How Much of VP is Luck?

[FloridaPhil]

I read some time ago on this forum that Bob Dancer stated he felt 10% of VP results could be attributed to luck.  In time your VP results will eventually be determined by the odds and your accuracy.   Luck enters the picture because humans have limited time in which to play.I think luck starts out at 100% of the game and slowly moves closer to zero the longer you play.  Beginner's luck happens because luck is such a huge part of the game when you first start to play.   This also explains why a monkey can hit a royal flush if he knows how to click buttons.  Playing the best games with the best strategy increases your luck.  Playing bad games bad makes it worse.  Still, there is a factor of luck in all gambling and some players are just luckier than others.  If luck is 10% of the game, does a 1-2% odds difference really matter that much?  Good odds and accurate play let you play longer with the same money earning you more comps and giving you more chances at a jackpot, but there is no guarantee you will hit your share.   What percent of VP do you think is luck and how much is skill?

[mammajamma]

A lot of it is pure luck. This Hot Roll machine is short on the flush but since I've had tremendous results playing it, I don't let that deter me.
I've been dealt 4 aces, no multiplier but several kickers.
Dealt several other 4oaks plus a dealt straight flush with an 8 multiplier.
I stick with TDB and play ten play dimes.
Not the "perfect" choice from what others say, but it works for me.
Strolled by it a week ago and saw that someone had cashed out on nickels with $940. Sat down and proceeded to play. After a few hands, got one with nothing to hold and up popped the draw and the multiplier. After getting paid, continued to play on my original $200 and held a pair of fours and then drew the other 2 with a kicker and a ten multiplier for 22,000 credits. (Had a few other paying hands.)
Did I go against all odds....TDB...short flush...recent big payout....?
Yep. Cashed out with $428.

[mammajamma]

Looks like the picture didn't come through. I'll work on it.

[Raner]

Phil... Lets say your game is DDB...
Let me share a little story first.
Back in the day when video poker came out.The game was Jacks Or Better, I did not know nothing about
the game except what I knew about playing poker with a deck of cards.
I was playing a quarter machine one day and a guy started playing a machine next to me. Out of the blue
the guys tells me, Do you know that very hand dealt in video poker is a winning hand, The trick is to
know what to draw for. I thought to myself this guy is full of it. But if you think about it, The statement
could be true if you could see the future to know what the replacement draw cards are...LOL...
Back to DDB...
You have to have so kind of direction on what cards to hold, The best way to do this is knowing the
strategy for the game your playing. As I see on this forum all the time math does not lie and I agree
100%. Knowing what the math advantage on any given hand to keep the correct holds is the way to go.
Now comes the tricky part of the game. Lets take a common hand for an example.
I can't tell how many times I have broken a pair of 2,3 or 4 keeping 4 to a flush on DDB just to have
the card that I dropped being replaced by the same card in a different suit. Leaving me wondering if the
forth matching card was waiting to show up if I had kept the pair.
The math is just giving you the best choice of cards to hold on a given hand. But timing between you and
the RNG is going to determine what is going to be dealt and what the draw cards are. So, with the RNG being completely
random. What is really at work here. There are two things timing and luck...
I would say you have to be lucky enough to stop the RNG on some sort of paying combination.
Then the strategy comes in to give you the mathematical edge on what your going to hold.
Is there really hot and cold cycles on video poker machines. When we enter a cold cycle is it
simply we are out of timing with RNG and not stopping it on a winning hand combination. And on hot
cycle we are simply stopping the RNG in on winning hand combinations.
If you hit the deal button and get dealt a Royal or you sweep a hand and draw a Royal, This would
be 100% LUCK... No strategy involved...
If you hit the deal button and get a dead hand you draw and still you get nothing, Then this would
be 0% LUCK... Nothing to apply strategy too.
So I guess luck can range from 0% to 100% depending on what happened on a particular given hand...

[FloridaPhil]

What prompted my thoughts on this subject was my recent experience with odds vs. an increase in denomination.   The casino where I play each week has two Deuces Wild pay schedules, 97.055% for quarter play and 98.913% for 50 cents and above.  From the odds alone, you would think the 50 cent game is better.  Unfortunately, the math doesn't tell the whole story.About 4 months ago I switched to max coin 50 cent play in an attempt to take advantage of the better game.  This switch was a disaster.  In one three day span I hit three $500 quad deuces and lost nearly $2,000 overall.  If continued, I could have hit a $2,000 royal and broke even or my bad luck streak could have extended.    I made the decision to switch back to quarters three weeks ago which immediately reduced my loses significantly.  This is easy to understand if you think about it.   Royal flushes make up nearly 2% of the overall return.  If you don't hit them on time, the bigger your loss builds and the bigger you bet the bigger this number gets.I fell into the trap of thinking the odds were the most important factor in my choice of games.  When making the decision to play bigger, I discovered I needed to take bankroll swings into consideration as well.  When playing bigger luck becomes more of a factor because missing too many royals, could wipe out any advantage.  At the Dancer level for example, one missed royal could cost you $100,000.  Missing 2,3 or 4 of them will definitely cut into your beer money!Like most players outside of Vegas, the games I play are negative with a built in long term cost to play.  Playing these games bigger means losing bigger long term.  My point is, odds are not everything in all VP games.  It is true my comps were higher at the 50 cent level, but I can only stay in one room a night and there are only so many free lunches I can eat.  For now I'm happy with a cheap crappy game instead of an expensive better one.

[billryan]

I guess my only thought is does Phil write this **** when he is on or off his meds?
A bad run on a 98.9 game convinces him that the 97.0 game is better.
Same old song, with a different twist.

[paco13]

The deal is 100% luck. The draw varies with each hand but still requires a good amount of luck IMO.

[billryan]

The deal is 100 percent random. That's very different than saying it's 100% luck.

[paco13]

You have to be lucky to randomly be dealt a Royal flush.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]I guess my only thought is does Phil write this **** when he is on or off his meds?[/quote]Billy, this is the type of post that we don't need on this forum.  It has nothing to do with video poker and everything to do with stroking your ego. Comments are welcome, personal attacks are not.  My preference is to have a video poker forum without the war, but it's your choice.For your information, I turned 70 this year.  I take no medications.  My blood pressure is 120/80 and I can walk 2 miles without a problem.  I don't smoke and I don't drink.  All my parts work as designed.  I've been married 51 years to the same girl I met when I was 16 years old. I have lived a great life and I am financially secure.  Call us back when you are 70 and tell us how that Vegas gambler's lifestyle worked out for you.