Not willing to take the risk

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
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player_34765
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Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2011 9:13 pm

Not willing to take the risk

Post by player_34765 »

I have found a game at a local casino in the area that is a positive play that I play at at least weekly. However, I find myself not wanting to take the risk to play at the max amount of hands I could play at to maximize my advantage even more. Part of it may be the tax forms I don't want to mess with and part of it may be I don't want to take the risk financially even though i have the bankroll for it. I know how to play the game 99.9+% correctly and i'm up a couple thousand this year so far doing it one day a week on average, however i could be up a lot more if I would be willing to up my coin-in. Does anyone have any suggestions on how to overcome this physiological hundle? I could play up to $60 a hand but I know I could lose my shirt short term if things go bad.

asteroid
Senior Member
Posts: 189
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2010 10:36 am

Post by asteroid »


Use video poker software to simulate playing higher denomination and see if this works. If it does then you can consider playing the actual game at the local casino at this higher denomination. You can figure out what risk of ruin you are comfortable with (say 1%) and calculate the bank roll required using video poker software or Sorokin's formula.I have found a game at a local casino in the area that is a positive play that I play at at least weekly. However, I find myself not wanting to take the risk to play at the max amount of hands I could play at to maximize my advantage even more. Part of it may be the tax forms I don't want to mess with and part of it may be I don't want to take the risk financially even though i have the bankroll for it. I know how to play the game 99.9+% correctly and i'm up a couple thousand this year so far doing it one day a week on average, however i could be up a lot more if I would be willing to up my coin-in. Does anyone have any suggestions on how to overcome this physiological hundle? I could play up to $60 a hand but I know I could lose my shirt short term if things go bad.

billryan
Video Poker Master
Posts: 4421
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:20 pm

Post by billryan »

You have to overcome the psychology of the game. Knowing the right plays and executing them are two different things. Will you be able to break up a multi-hundred dollar flush to chase the Royal?
I'm no expert , but what I see all too often is people who are very good quarter or dollar players suddenly get super cautious when big bucks are on the line.
Be careful when jumping up up in money.
In my case, I loved playing BJ at the $3-$25 level. Worked my way up to $25-$100, and then $50-$250 and found I just didn't enjoy it any more. What had been a passion became a job and with more money out, I'd often play scared, even when I knew playing smart made me more money. It got to the point where I walked away for a few years.
Stay in your zone.

BobDancer
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1112
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:07 am

Post by BobDancer »

Gambling bankroll and psychological bankroll are different. In order to gamble successfully for high stakes, you need to be able to lose without it bothering you too much. Some people are able to do this. Many aren't.Not having this ability isn't terrible. You've worked hard to earn your bankroll and most spouses value you not gambling it away. If you don't "need" the money to live on (and apparently you don't) and betting big makes you uncomfortable (which apparently it does), the simplest answer is to not bet big.


wildman49
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Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:45 am

Post by wildman49 »


I have found a game at a local casino in the area that is a positive play that I play at at least weekly. However, I find myself not wanting to take the risk to play at the max amount of hands I could play at to maximize my advantage even more. Part of it may be the tax forms I don't want to mess with and part of it may be I don't want to take the risk financially even though i have the bankroll for it. I know how to play the game 99.9+% correctly and i'm up a couple thousand this year so far doing it one day a week on average, however i could be up a lot more if I would be willing to up my coin-in. Does anyone have any suggestions on how to overcome this physiological hundle? I could play up to $60 a hand but I know I could lose my shirt short term if things go bad. I am in the same camp as you. I played $1.00/$1.25 bets on games 99.54% and higher from Jan. to June. Was up very nice at $2800. Then moved up to $2.00/$2.50 bets and found myself taking a bath and by Sept. 3rd down $3200. I get a lot of free play per month and should be in the black but the royals at this higher bet dried up on me. Have had 12 royals at the lower bet only 2 at the higher bets over June,July,Aug. Since the  3rd been just playing off free play back to bankroll. This will hurt me in the short run on free play but by the end of this month will be down $1800. Will then resume play. I also can put together a big bankroll but just not willing to risk it betting big. Tax forms also play into this and the state of MI does not allow write off.Stick to your comfort zone or the fun of the game will turn into a J-O-B

asteroid
Senior Member
Posts: 189
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2010 10:36 am

Post by asteroid »


Yes JOB can turn into a J-O-B at higher denominations for some folks ;-)
[QUOTE=player_34765]I have found a game at a local casino in the area that is a positive play that I play at at least weekly. However, I find myself not wanting to take the risk to play at the max amount of hands I could play at to maximize my advantage even more. Part of it may be the tax forms I don't want to mess with and part of it may be I don't want to take the risk financially even though i have the bankroll for it. I know how to play the game 99.9+% correctly and i'm up a couple thousand this year so far doing it one day a week on average, however i could be up a lot more if I would be willing to up my coin-in. Does anyone have any suggestions on how to overcome this physiological hundle? I could play up to $60 a hand but I know I could lose my shirt short term if things go bad. I am in the same camp as you. I played $1.00/$1.25 bets on games 99.54% and higher from Jan. to June. Was up very nice at $2800. Then moved up to $2.00/$2.50 bets and found myself taking a bath and by Sept. 3rd down $3200. I get a lot of free play per month and should be in the black but the royals at this higher bet dried up on me. Have had 12 royals at the lower bet only 2 at the higher bets over June,July,Aug. Since the  3rd been just playing off free play back to bankroll. This will hurt me in the short run on free play but by the end of this month will be down $1800. Will then resume play. I also can put together a big bankroll but just not willing to risk it betting big. Tax forms also play into this and the state of MI does not allow write off.Stick to your comfort zone or the fun of the game will turn into a J-O-B [/QUOTE]

BobDancer
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1112
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:07 am

Post by BobDancer »


 
I am in the same camp as you. I played $1.00/$1.25 bets on games 99.54% and higher from Jan. to June. Was up very nice at $2800. Then moved up to $2.00/$2.50 bets and found myself taking a bath and by Sept. 3rd down $3200.  You can decide to play or not, I don't care. (Personally the JOB of video poker has been very good to me. Your mileage may vary.) But be very careful of drawing conclusions from small samples.This time you ran well at quarters and ran badly at 50 cents. When that happens you're going to be down --- which is what happened to you. But that's a lot different from saying that EVERY TIME you play 50 cents you're going to lose or EVERY TIME you play quarters you're going to win. Sometimes your 50 cent results will be better than your 25 cent results.The best prediction going forward is how much the game returns, multiplied by your skill level, plus promotions, mailers, slot club, etc. If you can afford the swings, you should assume average luck going forward. You know that it won't turn out to be an average result this particular time, but you don't know up front whether the assumption will be high or low. There's no more accurate assumption going forward.

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