How Much of VP is Luck?

[ukaserex]

What prompted my thoughts on this subject was my recent experience with odds vs. an increase in denomination.   The casino where I play each week has two Deuces Wild pay schedules, 97.055% for quarter play and 98.913% for 50 cents and above.  From the odds alone, you would think the 50 cent game is better.  Unfortunately, the math doesn't tell the whole story.About 4 months ago I switched to max coin 50 cent play in an attempt to take advantage of the better game.  This switch was a disaster.  In one three day span I hit three $500 quad deuces and lost nearly $2,000 overall.  If continued, I could have hit a $2,000 royal and broke even or my bad luck streak could have extended.    I made the decision to switch back to quarters three weeks ago which immediately reduced my loses significantly.  This is easy to understand if you think about it.   Royal flushes make up nearly 2% of the overall return.  If you don't hit them on time, the bigger your loss builds and the bigger you bet the bigger this number gets.I fell into the trap of thinking the odds were the most important factor in my choice of games.  When making the decision to play bigger, I discovered I needed to take bankroll swings into consideration as well.  When playing bigger luck becomes more of a factor because missing too many royals, could wipe out any advantage.  At the Dancer level for example, one missed royal could cost you $100,000.  Missing 2,3 or 4 of them will definitely cut into your beer money!Like most players outside of Vegas, the games I play are negative with a built in long term cost to play.  Playing these games bigger means losing bigger long term.  My point is, odds are not everything in all VP games.  It is true my comps were higher at the 50 cent level, but I can only stay in one room a night and there are only so many free lunches I can eat.  For now I'm happy with a cheap crappy game instead of an expensive better one.


I am pretty sure I mentioned this before. I can't speak for Florida, but in Mississippi, the denomination you choose plays into your results.

The gaming commission rule book suggests that higher denominations pay off more often in slots. In short, on the same machine, if you're playing on a higher denomination machine, if you had the bankroll, you would hit more jackpots than if you were playing on a smaller denomination.

On VP, the rules are a little different - payback is determined by the pay-table. But, in Mississippi, I've never found a nickel machine that had the same pay table as a quarter or dollar machine. And, $5 machines are usually 6/9 or 6/8, unlike the $1 or .50 or .25, which are as bad as 5/7 or 5/8.

The higher denomination you can afford to play, that's the level you should play at - at least in Mississippi. Anecdotally, I've fared much, much, much better on $5 and $2 VP than $1 or .25.

Granted, that's likely due to that luck factor, as I play a lot more at the lower levels, generally only playing $5 or $2 with free play offers, hoping for a quick strike.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=ukaserex] I've fared much, much, much better on $5 and $2 VP than $1 or .25.
[/quote]I've tried it both ways and I can tell you I much prefer lower odds over higher coin in.   Everything works fine until you hit a significant bad patch, then hang onto your wallet.  A quarter royal is $1,000, no big deal.  A $5 royal is $20Gs.  Miss one or two $5 royals and you could be in a huge financial hole.  I guess I look at things differently.  If you hit a quarter royal, you probably would be sad as you missed one for $20K.  When I hit a quarter royal, I'm happy because I didn't lose $20K waiting for it.   No doubt about it, comps are better at $5 a coin.  On the other hand, because I'm playing quarters I can afford to buy my own steak dinners.

[billryan]

Suppose you were the person on this forum who went over 10 cycles
without a royal.  Would you increase your bet believing that the math
was about to take control? --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'd become  immersed in the many wonders of my home town.



That's misunderstanding math. Past results are just that, past results. The cards, the casino, the machine, the math, none of them know you are due.
If you flip a coin forty times and it comes up heads thirty of them, does the coin know it should start landing on tails since its a 50-50 event.
Does a VP machine know it owes you? Then why up your bet?

