How Much of VP is Luck?

[FloridaPhil]

My point is playing bigger causes bigger bankroll swings.  If you are
willing to accept that, go with the math.  I for one am not and I
believe many forum members are with me on this.  Recently a forum member
posted that he hadn't seen a royal in over 500,000 hands.  This is not
out of the realm of possibility.  This is also equal to over 10 royals.  If
you are playing quarters, this equals a $10,000 loss.  Bob Dancer sized
gamblers could lose a million dollars waiting for their luck to come
back.   I'm pretty sure someone that would gamble that big wouldn't be
hurt by losing a million dollars.  I do wonder if they would rethink
their strategy along the way?

[DougMobile]

I am a beginner but am learning as I go.
I really enjoy video poker.
It's some luck but it engages your brain as it requires analysis and a developed skill/strategy.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=DougMobile]I am a beginner but am learning as I go.[/quote]Video poker is great brain exercise.  Some people think it's all about mathematics and others just play for fun.   I think it's about finding the right personal balance between cost and enjoyment.  I think the most important thing is to find a denomination you are comfortable with.  If you are constantly worried about losing, you will have a hard time sticking to any strategy.  Even if this means playing nickels, I think you will be better off in the long run even though you are giving the casino a bigger cut.   Find a game you enjoy and learn to play it as accurately as possible.  Check the odds and try to find the best odds for your game of choice.  Odds are important, but don't push yourself beyond your financial comfort level just to gain some percent.   If you can play max coins, it's a better game as the royal flush bonus makes up nearly 2% of the return.I treat video poker as a hobby.  I'm retired and VP keeps my brain working and gives me something to think about during the day.   Casino gambling gets a bad rap.  It's true some people are hurt by gambling, others find it enjoyable entertainment.  Video Poker is the same game no matter what size your bet.  When I was younger I looked down my nose at old people playing single coin quarters.  Now I realize they may have been smarter than me.There are those on this forum who play VP for profit.  I'm not overly concerned with making money although I do find much of their strategy useful.  VP games where the player has an advantage are very rare.  What I choose to do is get as much enjoyment I can out of the game for the least amount of money.  At the end of the day what happens happens. 

[billryan]

   Where did you read that Bob said ten percent of VP is luck?
I tried searching for it, and the only reference google has to it come back to your posts.
I looked through three books of Dancers and see nothing remotely like that, so where did you get this quote from?

[FloridaPhil]

OK.  How much of VP do you think is luck and how much is skill?

[billryan]

It doesn't matter what I think. You claim bob said it was ten percent. I can't find where he said it. Please point out where he said it. I'd be shocked if he did.
I've always found luck favors the well prepared, but that is neither here nor there.

[FloridaPhil]

Let me help you out.VP game odds are a mathematical representation of the average return of a game calculated over an infinite number of hands over an infinite period of time.  Over a lifetime of play, some players will earn more than the calculated return and some less.  As long as one person has the ability to earn a return different than the calculated odds, "luck" is part of the VP game.   These "luck" percentages can be significant in some situations.  For example, suppose you are going to play Russian Roulette with a Smith and Wesson Model 29.  This is a six shot .44 Magnum handgun.   The odds of hitting the live bullet are 1 in 6 or 16.666% (not Biblical, but interesting never-the-less).   If you believe the math, you have a 83.334% chance of surviving one round of the game.  The odds are the same each time you play a round.  I don't know about you, but this is important information.  To me losing a million dollars playing VP is about he same as getting your head blown off.   This is silly of course, but it does prove that luck matters.  I'm smart enough not to gamble that big, but there is a point where the risk is not worth the consequences and that point varies with the each individual player.

[billryan]

If you want to help me out, point out where Dancer said what you claimed he said.
The rest is just blather.

As for luck, I believe there are two types. Good and bad. Your next card can be "lucky", or it can be "unlucky", it can be red or it can be black.
If a billion people draw a billion cards each, the number of red cards will closely equate the number of black. Anyone one individual will end up with a majority of red cards.
Was he lucky or unlucky?

Here is one for you. In pre-WW1 days, flushes weren't yet invented. A man draws what today is a Royal Flush but loses to a pair of Eights. Was he lucky or unlucky?

[Onenickelmiracl]

What is the expression or saying, people value keeping what they have over the potential for gain? It applies.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BillRyan]Here is one for you. In pre-WW1 days, flushes weren't yet invented. A
man draws what today is a Royal Flush but loses to a pair of Eights.
Was he lucky or unlucky?[/quote]Good example.  Here's one for you.   A guy and his wife walk into the MGM Grand back in 2000.   He determines the VP games are positive and has the guts to bet big based on his beliefs.  They win over one million dollars playing VP in 6 months.  Were they lucky or did they somehow force the machines to pay up?  What if they lost a million dollars?  On page 231 of his book Million Dollar Video Poker, Bob say this attempt at the $100 machine was a pot shot.   He justified taking it by stating he was unquestionably a favorite in the game and he had a definite loss limit that he would stick to.  Why would he establish a loss limit if the math said the game was positive? Because he didn't know if he would be that lucky that time or ever.[quote=onenickelmiracl]What is the expression or saying, people value keeping what they have over the potential for gain? It applies.
[/quote]Suppose you were the person on this forum who went over 10 cycles without a royal.  Would you increase your bet believing that the math was about to take control?  If not, would you quit or keep playing?  Just curious.