Flip and Pay VP Game Perspective for DDB Players

[alpax]

Flip and Pay is now available again

Flip and Pay Poker is the 6th game that was showcased on the Action Gaming booth at the 2016 Global Gaming Exposition. I read about this game ahead of time on the CDC Gaming Reports article from Mr. Dancer and it was expressed that this game felt potentially the most fun to play out of the new games.



To describe what this game is about, here is quick summary of what Mr. Dancer had to say about this gimmick game.

Source Link - New Video Poker at 2016 G2E by Bob Dancer

[QUOTE]
This was my favorite new game in this year’s mix. The game is relatively easy to understand without software, and the idea is different and interesting.
This is a 10-coin-per-line game, where the machine will flip at most one card under the following conditions:
One card will be flipped one rank higher or lower, and always the same rank. That is, the 8♣ will only be flipped to a 9♣ or a 7♣.
This is done with a 52-card deck, so if there is a A♦ 2♦ on the deal, the 2♦ will not flip to an A♦ because there aren’t duplicates in a 52-card deck.
The resulting hand must be two pair or higher for flipping to occur.
The flipped hand must be higher in Expected Value than the unflipped hand.

For example, if you were dealt 5♠ 6♥ 7♣ 8♦ 8♠, one of the 8s will flip to a 9, giving you a dealt straight.
If you don’t like the flipping, you can unflip. Sometimes some of the flips may seem strange. For example, in Triple Double Bonus, assume you are dealt A♣ A♦ 5♠ 6♥ 7♣, the machine will flip to AA557 or AA667 or AA577. Whether the machine flips or not, good players are just going to hold the pair of aces and throw away the other three cards.
Most players will not be sure whether it’s better to be dealt AA667 or AA567, given you’re just going to be holding the aces. The machine likes flipping to two pair (correctly!) but which is better is a mystery to most players and many will unflip.
[/QUOTE]

The Help Pages to describe the rules of Flip and Pay







Strategy Perspective - The Single Most Relevant Part

The strategy perspective will be simple. You will pretty much be playing a custom 12/6 DDB strategy. You will be dealt 5 cards and then a flip will occur when appropriate. Afterwards you will determine which cards to hold to be the most important task before awaiting card draws and seeing the final result.

In order to practice, you will need the Video Poker for Winners software and create a custom paytable setting where Full House pays 60 and Flush pays 30 since it is outside of the traditional paytables.

Unfortunately the GOLD membership of videopoker.com does not allow you to play with a pay schedule where the Full House pays 12 for 1 since that game on normal circumstance will substantially return more than 100% which is not allowed in most gaming jurisdiction.

If are planning to play less than the maximum to enable the Bonus feature, you are practically playing regular 9/5 DDB. There is abundance of 9/5 DDB everywhere in the nation so do not bother with this game if you do not intend to play maximum credits for the feature.

If you are very proficient in the non-Nevada full pay 9/6 DDB strategy (I bring this up many times already with the other G2E games), here are the few adjustments you need to make to play 12/6 DDB proficiently in the order of descending EV gains.

When dealt 2 pairs with one of them being Aces, hold both pairs if the other pair are 2s, 3s, 4s. <EV Gain of 0.175 to 0.249 Credits>
Hold pair of Jacks and Queens over QJT-suited Royal <EV Gain of 0.07 to 0.144 Credits>
Hold pair of Jacks, Queens, Kings over KQJ-suited Royal <EV Gain of 0.03 to 0.111 Credits>
Hold pair of 8s, 9s, 10s over Jack High Outside Straight <EV Gain of 0.095 Credits>
Ignore the Jack-Ten Suited over Ace Penalty Situation <EV Gain of 0.02 Credits>
Ignore the King-Jack and Queen-Jack Unsuited over Ace Penalty Situation <EV Gain of 0.018 Credits>
King-Ten Suited over King-Ten-Flush Card, or just King alone if 9 appears on the 4th or 5th card <EV Gain of 0.014 Credits>
Suited KQ or KJ over Inside Straight with High Cards <EV Gain of 0.014 Credits>

The Flip Effect Explored

Most video poker players who play DDB are generally striving to hit one of the jackpot hand outcomes. A selling point for DDB players to consider Flip and Pay Poker is that the Flip bonus feature which will significantly change the video poker playing experience.

