Is Dancerology based on 95% RNG?

[asteroid]

The explanation is as follows: A player got super lucky using optimal discarding and this person leveraged his newfound wealth to publish lots of books and develop vp software. Those that crash and burned got out of vp or at least didn't go on to publish books and code software.I'm still perplexed why Bob Dancer---and only Bob Dancer--starting out with pockets 20 years ago...shallower than many avid, focused players on this site.....can win so much...for so long.....completely unrivaled......simply playing video-poker with the same strategies shared with millions of others since 1997........Regardless of level or denomination, paytables and comps----virtually everyone has ended up a loser.....long-term...
Stick that in a statistical pipe and see how it smokes....

[rapidbison]

And please factor in Mr. Dancer only play necessarily-taxable denominations--when mathematically explaining how he possibly plays "full-pay"......Does he cleverly omit his bankroll for video-poker play---is combined [synonymous]with---his overall commercial video-poker empire....in which case he plays and "wins" several thousands of percent....which makes his "continued success" at the machine...at the very least-misleading...

[New2vp]

Please see New2vp's explanation which describes what the 95% means - basically it is a confidence interval based on the chi-square test with a type 1 error (p-value) of 5%.Asteroid, thanks for the excellent synopsis.  I can see by your use of terms that you know what you are talking about.  I don't know how long you have been reading the forum, but the technique of starting new threads to avoid explanations given in other threads isn't new for these types of arguments.  It has been employed before by posters intent on generating misinformation, often using ambiguous language so that the ill-conceived assertions, comments, and questions lack the necessary clarity for meaningful discourse.  They also hope that their previous obvious gaffes will not be as obvious in the new thread.  Best of luck to you.

[asteroid]

Thanks New2vp. I've been reading the forum intermittently for a couple years, but have become a more avid reader in recent months as well as a poster in these more recent months. I am certainly no expert in statistics but I love probability and it's application to vp.
[QUOTE=asteroid]

Please see New2vp's explanation which describes what the 95% means - basically it is a confidence interval based on the chi-square test with a type 1 error (p-value) of 5%.Asteroid, thanks for the excellent synopsis.  I can see by your use of terms that you know what you are talking about.  I don't know how long you have been reading the forum, but the technique of starting new threads to avoid explanations given in other threads isn't new for these types of arguments.  It has been employed before by posters intent on generating misinformation, often using ambiguous language so that the ill-conceived assertions, comments, and questions lack the necessary clarity for meaningful discourse.  They also hope that their previous obvious gaffes will not be as obvious in the new thread.  Best of luck to you.
[/QUOTE]

[FloridaPhil]

Over the years on this forum I have been one of the more avid Dancer pessimists.  It is impossible to know if his claims of long term VP profits are true.  In order to satisfy everyone, I suspect he would have to publish his tax returns over the last 20 years or so.  This is not going to happen and I wouldn't expect to him to do it just to silence the doubters.  What I do believe is that his strategy is sound.  I will refer you to my previous post.  If you follow those three points and play long enough, the math says you will be profitable.  If you fall short on any one of them, you will not.  There is no way to twist the math around or use fancy terms to disprove this.  Positive games plus perfect play plus adequate bankroll equals long term profit.The best course of action is to take him at his word and figure out why we aren't as profitable as he claims to be.  When Mr. Dancer decides to play a game, he tells us he looks at more than the odds.  Do the comps have value?  Is there cash back involved?  Free play?  Will I be able to enter an invitational only raffle?  What are the odds of winning that raffle?  The games he plays plus whatever other benefits he may gain gives him an edge or he doesn't play.  Now comes the hard part.  He also tells us he can play 100% computer perfect and we know he has a bankroll big enough to play any VP game he wants without risking his fortune.  Do you have the guts to lose 30K or more in an afternoon playing VP, shrug it off and keep playing?  In my case the answer is  .Frankly, I don't care if his story is 100% accurate.  I'll use his strategy anyway and while I don't expect to profit long term it allows me to enjoy the game, stay in great resorts and have nice vacations without draining my bank account.  Sign me up...

[New2vp]

Positive games plus perfect play plus adequate bankroll equals long term profit.Frankly, I don't care if his story is 100% accurate.  I'll use his strategy anyway Phil, I've criticized you in the past, so I felt an obligation to praise you for what I thought was an excellent post.Begging your indulgence, I've boiled it down to a couple passages.  The other words were also on point, but the truth of many of these debates really has nothing to do with Bob Dancer, as much as some want to be on his side or against him, regardless of the facts for either point of view.If he never existed, the first sentence would still be true.  It really doesn't matter what results a particular person had in a session, a month, or a year.If Bob Dancer were not promoting that first sentence that I highlighted from your post, there were others that would have and did.  Lenny Frome, Dan Paymar, the Wizard of Odds, Jazbo, TomSki, Stanford Wong, Skip Hughes are a few names that come to mind.  Some predated Dancer's writings.Keep up the good work!

[Tedlark]

Adding to New's list,in a secondary way consider: Jean Scott.

[billryan]

Where is the real FloridaPhil and how did Bob Dancer back his account?

[billryan]

   Adding to New's list,in a secondary way consider: Jean Scott.

Looking forward to her new book, which should be out this month. I am surprised so many APs talk smack about her.
I love her work.

[ukaserex]

I started to write a lot of stuff to explain this topic, to answer the question, but there's entirely too much for one post.

I will try to spend some time on this over this week and chime in my thoughts, that I hope will answer the question clearly and concisely.