How are odds calculated?

[Raner]

Hi Phil... Did you like my little chart joke of 54.54% casino edge. I was just messing with you a bit. But to be quite honest when I get on a machine that is in a cold cycle or I'm just off on the timing with RNG to stop it on a hand that pays anything, I feed like the casino edge could 54.54%
Looking at your very well detailed explanation above and I also know your pretty knowledgeable on video poker...
I got one question for you...
Lets just use Jacks or Better for my question.
If the House Edge is 0.46% and Standard Deviation is 4.42. What exactly does this mean to us as players.
Does it mean the deviation fluctuates +4.42 to -4.42 from the House Edge of 0.46%
or +2.21 to -2.21 from the House Edge of 0.46% Or does it have an entirely different meaning all together...

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Raner]Hi Phil... Did you like my little chart joke of 54.54% casino edge. I
was just messing with you a bit. But to be quite honest when I get on a
machine that is in a cold cycle or I'm just off on the timing with RNG
to stop it on a hand that pays anything, I feed like the casino edge
could 54.54% [/quote]Yes.  I enjoy humor, especially when it comes to VP.  Some people on this forum take VP way too seriously.  You would think the world revolves around some RNG in the sky (it doesn't, does it?)  Anyway, I'm not a math guy and don't have an answer to your question.  The example I gave is so simple a fifth grader could figure it out.  Isn't it amazing how some people can ignore the obvious?Everything I learned about VP I learned from listening to what experts tell me and combining it with my own experiences.  Experts tell me some of the games can be beaten, my experience tells me it takes a lot of luck to pull this off.  In my opinion anyone who would bet huge money thinking they could beat this game consistently is either crazy or has too much money.   I realize the game comes with a cost and I'm OK with that.   What's nice about VP is you can control the cost of the entry fee.  Play more lose more, it's that simple. 

[FAA]

40,000 hands (RF  cycle) of max coin 9/6 JOB (.456% HE) at $1/point40,000x$5=$200,000 Played     .456% of $200,000 = $912 Average Loss W Perfect Play40,000 hands (RF cycle) of 1 coin 9/6 JOB (1.63% HE) at $1/point$40,000 Played      1.627% of $40,000= $650.80 Average Loss W Perfect PlayThe
math shows single coin play beats max coin play on this game by $261.20
excluding comps.  If 9/6 Jacks or Better is the "Gold Standard" VP
game, what do you think it costs you to play 8/5 DDB, 97% DW or
worse? What if you don't hit your $4,000 royal on time?  If
you are playing negative games, making errors turning the game negative
or don't have the right amount of luck, the bigger you bet
the bigger loser you are. The mathematically best way to play
most games is to play as cheap as possible. As your bet
goes up, so do your losses.Yep. Go cheap, take a few pots shots before rushing off and call it a day before you bust.

[Raner]

I enjoy humor, especially when it comes to VP.  Some people on this forum take VP way too seriously.  You would think the world revolves around some RNG in the sky (it doesn't, does it?) 

Well Phil, As you and more than likely everyone on this forum knows. When you go past the front door of a casino every machine and table game you see except for the change machine has a casino edge. The only thing going for video poker players is that most of us know how to find the percentage payback on a VP machine. If we like it we play if we don't we keep going until we find one to our liking. The players on regular slots don't have a clue of what the machine payback is.
But when it come down to the nut cutting in my opinion.
We depend on luck as much as they do. Because were both trying to beat a random number generator, we have to be lucky enough to stop it in a winning hand combination.
If you know 100% VP strategy, But you keep drawing dead hands there is no strategy to apply when you have to sweep the hand or your holding a no paying pair, or one high card. When you hit the draw button on this situation the only thing that going to help you is LUCK...

   

[billryan]

Math is hard. It's even harder when people use false premises to try to prove their points.
What's the old saying?
Figures don't lie but.........

[OTABILL]

Math is hard. It's even harder when people use false premises to try to prove their points.
What's the old saying?
Figures don't lie but.........

The old saying is that there are lies, damnable lies and statistics. My experience playing VP since 2005 (albeit sparingly the last few years in casinos) validates the saying premise. Our results are the reverse of what they theoretically would be based on paytables.

[billryan]

So, rather than admit that you have holes in your game, it must be the game itself is defective.

[billryan]

40,000 hands (RF  cycle) of max coin 9/6 JOB (.456% HE) at $1/point40,000x$5=$200,000 Played     .456% of $200,000 = $912 Average Loss W Perfect Play40,000 hands (RF cycle) of 1 coin 9/6 JOB (1.63% HE) at $1/point$40,000 Played      1.627% of $40,000= $650.80 Average Loss W Perfect PlayThe
math shows single coin play beats max coin play on this game by $261.20
excluding comps.  If 9/6 Jacks or Better is the "Gold Standard" VP
game, what do you think it costs you to play 8/5 DDB, 97% DW or
worse? What if you don't hit your $4,000 royal on time?  If
you are playing negative games, making errors turning the game negative
or don't have the right amount of luck, the bigger you bet
the bigger loser you are. The mathematically best way to play
most games is to play as cheap as possible. As your bet
goes up, so do your losses.Yep. Go cheap, take a few pots shots before rushing off and call it a day before you bust.




Payback refers to coin in, not hands played.
$200,000 coin in at max pay is a $912 loss
$200,000 coin in at single pay is a $3254 loss.
Does anyone here think a theoretical $3254 loss is somehow better than a $912 loss?
Playing at South Point, with .03 cash back, the max coin player gets $600 in cash back plus whatever he gets in mailings, so his theoretical loss is now $312.
The person who follows Phil's guidance gets the same cash back and mailings, and his theoretical loss is $2654.
THE SINGLE COIN PLAYER LOST MORE THAN FIVE TIMES AS MUCH.
This has been explained on several occasions but some continue to claim playing single coins works better.

[OTABILL]

So, rather than admit that you have holes in your game, it must be the game itself is defective.

Excuse me, you have no clue as to how we (or others) play. In my case its not holes in my game but rather pure luck. In ten years of going to Vegas/Laughlin (haven't been there the last two years) once or twice a year playing the best paytables and using skills learned through win poker software, I have not had one royal flush on single line 25c DDB poker (nor has my wife). I have only had 2 AWAK. These are way off the expected results over the number of hands played during that time frame. Without premium hands, even with the best paytables, one can't expect positive results. Meanwhile, we have done better on machines with poorer paytables at local native american casinos because of premium hands though again, we have not had the number we should have based on the math. Ironically, we are ahead at cruise ship casinos, albeit with extremely limited play because of getting a progressive royal and AWAK on successive cruises.

The games are not defective and are random as advertised in my view. Its gambling and luck.

Quite honestly, there was no reason to insult me (or anyone else for that matter) or denigrate my skills without any basis. Think twice before making unsubstantiated accusations.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]Payback refers to coin in, not hands played.[/quote]Mumbo Jumbo.   I'm talking about hourly cost to play the game, not some theoretical figure in the unlimited future.  If you don't hit a royal, playing a negative game with single coin costs less per hour to play than playing the same game with max coins.  I'm not advocating playing short coin.  I'm pointing out that luck is a bigger part of VP than the math indicates and chasing royals is not that great of an investment.  Call us in 10 years and tells us how you are doing.  I'm pretty sure you will have moved on to your next get rich scheme by then.