How are odds calculated?

[billryan]

[quote=billryan]Payback refers to coin in, not hands played.Mumbo Jumbo.   I'm talking about hourly cost to play the game, not some theoretical figure in the unlimited future.  If you don't hit a royal, playing a negative game with single coin costs less per hour to play than playing the same game with max coins.  I'm not advocating playing short coin.  I'm pointing out that luck is a bigger part of VP than the math indicates and chasing royals is not that great of an investment.  Call us in 10 years and tells us how you are doing.  I'm pretty sure you will have moved on to your next get rich scheme by then. 



   I'm guessing you got slapped around a lot as a kid the way you toss out insults from behind a keyboard. Maybe as an adult too.
If luck is so important to you, why concentrate on only half of the equation. You can have good luck or you can have bad luck. Your next card can be red or your next card can be black. In the end, they cancel each other out.
Why talk about earnings per hour when you are going to play hundreds of hours per year. It's earnings per hand or earnings per coin that matter. Why worry about earnings per 60 minutes? Why not per 54 minutes? or ninety minutes? 135 minutes? If one of your sessions is eight hours, why not earnings per eight hours? Earnings per day? per week? Per Lunar cycle?
Just as you assume you aren't going to get a RF in a normal cycle, somewhere someone will be getting two.
Hopefully, he isn't stupid enough to be playing single coins.

If you know you aren't going to hit the Royal in given hour, the best strategy isn't to play single coin, the best strategy is not to play at all.
Since we don't know which hand will bring home the bacon, it best to be prepared on every hand.

I just don't get why you repeatedly say you no longer play single coin yourself, but constantly advocate it.
If players are dumb for doing it, what does it make the people who advocate doing it?
If you believe the smart play is to play single coins, what does it say that you no longer do it?
Seems like a perfect example of circular logic.










[/QUOTE]

[Vman96]

Hi Phil... Did you like my little chart joke of 54.54% casino edge. I was just messing with you a bit. But to be quite honest when I get on a machine that is in a cold cycle or I'm just off on the timing with RNG to stop it on a hand that pays anything, I feed like the casino edge could 54.54%
Looking at your very well detailed explanation above and I also know your pretty knowledgeable on video poker...
I got one question for you...
Lets just use Jacks or Better for my question.
If the House Edge is 0.46% and Standard Deviation is 4.42. What exactly does this mean to us as players.
Does it mean the deviation fluctuates +4.42 to -4.42 from the House Edge of 0.46%
or +2.21 to -2.21 from the House Edge of 0.46% Or does it have an entirely different meaning all together...





Different meaning altogether.

4.42 represents the standard deviation in bets per hand. and 95% of results typically fall within two deviations if the distribution is "normal". And standard deviations scale as the square root of hands played. So for 10,000 hands of single line play, the SD of 9/6 JoB are 442 bets/10,000 hands. For 1,000,000 hands, the SD is 4420 bets.

So according to a "normal" distribution, your expected loss after 1,000,000 hands of 9/6 JoB would be 0.46% x 1,000,000 = 4600 bets.

And 95% of your results fall within 2 SD of expectation, so your expected loss should be:

4600 +/- 8840 bets

about 95% of the time.

This method of using standard deviations should only be used for large samples. The pay table in video poker is far from a "normal" distribution (ranges anywhere from 0 to 800 with wide-ranging probabilities), but over very large samples the sum of video poker hand results will approach a "normal" distribution via the "central limit theorem".

[paco13]

I think Standard Deviation would make a great name for a band.

Anyone have a spare Tylenol?

[Raner]

Thanks Vman...
I always wondered what SD meant when I would see it when hunting for VP information, Thanks to you now I know...

[billryan]

[QUOTE=billryan] So, rather than admit that you have holes in your game, it must be the game itself is defective.

Excuse me, you have no clue as to how we (or others) play. In my case its not holes in my game but rather pure luck. In ten years of going to Vegas/Laughlin (haven't been there the last two years) once or twice a year playing the best paytables and using skills learned through win poker software, I have not had one royal flush on single line 25c DDB poker (nor has my wife). I have only had 2 AWAK. These are way off the expected results over the number of hands played during that time frame. Without premium hands, even with the best paytables, one can't expect positive results. Meanwhile, we have done better on machines with poorer paytables at local native american casinos because of premium hands though again, we have not had the number we should have based on the math. Ironically, we are ahead at cruise ship casinos, albeit with extremely limited play because of getting a progressive royal and AWAK on successive cruises.

The games are not defective and are random as advertised in my view. Its gambling and luck.