A. The Bonus happens more frequently than other gimmick games

If you have not read Mr. Dancer’s 2016 G2E Article, be sure to catch the part where the circumstances in which a card is flipped occurs. Videopoker.com has taken the game down for the time being for further testing, and I was not able to take the screenshots.

Out of the 2598960 ways to deal 5 cards out of a 52 card deck, there will be 651428 combinations where the Flip action will take into effect. That will be nearly once out of every four hands played.

B. Big increase in the frequency of jackpot hand outcomes (edit: scroll this post to the right to see more)

Just like the Magic Cards in Magic Deal Poker, the Flip card helps the player attain more favorable situations for them to get jackpot hands.



As you can see, the 2000 credit Aces with a Kicker (AWAK) is four folds easier to hit!

I've played this game for a few minutes and I was fortunately able to get the premium quad.



C. Biggest Booster Situations from the Flip Bonus (over 10 units increase in EV)

These are some high impact hand scenarios of this game



Game Payout of 9/5 DDB Flip and Pay

As a reminder with a 5 credit per line wager, it will represent a standard 9/5 DDB game (97.87% Return with maximum). The next increase in credits will enable the Bonus Feature and increase the Flush payout to 30 and Full House payout to 60 for a 10 credit per line wager.

Why is an increase in pay schedule necessary?

When making optimal holds after the Flip card is evaluated, if the pay schedule remains at 45 for Full House and 25 for Flush it will increase the payout from 97.87% to 189.46%. While that may be a hefty increase, remember you are also wagering double the amount but getting paid out as if you only bet 5 credits, thus the return must be halved from 189.46% which results in 94.73%

A 94.73% payout for Video Poker is considered atrocious beyond belief and should be avoided at all costs.

However when the Full House is increased to 60 and Flush is increased to 30, it becomes a revelation. The game becomes a very good negative expectation game to play.



The end result is that we have a return of 99.898% for 12/6 DDB. Many casinos now and days will be very reluctant to offer such loose payout, so most likely if you play this game at a live casino, expect to get 11/6 or lower payschedule.

Projected Payouts for DDB Variants of Flip and Pay

12/6 DDB - 99.898%
11/6 DDB - 98.355%
10/6 DDB - 96.814%
9/6 DDB - 95.273%
9/5 DDB - 94.730%

The Variance is 27.1

This game will make for great contests here as well as some short run luck at the casinos.

Best of luck everyone!

[alpax]

Flip and Pay Poker has been available again on the site for a few days now. Time to wrap up the insight.

Screenshots of the Help Pages added to describe the rules on the main thread.

From the Wizard of Odds webpage, Flip and Pay Poker has been spotted at The Orleans by the Wizard, a Boyd Gaming property in Las Vegas. From the picture taken, I saw that the Double Double Bonus pay schedule that is being offered is 8/5 DDB for quarters which becomes 11/6 DDB when the Bonus feature is enabled at 10 credits per line wager. I am unsure if half-dollar or dollar denominations are available. The rest of the insight will be based on 11/6 DDB should the player play Flip and Pay for real money wagers.

Payouts for 11/6 DDB Flip and Pay (Game returns 98.355%)

Note: The Wizard and Dr. Koehler has done an analysis of Flip and Pay, the results match up and have been verified.



Odds of the Flip Effect for 11/6 DDB



The Single Line Covariance of 11/6 DDB Flip and Pay: 7.724

Two Strategy Differences between 11/6 vs 12/6 DDB

a)     Pair of Aces are held and the other pair is discarded in the event two pairs are dealt (In 12/6 DDB, you hold both pairs of the other pair is 2s, 3s, or 4s)
b)     King + Ten suited with a flush penalty situation – In 11/6 DDB, hold King + Ten suited and discard the other 3 cards. If an unsuited 9 is also present along with King, Ten, and flush card, hold the King, Ten, and flush card (In 12/6 DDB you only hold the King)

B Connected Player’s Club

The player club for the Boyd Gaming family of casinos is B Connected. There is the standard tier status level of Ruby, and the next level will be Sapphire. To reach Sapphire, the player must earn 25,000 points within a rolling period (6 months for Vegas locals and 12 months for outsiders) at a rate of $1 of video poker play for 1 tier point.

