The Gambler's Fallacy...

[FloridaPhil]

Finally, a great question.  Thank you!Mr. Dancer's strategy is based on only playing games with positive overall odds.   He explains that a negative game can become positive through comps or incentives.   He has also provided examples, some requiring very large wagers.  I questioned if any positive games existed in Florida and he told me they did at higher denominations.  He told me my problem was I wasn't willing to play at that level and that was why I was losing.   This is a totally false assumption and a perfect example of a Dancer half truth.  There is no GUARANTEE anyone will win long term playing video poker no matter what game you play or skill you have.  Chance is and always will be a part of this game and he knows it better than anyone.  As long as there is any chance I will not win long term, I choose to keep my money where I can control what happens to it.  If Mr. Dancer is willing to turn over control of his money to an RNG, so be it.

[billryan]

What players should do is sit down and seriously contemplate why they are gambling in the first place.  Is it the dream of making a lot of money?  Is it to have something to do?   Do you like playing a lot of hands?   Do you like air conditioning in the summer?  Whatever it is, adjust your mindset and your strategy to fit.   If you're honest with yourself, you may quit gambling altogether. 


Physician, heal thyself.
Reading your post from a few days ago, it sounds like the best part of you going to the casino is getting away from your house for a few hours. What is it that is there that makes you drive three hours roundtrip to escape it?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]Reading your post from a few days ago, it sounds like the best part of
you going to the casino is getting away from your house for a few hours.
What is it that is there that makes you drive three hours roundtrip to
escape it?[/quote]Billy.. this takes your posts to a new low.  This comment is personal and I am asking Webman to intervene.  I don't have a problem with you dogging my every post, but when you start insulting my home and my family you are taking it too far.  I believe you owe me an apology. 

[billryan]

Finally, a great question.  Thank you!Mr. Dancer's strategy is based on only playing games with positive overall odds.   He explains that a negative game can become positive through comps or incentives.   He has also provided examples, some requiring very large wagers.  I questioned if any positive games existed in Florida and he told me they did at higher denominations.  He told me my problem was I wasn't willing to play at that level and that was why I was losing.   This is a totally false statement in my opinion.  There is no GUARANTEE anyone will win long term playing video poker no matter what game you play or skill you have.  Chance is and always will be a part of this game and he knows it better than anyone.  As long as there is any chance I will not win long term, I choose to keep my money where I can control what happens to it.  If Mr. Dancer is willing to turn over control of his money to an RNG, so be it.






So this is the root of the problem. You are looking at it absolutely backwards. While there is no guarantee that playing a better game at higher denomination will result in wins, there is an absolute guarantee that playing bad games at small coins will result in you losing. In one game, you have a legitimate chance of coming out ahead, especially when you throw in the benefits your coins earn you, while your method absolutely guarantees long term losses.
Your method offers nothing but steady long term losses.
Eliminate the payout for the Royal Flush in JOB and you are left with a horrible game paying about 97%. Play full coins and you raise the prospects of being ahead tenfold, or more.
If you want a sure thing, play the ATM machines. They generally pay back 100% if you have the right card.

[billryan]

[quote=TedLark]I walk into a casino and lose the same $300.00 in a machine and walk out. Trust me; I'm not excited. Here's what excites me.  I get up early in the morning, drive an hour and forty five minutes to the Tampa Hard Rock.  I listen to 50s and 60s music in my car on the way.  I smile as I drive along because I'm not bored to death sitting in the house all day.  I get to the Hard Rock about 9 AM.  Play VP for 4-6 hours, lose some money, win some money, walk out with the same money I came with and drive home happy.  When I get home my wife asks me "How did you do?" and I say "I played all day for free!"  If it took a big win the make me happy or get me excited, I would switch to something where that happened more often. 
[/QUOTE]

Phils exact words.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan] While there is no guarantee that playing a better game at higher
denomination will result in wins, there is an absolute guarantee that
playing bad games at small coins will result in you losing. In one game,
you have a legitimate chance of coming out ahead, especially when you
throw in the benefits your coins earn you, while your method absolutely
guarantees long term losses.[/quote]I totally realize playing negative VP games is a guaranteed loser.   I also realize playing positive games does not guarantee anyone will win.  Unlike Mr. Dancer, I am not willing to "gambling" that playing at a higher denomination will make my results any better.   If I'm going to lose and the odds say I will, I want my cost to play to be as little as possible.  Betting smaller reduces that cost.  It's that simple.Billy, do not question anyone's family or home again on this forum.  Trust me, you don't want to go there.

[billryan]

   If you don't want you own words tossed in your face, try filtering them before you post.
Simple solutions for simple minds.

[FloridaPhil]

Billy,  I do not mind discussing issues related to video poker with you on this website.  I also don't mind bantering with you over some theory that never has any resolution.   However, I do not see what you believe is to be gained by insulting my family or my life when you don't know anything about me.  My father was a World War II hero who flew a Douglas Dauntless torpedo bomber in the Battle of Midway.   After the war he became a Sears TV repairman.  I had three sisters and my mother didn't work.  Things were always hard, but we had enough.   No one ever gave me anything and I paid for everything I have on my own. I started a small company when I was 21 and through hard work and long nights turned it into a successful enterprise which allowed me to retire in my mid fifties. My wife and I fund a family philanthropic trust that awards college scholarships and assists needy families.   You should know that I can do whatever I wish with the remainder of my life and I sure don't need to play VP for lunch money.   I consider high stakes gambling to be a ridiculously stupid waste of money.  I play VP for amusement and to keep my brain active.  That's all I want out of the game, nothing else.I enjoy being a Gold member of this website, but it has become obvious to me that you are here solely to run off everyone you don't agree with.   I have no idea why you took up this cause.  Perhaps you should work a little harder on your career so you wouldn't need to promote VP as a second job.  Take my advice and stop this outrageous quest you seem to be on.  If you and your buddies are making money playing video poker, good for you.  Most players don't and as far as I know are not interested in doubling down on their losses.

[billryan]

I am not the one who said they preferred driving for hours to avoid being bored to death at home, now am I?
Why write it if you didn't mean it?
A famous philosopher once said
" Wise men speak because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something."

[DAAnMAAn]

Sometimes it is a great joy to sit on top of a mountain and watch two great warriors thrash each other to pieces...to be patient until both are exhausted and torn asunder...then calmly walk down the mountain and eat whatever is left of the pieces!..
.but don't mind me as I look for my popcorn and watch you two behave like children and argue about stupid s___ until we can get back to video poker again. Now...back to the broadcast...