[billryan]

[quote=ukaserex] I've fared much, much, much better on $5 and $2 VP than $1 or .25.
I've tried it both ways and I can tell you I much prefer lower odds over higher coin in.   Everything works fine until you hit a significant bad patch, then hang onto your wallet.  A quarter royal is $1,000, no big deal.  A $5 royal is $20Gs.  Miss one or two $5 royals and you could be in a huge financial hole.  I guess I look at things differently.  If you hit a quarter royal, you probably would be sad as you missed one for $20K.  When I hit a quarter royal, I'm happy because I didn't lose $20K waiting for it.   No doubt about it, comps are better at $5 a coin.  On the other hand, because I'm playing quarters I can afford to buy my own steak dinners.


[/QUOTE]

You understand that one of the Commandments for being a successful video poker player is to scout out and play the machines with the best pay tables. You know it and choose to ignore it. It's simple math to figure out what you are giving up per hour played.
You emphasize hourly results, which are meaningless to someone like yourself who plays hundreds of hours per year, and intend to play for years.
VP isn't a short term game. If you aren't playing for the long run, you are playing the game with one hand tied behind your back.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BIllRyan]You understand that one of the Commandments for being a successful video
poker player is to scout out and play the machines with the best pay
tables. You know it and choose to ignore it.[/quote]You play the way you want and I'll play mine.  When you're paying my bills, you can tell me how to play.  Until then, mind your own business.

[billryan]

   I'm not telling you how to play. I'm pointing out to others how foolish they would be to play your way. You can play anyway you want. I don't care. It's when you try to convince others that your 97% payback is better for them than a 99.5% payback that I call you out for being the bad player that you are. Especially when you know better.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BillRyan]I'm not telling you how to play. I'm pointing out to others how foolish they would be to play your way. [/quote]Well, I guess we're even then.  I tried talking you out of that $800 rental apartment you are living in and it went right over your head.   [quote=BillRyan]So this whole rant is basically bull****,and you made up a Dancer quote because you thought it added weight to your argument?
[/quote][quote=Bob Dancer]"Any individual betting session may be 90 percent luck, but when you
play 500,000 hands a year like I do, it's 90 percent skill."
[/quote]By the way, you called me a liar for making up the story about Bob Dancer and VP being 10% luck and you didn't apologize.  I guess that takes too much class? 

[billryan]

[quote=BillRyan]I'm not telling you how to play. I'm pointing out to others how foolish they would be to play your way. Well, I guess we're even then.  I tried talking you out of that $800 rental apartment you are living in and it went right over your head.   So this whole rant is basically bull****,and you made up a Dancer quote because you thought it added weight to your argument?
"Any individual betting session may be 90 percent luck, but when you
play 500,000 hands a year like I do, it's 90 percent skill."
By the way, you called me a liar for making up the story about Bob Dancer and VP being 10% luck and you didn't apologize.  I guess that takes too much class?


   You think that statement somehow says VP is ten percent luck? Seriously? I guess I've been overestimating your intelligence. For that, I will apologize.









[/QUOTE]

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Bob Dancer]"Any individual betting session may be 90 percent luck, but when you
play 500,000 hands a year like I do, it's 90 percent skill."
[/quote]You can interpret his statement any way you want.  I can't tell you what happens when you, Dancer or anyone else plays VP.   I can only tell you what happens when I do and that's all I care about.  When I play VP, it costs me long term and I'm fine with the cost.  When I play VP bigger it costs me more than I want to pay.  What is it about this that you don't agree with?I don't know the Commandments of VP.  I never claimed to make money at the game except for the time when I played single coin and I don't try to tell people how to play with their own money.    I'm on this forum to relate my VP experiences and communicate with other players about theirs.  I'm not here to train anyone.  I don't have anything to sell or any books to promote.  If you are upset because of what happens to me when I play, I'm sorry but that's the way it is.  

[Lionqueen]

In January & February I couldn't lose if I tried. Then came March and I went exactly 6 weeks without a winning trip (I normally play 3 or 4 times a week). Then suddenly I'm winning again. Same machines, same strategy. I don't know what this is except for luck and it certainly seems more than 10% to me. Just saying....