VP in 2017

[asteroid]

Yes Phil. When a fair coin is tossed an infinite number of times, the probability of not observing 5 consecutive heads (a winning or losing streak if you will) at some point during the infinite sequence is close to zero.

I believe the machines are random.  I also believe streaks occur.  I do not believe it is possible to profit from them any more than moving up in denomination if the drink girl is wearing red shoes or whatever other goofy criteria you want to use. The difference is I recognize that some players enjoy doing things that mathematics says is counterproductive.  This forum has a history of conflict.  We are here to discuss video poker, not denigrate players because they play different from optimal.  We should point out the deficiencies in their play, but not insult them just to make ourselves feel superior.We should welcome all opinions to this website, including ones we don't agree with.   This website says "Learn" at the top of the heading.  How can anyone learn anything if they are afraid to ask questions or post for fear of being insulted?   Think about it...  

[FloridaPhil]

The most efficient way to play this game is to play the best odds you can find with computer perfect strategy.  It's often the most boring.  Every time you deviate from perfect play strategy you give up some return.  If the cost is worth whatever other benefits you gain from it, go for it.   Math is infallible, but it does not factor in human thoughts or desires.  Some say these thoughts are your enemy.  I say it depends upon why you are playing in the first place.

[billryan]

The only insult in this entire thread, outside of a quote by Fa La La La La.... La la la la is by Phil. The only attacks are by Phil. Naturally.
But then he pulls his usual victim card, pleading for understanding. He's only doing this for the newcomers. Someone needs to stand up for the voiceless.
Fa La La La La.... La la la la made all sorts of goofy statements. Stuff like if you have four to a flush and a 5 of clubs, you'll draw another 5 almost half the time.
Or two pair and a 6. Discard the 6 and half the time you'll draw another 6.
His claim was not that these occur randomly, but that the machines are programmed to do that.
His proof, such as it was, consisted of scattered handmade notes. He admitted he couldn't duplicate his results but insisted he was correct.
Why in the Wide World of Sports would anyone think this fraud should be discussed with newcomers?
If anything, wise old veterans like Phil should be discouraging newcomers from chasing nonsense and learning the game right.

[FloridaPhil]

Billy, how many times would you like me to say I agree with you?   Mr. Fa La La La La.... La la la la obviously fell into a common trap thinking anyone or anything was in control of his card destiny.  No one knows what the next hand will bring, not mathematics, not me, not you, not Bob Dancer, no one.  When you play video poker you are betting your selection will be right and no mathematical formula, strategy, methodology or personality can make it so.    That's gambling...  We agree almost totally.  The only difference is I think it's OK for someone to play their own way with their own money as long as they realize the consequences.  You seem to think it's a capital offense.  Let's stop bickering.  You can say you won if it makes you feel better.  

[jsm2016]

I think "hot" and "cold" machines are a superstition and that turning the denomination up or down because you think a machine is "running hot" is not mathematically sound. The return for NSUD and full-pay JoB is 99.726% and 99.543%, respectively, with good strategy. Whether you play quarters, half dollars, or dollars does not affect the return but instead changes the "fun factor." A quarter JoB player's single-hand "fun factor" is 19.5, but that same player who jumps to dollar play will experience a multiplier effect and a real roller coaster at 78 effective volatility.I wrote Bob Dancer regarding quarter play and his response was (1) EV is king, and (2) get a bigger bankroll. He spoke of my current day's "score" as if quarter play will never sustain an income, and I agree. There was no discussion of temperature, chimeras, qabbalah, magick, etc...just error-free play, adequate coverage, and an implicit suggestion to play the best games possible. Superstition is dangerous and can really drive you mad (if you believe it!)

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=jsm2016]I wrote Bob Dancer regarding quarter play and his response was (1) EV is king, and (2) get a bigger bankroll.  He spoke of my current day's "score" as if quarter play will never sustain an income, and I agree.[/quote]No one that I know of ever said you could sustain an income by playing quarters.  Players who play quarters play at that denomination for a reason.  Some have limited bankrolls, some are playing for fun and others have moral issues with gambling in general so they limit their play.  "Get a bigger bankroll" is Bob Dancer's way of saying you can't win unless you risk a lot of money.  That is exactly what the casino wants you to believe.After 10 years of trying, I can tell you that you will never be able to capitalize on hot machines, streaks, superstition, lucky shirts or any other luck based strategy.  Play the best games you can find.  Learn to play them as perfect as you can.  Enjoy the game as "entertainment" and don't get sucked into the casino's trap.If we gave a million dollars to 1000 players and told them to play VP for a hundred years, how many of them would have paid their rent on their winnings alone? My bet is the casino would have most if not all of the money.

[olds442jetaway]

The answer of course is zero. I also think that Phil has posted countless times to tell people to learn the proper strategy and play accordingly. That is my advice as well. Why turn a 99% game into a 90% game or worse by not learning the rules of the road. Things like pot shots are done to enhance the enjoyment and anticipation of the game. One should follow the same rules on strategy for the pot shots as well.

[ukaserex]

I think, if I read it correctly, in Mississippi, games that accept multiple denominations do act differently with different credit values.

Theoretically, all the machines are supposed to pay back a given percentage. But - it's not machine specific, but collectively - at least, that's what my understanding is. [This should take you to Mississippi's rules. Within it, I'm pretty sure I read that if you're playing $1, the expected return is different than if you're playing .25

[FloridaPhil]

I believe the payback on all Class III video poker machines is based on the payable regardless of the number of hands played.  The only thing different about Mississippi VP machines is the 3% State tax on hand pays.  They collect it as soon as you win it.