How Much of VP is Luck?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=case]If I play a positive game and play perfect, then yes I do expect to win.
Of course you will not win all the time but eventually you should be
ahead.[/quote]How long is eventually?

[case]

If you only play a few times in your life then you will never reach desired results. There is a difference between those who play once a month and those who play a few times a week. If you play regular then you will reach the EV. There is no magic number Phil but it does not take as long as you think. I believe Dancer said he has only been down a couple of years since he started playing full time.

The old example of flipping a coin 100 times and results might be crazy. However flip that coin even a 1000 times and you will see the ev get closer to 50-50. Flip it 10,000 times and it will be closer yet.

Phil if you are playing a 100% game and play a million hands you might not be at 100%, but you will be very close. You always want guarantees because you don't trust the math. The people that lose over long term either don't no the proper strategy OR are playing less than 100% games.

If you ever get a chance to run VP on a simulator you will find out very quickly how the math works. You will be amazed how close it runs to EV.

[DaBurglar]

I read some time ago on this forum that Bob Dancer stated he felt 10% of VP results could be attributed to luck.  In time your VP results will eventually be determined by the odds and your accuracy.   Luck enters the picture because humans have limited time in which to play.I think luck starts out at 100% of the game and slowly moves closer to zero the longer you play.  Beginner's luck happens because luck is such a huge part of the game when you first start to play.   This also explains why a monkey can hit a royal flush if he knows how to click buttons.  Playing the best games with the best strategy increases your luck.  Playing bad games bad makes it worse.  Still, there is a factor of luck in all gambling and some players are just luckier than others.  If luck is 10% of the game, does a 1-2% odds difference really matter that much?  Good odds and accurate play let you play longer with the same money earning you more comps and giving you more chances at a jackpot, but there is no guarantee you will hit your share.   What percent of VP do you think is luck and how much is skill?







Phil, I personally believe that VP, as well as all other forms of casino gambling, are falsely categorized and analyzed within the definitions of some type of legitimate financial exercise or strategy or action.....this (or these) games are NOT ways for people to "make money", even though for a select few that is what "SEEMS" to be actually going on.......They are purely and solely forms of "entertainment", and the value and utility of that entertainment varies from person to person.     The actual results of video poker games are mostly pure random chance (I'd say better than 90% simply random chaos.)   There is no "SKILL".....seriously, what exactly (or  where) is the "SKILL"???   It is mis-identified as skill but in reality it is just memory and money management that are the player-controlled elements to all of this.By the way, I do applaud your attempts to start good, dynamic discussions with threads and posts like these Phil.....nicely done!!

[alpax]

I was the one who brought up that popular science article on Thoughts for Beginners, but I wanted to enjoy FP vs BR jabs.

If you only play a few times in your life then you will never reach desired results. There is a difference between those who play once a month and those who play a few times a week. If you play regular then you will reach the EV. There is no magic number Phil but it does not take as long as you think. I believe Dancer said he has only been down a couple of years since he started playing full time.

The old example of flipping a coin 100 times and results might be crazy. However flip that coin even a 1000 times and you will see the ev get closer to 50-50. Flip it 10,000 times and it will be closer yet.

Phil if you are playing a 100% game and play a million hands you might not be at 100%, but you will be very close. You always want guarantees because you don't trust the math. The people that lose over long term either don't no the proper strategy OR are playing less than 100% games.

If you ever get a chance to run VP on a simulator you will find out very quickly how the math works. You will be amazed how close it runs to EV.

I feel you are the best at explaining these types of things to the people. Never can understand the reason people who expressed they are content with the way they play video poker as entertainment are so hung up with positive situational play. Its getting really old.

[mammajamma]

[QUOTE=mammajamma] A lot of it is pure luck. This Hot Roll machine is short on the flush but since I've had tremendous results playing it, I don't let that deter me.
I've been dealt 4 aces, no multiplier but several kickers.
Dealt several other 4oaks plus a dealt straight flush with an 8 multiplier.
I stick with TDB and play ten play dimes.
Not the "perfect" choice from what others say, but it works for me.
Strolled by it a week ago and saw that someone had cashed out on nickels with $940. Sat down and proceeded to play. After a few hands, got one with nothing to hold and up popped the draw and the multiplier. After getting paid, continued to play on my original $200 and held a pair of fours and then drew the other 2 with a kicker and a ten multiplier for 22,000 credits. (Had a few other paying hands.)
Did I go against all odds....TDB...short flush...recent big payout....?
Yep. Cashed out with $428.

sorry.....I see pic is still not working and no help from a message I sent

[billryan]

   What are money management and memory if not a skill?
Why do Hedge Fund managers and their underlings make obscene amounts of money if not for their money management?
Phil is right that a monkey could hit a Royal if someone taught him how to hit the keys, but does anyone here think a monkey randomly hitting keys would be a long term winner? Or even come anywhere near the stated payout for a given game?
By the way, the only person I see writing about winning all the time is Phil claiming its impossible. I've never seen anyone claim they win all the time. Maybe Fa la la la la... la la la... la., but no one else.
I've mentioned extended winning streaks, but if I expected to win all the time, mentioning them would be kind of silly.
Stick to Applied Math and The Law of Large Numbers and you'll be fine as long as you don't turn a 99.54 game into a 97% game for reasons that defy logic.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]By the way, the only person I see writing about winning all the time is Phil claiming its impossible.[/quote]You have me wrong on that.  I do believe there are long term VP winners.  I also believe good odds plus skill allows players to play longer which gives them more chances at a jackpot and I do not minimize the effect these things have on a person's results.That said, I believe there is too much emphasis on odds.  This is especially true when it comes to recreational players with a limited bankroll.  For them busting or going on tilt are much bigger problems than hitting all the hands correctly.  I assume most VP winners are playing full pay deuces these days.  Is the less than one percent edge enough to guarantee a win?  Does this mean someone playing NSU is guaranteed to lose?Luck, chance or whatever you want to call it is part of this game.  I believe in math, but the RNG doesn't always conform to the same rules.

[FAA]

TDB and play ten play dimes.
Not the "perfect" choice, but it works for me.
Strolled by it a week ago. Someone had cashed out on
nickels with $940. Sat down to play. After a few hands,
got one with nothing to hold and up popped the draw and the multiplier.
After getting paid, continued to play on my original $200, held fours and drew the other 2 with a kicker and a ten
multiplier for 22,000 credits. (Had other paying hands.)
Did I go against all odds? TDB...short flush...recent big payout....?
Yep. Cashed out with $428.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------You're much braver than me. I avoid the Recent Big Payout machines like they are radioactive. I also despise short flushers, ripoff 9/5 JOB. 

[FAA]

I looked down my nose at old people playing single coin quarters.  Now I realize they may have been smarter than me.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------With age comes wisdom. It's a negative game. Keep your powder dry and go up and chase a premium hand every ten hands. It's even more fun messing around with the scale for me.

[FAA]

Suppose you were the person on this forum who went over 10 cycles
without a royal.  Would you increase your bet believing that the math
was about to take control? --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'd become  immersed in the many wonders of my home town.