There is a wide selection of good video poker games at The Orleans to choose from, but this will theoretically cover if the player wants to play 11/6 DDB Flip and Pay to get to Sapphire status.
After Sapphire, the Emerald status requires 250,000 points. To achieve that status, repeat the unit of play to earn Sapphire 9 additional times within the rolling period. I do not know what it takes to get into the invite-only Onyx tier for B Connected.

Multiline Play – In order to play the bonus feature, all lines have to be played either in 1, 3, 5, or 10 lines

Three Play

3334 Rounds at 30 quarter credits per play will be needed for Sapphire Status

Number of Payable Outcomes: 214
Total Variance: 14.222
Odds of W2G at 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 15047.5119045191
Percent Chance Player receives less than 30 Credit Wager on Single Game: 76.875%

Bankroll (37% chance of being ahead after 3334 rounds)

12000 Credits – 92.62% Chance No Ruin
13000 Credits – 95.52% Chance No Ruin
14000 Credits – 97.61% Chance No Ruin
15000 Credits – 98.48% Chance No Ruin
16000 Credits – 99.20% Chance No Ruin
17000 Credits – 99.55% Chance No Ruin
18000 Credits – 99.80% Chance No Ruin
20000 Credits – 99.94% Chance No Ruin

Five Play

2000 Rounds at 50 quarter credits per play will be needed for Sapphire Status

Number of Payable Outcomes: 1125
Total Variance: 11.623
Odds of W2G at 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 7033.8342558149
Percent Chance Player receives less than 50 Credit Wager on Single Game: 76.957%

Bankroll (38.2% chance of being ahead after 2000 rounds)

12000 Credits – 89.83% Chance No Ruin
14000 Credits – 95.09% Chance No Ruin
15000 Credits – 96.48% Chance No Ruin
16000 Credits – 97.97% Chance No Ruin
17000 Credits – 98.88% Chance No Ruin
18000 Credits – 99.31% Chance No Ruin
20000 Credits – 99.82% Chance No Ruin
22000 Credits – 99.97% Chance No Ruin

Ten Play

1000 Rounds at 100 quarter credits per play will be needed for Sapphire Status

Number of Payable Outcomes: 5046
Total Variance: 9.673
Odds of W2G at 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 1696.61524408305
Percent Chance Player receives less than 100 Credit Wager on Single Game: 74.963%

Bankroll (36.7% chance of being ahead after 1000 rounds)

16000 Credits – 94.31% Chance No Ruin
18000 Credits – 97.42% Chance No Ruin
20000 Credits – 99% Chance No Ruin
22000 Credits – 99.57% Chance No Ruin
24000 Credits – 99.91% Chance No Ruin
26000 Credits – 99.97% Chance No Ruin

[billryan]

Outstanding write up, but this isn't a game for me.

[damule]

I played this game a bit today on this site. I do not understand why at times when I'm dealt a pair it does not improve to 3 of a kind and other times it does. I was dealt 8d,8c,7s,2c,4d. Why did the 7s not become an 8s? This has occurred more than once with similar deals. Then I've had other deals where I've been dealt a pair and the correct card flipped to become trips. Is there something wrong with the program or am I missing something in the rules? I understand that when dealt a high card that a card will not flip to become jacks or better, but the inconsistency with the pairs not becoming trips at times is boggling me.

[alpax]

Outstanding write up, but this isn't a game for me.

Thank you Bill and I totally understand the reason the game is not for you beyond the low 98.355% return. I am not a big fan of DDB, but however if you watch people play VP, the vast majority play DDB regardless of pay table. I just think this will be enjoyable for those player.