Quite honestly, there was no reason to insult me (or anyone else for that matter) or denigrate my skills without any basis. Think twice before making unsubstantiated accusations. [/QUOTE]

I'm sorry if you feel insulted. I learned a long time ago that bad luck is what losers use as excuses and good luck is how they describe why other people aren't losers.
Since Standard Deviation seems to be the word of the day, when people get results that are several times outside the SD over ten years, the chances are they are the problem, not luck.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]I'm sorry if you feel insulted. I learned a long time ago that bad luck
is what losers use as excuses and good luck is how they describe why
other people aren't losers.
[/quote]I assume you are a "former" blackjack player for a reason. You took a few Dancer classes and now you are the all knowing omniscient of all things VP.  You don't know squat about the real world of VP.  You only know what you hear and regurgitate.   I assume you know a lot about "losers" as you seem to use the word a lot.   I'll give you that much as it takes one to know one.   Get off your high horse and try to understand that there are some people who play VP for fun and could do without your condescending attitude.  Constructive input is helpful to everyone even if it doesn't apply to them directly.  Bullying and insults are not. 

[billryan]

Hello,
My name is Phil and I am a vp addict.
I've also invented a way to help you lose less.
Pay no attention to math. It just confuses things.


Enjoy your special day. You have earned it

[Raner]

In ten years of going to Vegas/Laughlin (haven't been there the last two years) once or twice a year playing the best paytables and using skills learned through win poker software, I have not had one royal flush on single line 25c DDB poker (nor has my wife).
Hi, OTABILL...
When I saw your post, I felt bad for you all.
I'm not a Vp expert... What I'm posting is just stuff I found on the net and tried my best to put it
in simple words. To try to give you an explanation of why your having a hell of time getting a royal.
My favourite VP version for years was and still is DDB...
The problem with DDB is that it is one of the most volatile game versions of VP. It has a variance of
over 41 Plus depending on the version your playing, 9/6 Jacks or Better has a variance of 19.5, 8/5 Bonus poker has a variance of 20.9...
So what does this mean, Well, The short version is DDB is going to make you dig in your wallet twice as
often then the other two game versions.
One definition of gambling is: To bet on an uncertain outcome...
Lets forget about all the fancy information on VP for just a minute. Lets just concentrate on three things
for now. For the illusive Royal Flush you and your wife have been trying to get for Ten Years.    
First... On video poker every hand is independent of each other. The past has no effect on the future.
So if this correct every hand you and your wife played from ten years ago till the last hand you played
a second ago has no effect on what the next hand is going to be.
Second... The main thing that is getting in your way is this " Royal Flush Odds is 1 in 40799 and the percentage of hitting one is 0.00245%"...
Third... The Random Number Generator, To hit the royal you have to stop this sucker at the precise millisecond in order to get a dealt royal or have a chance to use your strategy to fill it in.
If I played VP for ten years without hitting one single royal I'd be thinking like you.
The realistic truth is the odds and percentage are what they are so there never going to change. Every-time you hit the deal button your back to square one as far as odds and percentage for hitting a royal.
The one thing you have control over is your "Timing, Luck, Whatever you want to call it" on stopping the RNG at the precise time or hand combination code for you to get a shot at a royal.
I know I'm going to get blasted for this but what the hell.
The money I play with is mine, Nobody gives me money to play when I use perfect strategy.
Over the years I modified three particular common hands of the DDB strategy.
I don't hold gut shot straights with cards that range from cards 2 threw 10...
I always keep the A instead of the unsuited J,Q...
When I draw an open ended straight that has two suited face cards or suited A with no gaps or one gap
I just keep the suited two cards.
I'm not saying this strategy is correct, I'm just saying this is what I do.
It works for me, I have hit a royal in everyone of this holds, and quad A's with kicker and without on
holds that I kept just the A. And yes I did hit one royal just holding the A of hearts...
In my case if I never hit nothing again till I die making this improper strategy holds, I will still
be way ahead because all the money I've won already doing it this way on this common hands...
The other thing to really watch out for is to make sure you just keep three to the royal when you get four
to the flush, If you play to fast you will miss it more often then not.
The more shots you take at royal the better chance you got of getting it. That goes for the A's also...
Hope this helps you and your wife a bit in your quest for your first royal on DDB...Just keep digging Buddy... Don't let the odds keep you down...
I'll, Tell you what happened to me ounce.
Playing Dollar DDB...
I hit a set of A's with a kicker. After the hand pay the attendant asked to please clear the machine.
I hit the play button and guess what the set of A's showed up again, Did not get the kicker though.
Now you tell me what are the odds for hitting a set of A's back to back. I'll bet you they are astronomical compared to the odds of hitting a royal...
That my friend was, I know that it does not apply when playing video poker but in this case it was "PURE F@#KING LUCK"...

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Raner]The money I play with is mine, Nobody gives me money to play when I use perfect strategy.[/quote]Great attitude to have.  The "strategy police" aren't winning either.  The best way to approach video poker is to assume there will be a cost to play.  Computer perfect strategy will keep that cost as small as possible.  If you are OK with the cost of your own strategy, use it. 

[Raner]

Look what showed up after I posted...