't think of any math that can figure this out as you don't know when a $40 run will occur.Yesterday I was down $700 playing 50 cents,  switched to dollars and hit a $1,000 quad deuce and walked out up $300.  Getting lucky is a good thing...  

[FloridaPhil]

Interesting.  Similar to the Martingale theory. The problem I have with these strategies is they are too complicated and counting hands creates distractions and errors.  At least they would for me.  There is no doubt in my mind that using a strategy of denomination modification can allow a player to gain an edge on a negative video poker game.  I realize this is a controversial statement, but time and time again this has shown me to be the case.  If you can play positive games perfectly, Dancer's strategy is the way to go.  If you only have negative games available to you, you must play small the majority of the time to hold down your loses and use a system of betting bigger on a small portion of your play.  If you flat bet a negative video poker game, the odds will eventually take their toll.  Hitting a "lucky" higher denomination jackpot will put you ahead for a long time and these hits do happen.  Some say you can not base a video poker strategy on luck.  I say luck is a big part of this game and you need it on your side whatever strategy you use.  There was a time on this forum when my ideas were called "dangerous".  How urging players to bet small when our expert extols betting bigger is beyond me.  What is dangerous is moving up in denomination to recover your loses or consistently betting beyond your bankroll.  What I am proposing is a systematic strategy of playing small 90% of the time and letting the game tell you when to bet bigger with the remaining 10%.   It has taken me 5 years to develop my strategy and I break even or make a profit the vast majority of years.  Could I move to Vegas and make a living using this strategy?  Heck no, but I'll bet I do better than 99% of the players in my casino. 

[thestoiicone]

Moving up when you're down is also known as "Chasing Losses" which is dangerous for clinical addicts...as well as fevered hobbyists.....Just a friendly warning as someone who has let our favorite, arguably most addictive machine game, get out of control from time to time in the past. There's a line between addiction and fascination.....excitement and cyclo-mania....in VPworld....If you are consciously trying to break even with past/or current play--every time you play-- then you either have tmm [too much money] for bankroll which could probably be better spent paying off family members' trillion dollar student loans, or you are overthinking/overplaying a game that should be enjoyable....You gotta get that sick feeling in your stomach once in a while, but a constant gnawing is probably telling you to find a different hobby.....Especially geezers that are supposed to be retired from business/profession, yet obsess over bean-counting every penny at every turn....Remember, Dancer like most celebrity poker players, would be broke in the long run without book/endorsement/advertising/speaking/editorial income....Ask any successful table-grinding poker pro...

[thestoiicone]

Especially in this day/age when most casinos are basically viewing/treating vp players like blackjack cardcounters in terms of multiplier days/tier point/freeplay discrimination, small to nothing comps,....keep in mind the rooms/buffet are a write-off for the house whether you sleep or eat there////or not..........

[thestoiicone]

Take a deep breath, step back and take a hard look at your hobby----and quit or taper---while you're behind if-- necessary.....

[thestoiicone]

Signed, Your friend///which friend?///thestoiicone

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=thestoiicone].If you are consciously trying to break even with past/or current
play--every time you play-- then you either have tmm [too much money]
for bankroll which could probably be better spent paying off family
members' trillion dollar student loans, or you are
overthinking/overplaying a game that should be enjoyable....[/quote]Video poker is gambling and as such can be harmful to some people.   Losing is part of the game which is why I intentionally play at a financial level where nothing that happens in the casino affects my lifestyle or my attitude longer than it takes to drive home.To me video poker is a competition between me and the casino.   Some days the casino wins and some days I do.   If I flat bet a 98.9% quarter game all the time, the negative odds will eventually drain my bankroll.  If I play the same quarter game and hit a $4K jackpot after switching to dollars, my bankroll jumps accordingly.  This all assumes I switch at the right time and switch back when it's over.  Timing and luck are everything in this game.  If you are going to play negative games, you need a strategy that allows you to use them to your advantage. 

[thestoiicone]

Simple basic rule of financial thumb: NO {Food,Car,Rent} money allowed in the casino. It's on the individual as to what else is non-discretionary....Also, with the exception of Pick-a-Pair [Pick'em] which is less than 1%,you are always playing 3-4% below what you think---until, and only until you hit the royal.....Most don't realize that 9/6 Jacks is only 96% until you hit the royal....Do the long run math for those of us that have long dry spells without royals in any game. How often do we blow more than $1000 out-of-pocket cash before we hit a quarter royal....2k for 50c...etc.
A basic question one should ask self is, "Am I simply managing a bankroll for a video-poker hobby, or is my hobby playing video-poker like a pro?...and to what end with what means?"
Dancer and his avid readers/followers have blurred the lines over the years....Ironically, according to archives, the guy that got banned years ago with some supersystem supposedly quit.
Is this, or any post referencing gambling, actually being seen anywhere other than my account and your site center?

[thestoiicone]

I like the strategic apportioned up---but drop back down--ideas you guys are talking about...Another lateral idea, is increase volatility---higher bonuses--in the same denomination. Jacks/BP for the while...no luck...move to DB....no luck...DDB and so on in the same denom. Hit a nice quad or two, then drop back to BP or Jacks..etc The bottom line to the bottom line is discipline...

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=thestoiicone]Most don't realize that 9/6 Jacks is only
96% until you hit the royal....Do the long run math for those of us that
have long dry spells without royals in any game. How often do we blow
more than $1000 out-of-pocket cash before we hit a quarter royal....2k
for 50c...etc.
[/quote]You are right about the odds.  If Bob Dancer strategy followers win long term, it's because they hit the right number of royals.  If they don't happen often enough, they become long term losers.I don't believe in "Super Systems", I can only talk about what works for me.  I don't need royals to win.  What I need is jackpots to occur at the "right" time.  $1,000 dollar quad deuces spend the same as quarter royals only they occur much more frequently.  Math does not always tell the whole story when it comes to video poker.