How are odds calculated?

[FloridaPhil]

I'm trying to get my head around the question of VP odds calculation.  Let's take Jacks or Better for example.  The 9/6 5 coin Pay Table is 4000/250/125/45/30/20/15/10/5.   What formula is used to come up with 99.544%?   Is this done with a math formula or is a computer simulation used?  If so, how many hands are simulated? 

[Vman96]

All possibilities are enumerated and tallied.

In more detail, this is what happens.

1. All 2,598,960 deal combinations are examined.

2. The hold with the highest expected value for each combination is determined.

3. All possible hand results for that particular hold are analyzed and tallied for all 2,598,960 deal combinations.

Impossible to do by hand, but a well programmed computer can do it in seconds.

[billryan]

   Look at your VPW software, under analyze this hand.

[Raner]

Hey Phil... I don't think this is going to help you in trying to get your head around the question of VP odds calculation

[Vman96]

Are you seriously arguing that the paytable on a machine should list that "Nothing" pays 0? Isn't that obvious when one plays? If the house didn't win some hands, then it would be free money...

And most of the value from those 54.54% of "dud" hands are won back by "paying hands". The overall house edge is only 0.46% here.

[billryan]

Someone should offer a Gambling 101 class here.
I've never met so many supposedly experienced players who can't seem to grasp so many simple concepts.
Simple quiz.
You have to choose a number from 1 to 10. You lose a dollar if you are wrong. Win $25 dollars if you guess correct.
Does anyone suggest that the house edge is 90% since the house wins nine out of ten times?

[Raner]

I jokingly posted the chart image for Phil I know the casino edge is not 54.54% and I knew for sure he did too.(If it was nobody in his right mind would play VP)
But maybe you guys can help me out on something.
Using the chart image I posted.(Jacks or Better)...
All the information I find is based on the long term play. But I have never found anyone to pin point long term on a VP machine.
Do you all know exactly what long term is a video poker machine.
I've always wondered about the 4.46 edge being a constant.
Lets say I play 5000 hands in a session. Can you all tell me if the
4.46 edge stays the same or changes with the amount of hands played.

[Eduardo]

The edge is by definition an average. Why would the edge change? The edge is constant whether you play one hand or a bajillion. It's the mathematical average of the game, meaning if you take all the players who play a game over the life of the casino, the casino can pretty much count on making that return.The more hands you play, the closer your personal return will get to the edge. So you need to play quite a bit to count on that number, but even so, pay tables can make a pretty big difference even over a short amount of play.With 5000 hands played there is a wide range of where you are likely to end up. The more hands you play, the narrower that range gets. Think of a simpler game like Roulette.One a two zero game, the house has an edge of around 5%.If you spin once, does that mean you will win 95% of what you bet? Twice? Three times? Of course not! But if you spin a million times, you can bet you'd win pretty close to 95% of what you put in. Eventually your luck and unluck are going to balance out towards the house edge with enough play.What is "long term?"  Well, that depends on how narrow you want your possible range of results to be.But the edge is the edge.

[Raner]

Thanks Eduardo...
Very good explanations for my two questions...
I got it now...

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Eduardo]The more hands you play, the closer your personal return will get to the edge.[/quote]Great explanation. This assumes you can find a VP game with a positive edge and play perfectly over the "long term".  If the accumulative odds including comps are negative, every dime you put into the machine adds to your losses. The longer you play or the bigger you play, the more you lose.  You can read all the books you want, study VP until they offer you a doctorate and play until your last dime is gone and you won't change these facts.  Additionally, human lifetimes are limited,  This means that some portion of your results are always going to be affected by pure luck.  There is no guarantee that playing full pay machines will make you a winner either!  Not understanding these facts causes players to think the games are rigged.   It's not the games that are the problem, it's your expectations.[quote=billryan]Someone should offer a Gambling 101 class here.[/quote]Play 40,000 hands (1 royal cycle) of max coin 9/6 Jacks or Better (.456% House Edge) at $1/point40,000x$5=$200,000 Played     .456% of $200,000 = $912 Average Loss With Perfect PlayPlay 40,000 hands (1 royal cycle) of single coin 9/6 Jacks or Better (1.63% House Edge) at $1/point$40,000 Played      1.627% of $40,000= $650.80 Average Loss With Perfect PlayThe math shows single coin play beats max coin play on this game by $261.20 excluding comps.  If 9/6 Jacks or Better is the "Gold Standard" VP game, what do you think it costs you to play 8/5 DDB, 97% Deuces Wild or worse?   What if you don't hit your $4,000 royal on time?  If you are playing negative games, making errors turning the game negative or don't have the right amount of luck on your side,  the bigger you bet the bigger loser you are.The mathematically best way to play most video poker games is to play as cheap as possible.  As your bet goes up, so do your losses.  Comps can change this math.  That's why they are so important.