JoB risk of ruin

[Voodoo111]

Hello all!

Assuming these conditions:

1. perfect play/ JOB
2. 1 dollar machine/max coin bet
3. 1000 hand sessions
4. $400 bankroll
5. NO royals
6. No cashback/comps
7. 9/6


1. What percentage of times will you lose the $400?

2. What percentage of times will you win over $200

3. What percentage of times can you expect a winning or losing session, no matter the amount?

4. Disregarding the $400 starting bankroll, is there some type of bell curve (?) that can give some expectation of win/loss variance for the 1000 hand session (w/ no royals)?

Thanks in advance, pretty awesome site here. I do not own the software that could sort this out for me, any help is greatly appreciated.

[asteroid]

Answers in red. Data used is at the bottom. One hundred, 1000 hand sessions where discard strategy is 9/6 JOB, but game is modified to pay 0 for a natural royal flush.Hello all!

Assuming these conditions:

1. perfect play/ JOB
2. 1 dollar machine/max coin bet
3. 1000 hand sessions
4. $400 bankroll
5. NO royals
6. No cashback/comps
7. 9/6


1. What percentage of times will you lose the $400?
27% of the time you lose your entire bank roll ($400) at or before playing all 1000 Hands.2. What percentage of times will you win over $200
? 39% of the time you will be aboveyour starting bankroll by $200 at some point at or before 1000 hands have been played when simulating one hundred such sessions.
3. What percentage of times can you expect a winning or losing session, no matter the amount?
When playing 1000 hands, you will have 37% winning sessions (you finish above your starting bankroll) - so 63% losing sessions, when playing one hundred such sessions.
4. Disregarding the $400 starting bankroll, is there some type of bell curve (?) that can give some expectation of win/loss variance for the 1000 hand session (w/ no royals)?

You can use the data below to generate a bar chart or calculate variance. Briefly, here are some summary statistics from the simulation (when playing 1000 Hands you can go below your $400 bankroll - in other words, you would put your stool against the machine backwards, go to the Everi ATM machine to get out more cash and then return to the machine so that you could finish the 1000 Hands if you used up your $400 before playing 1000 Hands):            # of Sessions -     100        Bet per Hand: 5 Credits X $1 = $5.00                        Lowest Point:    ($805.00)        Average Low Point:    ($291.35)        Highest Point:    $905.00        Average High Point:    $191.00        Biggest Session Loss:    ($760.00)        Biggest Session Win:    $900.00        Average Session W/L:    ($105.65)    Thanks in advance, pretty awesome site here. I do not own the software that could sort this out for me, any help is greatly appreciated.

--------------------


Session #
Low Point
High Point
 Session Win/Loss


1
($270.00)
$175.00
$25.00


2
($530.00)
$20.00
($460.00)


3
($145.00)
$220.00
($135.00)


4
($390.00)
$230.00
($325.00)


5
($475.00)
$0.00
($475.00)


6
($435.00)
$195.00
($435.00)


7
($360.00)
$75.00
($160.00)


8
($750.00)
$125.00
($750.00)


9
$0.00
$725.00
$480.00


10
($110.00)
$400.00
$75.00


11
($385.00)
$5.00
($285.00)


12
($670.00)
$5.00
($630.00)


13
($605.00)
$50.00
($575.00)


14
($340.00)
$315.00
($340.00)


15
($105.00)
$175.00
$15.00


16
($745.00)
$5.00
($530.00)


17
($70.00)
$400.00
$395.00


18
($80.00)
$215.00
$10.00


19
($300.00)
$170.00
$145.00


20
($80.00)
$355.00
$60.00


21
($155.00)
$200.00
($120.00)


22
($105.00)
$205.00
($55.00)


23
($485.00)
$0.00
($170.00)


24
($645.00)
$100.00
($625.00)


25
($235.00)
$10.00
($180.00)


26
($50.00)
$335.00
$285.00


27
($90.00)
$350.00
$315.00


28
($410.00)
$125.00
($270.00)


29
($300.00)
$170.00
($115.00)


30
($100.00)
$240.00
$40.00


31
($395.00)
$35.00
($110.00)


32
($280.00)
$5.00
($280.00)


33
($260.00)
$330.00
$260.00


34
($285.00)
$190.00
$80.00


35
($455.00)
$0.00
($350.00)


36
($50.00)
$320.00
$265.00


37
($405.00)
$190.00
($220.00)


38
($20.00)
$515.00
$275.00


39
($15.00)
$905.00
$900.00


40
($205.00)
$265.00
$90.00


41
($5.00)
$760.00
$505.00


42
($10.00)
$730.00
$385.00


43
($115.00)
$205.00
($115.00)


44
($155.00)
$195.00
$185.00


45
($455.00)
$30.00
($265.00)


46
($400.00)
$85.00
($320.00)


47
($315.00)
$75.00
($195.00)


48
($90.00)
$320.00
$115.00


49
($255.00)
$65.00
($210.00)


50
($80.00)
$325.00
($80.00)


51
($290.00)
$0.00
($40.00)


52
($245.00)
$65.00
$55.00


53
($170.00)
$150.00
($95.00)


54
($230.00)
$205.00
$80.00


55
($560.00)
$40.00
($375.00)


56
($660.00)
$5.00
($530.00)


57
($360.00)
$95.00
($50.00)


58
($220.00)
$85.00
($40.00)


59
($370.00)
$35.00
($150.00)


60
($295.00)
$75.00
($230.00)


61
($345.00)
$75.00
($335.00)


62
($390.00)
$10.00
($100.00)


63
($280.00)
$165.00
$35.00


64
($615.00)
$30.00
($465.00)


65
($50.00)
$335.00
$20.00


66
($345.00)
$120.00
$75.00


67
($195.00)
$175.00
$140.00


68
($395.00)
$45.00
($380.00)


69
($410.00)
$265.00
($405.00)


70
$0.00
$495.00
$125.00


71
($75.00)
$375.00
$105.00


72
($345.00)
$115.00
($30.00)


73
($315.00)
$130.00
($310.00)


74
($805.00)
$0.00
($760.00)


75
($215.00)
$65.00
($135.00)


76
($45.00)
$230.00
($45.00)


77
($75.00)
$410.00
$375.00


78
($70.00)
$355.00
$255.00


79
($310.00)
$255.00
$185.00


80
($85.00)
$380.00
$285.00


81
($130.00)
$115.00
$40.00


82
($505.00)
$15.00
($215.00)


83
($245.00)
$345.00
($115.00)


84
($495.00)
$20.00
($240.00)


85
($585.00)
$0.00
($510.00)


86
($290.00)
$80.00
($50.00)


87
($735.00)
$25.00
($730.00)


88
($315.00)
$230.00
$140.00


89
($235.00)
$250.00
($175.00)


90
($230.00)
$155.00
($170.00)


91
($120.00)
$320.00
($5.00)


92
($150.00)
$355.00
($150.00)


93
($10.00)
$275.00
$40.00


94
($400.00)
$15.00
($245.00)


95
($710.00)
$85.00
($660.00)


96
($430.00)
$50.00
($215.00)


97
($335.00)
$105.00
($280.00)


98
($10.00)
$460.00
$310.00


99
($485.00)
$170.00
($435.00)


100
($285.00)
$105.00
($285.00)

[Voodoo111]

Thank you! Just what I was looking for. Much appreciated.