Odds?

[FloridaPhil]

Over the years on this forum I have made no secret that I play a lot of negative video poker games.  Mostly, this is out of necessity.   When I find better opportunities, I play them.We travel a lot.   One of our favorite vacations is to jump in the car traveling from casino to casino on what we call a VP road trip. We have taken these trips all over the country, always staying overnight in a casino resort whenever possible.  When we walk into the casino, the first thing we do is head for the video poker machines to see what's offered.  Most of the time we find the quarter games in the 97-98% range.  In Nevada, they are about 1% better.  Often we find ourselves in a casino we have never been in before.  Unless the casino is part of a bigger organization, comps are not an issue as we most likely don't have a players card.We are on these vacations for relaxation, entertainment and to play video poker, so we will play most any pay schedule we see.  Once in a great while we find ourselves in a casino with VLTs or where we don't think things are quite kosher.  When that happens, we don't play.The question in the post is "Do we win more when the odds are better?"   The answer is definitely "NO".    Our vacation winning is never determined by the odds.  In video poker or any legal RNG slot machine, anything can and will happen.  I have had the experience of losing while playing positive games for a week only the find myself winning big on some 96% game in another State.  We think recreational players place too much emphasis on VP odds.  Better odds are a good thing.  They let you play longer with the same money which gives you more shots at a jackpot.  Playing longer also runs more money through the casino earning you more comps, unless the casino cuts your comps for playing better games.   Whenever possible, we play the best odds available, but we are fully aware they do not guarantee we will win short or long term.There are 2,598,960 possible hands in a 52 card deck.   In most video poker games the royal flush makes up about 1.5% of the return.  There are only 4 royal flush hands out of the possible 2,598,960 hands.  Why would you be so concerned about a few percent  when the frequency of royals is what is going to affect the majority of your outcome?  The biggest winning day I ever had was when I hit 4 royals playing 8/5 Jacks or Better at the Beau Rivage in Biloxi and there was no skill involved in that whatsoever.Video Poker jackpots are determined by luck.  If you get more than your share, you win long term.  If you don't, you lose.  If you never hit a royal flush, you are a 1.5% loser no matter how skilled you are.  If you hit 4 in a day, does it make you an expert?  Do better odds make royals happen more often?  If you think playing a few more hands will help you to overcome 4 in 2,598,960 odds, maybe.   We don't think so. If you are a professional gambler betting the price of a nice home on video poker, you need all the help you can get.  I get this.  I'm a recreational gambler with a daily gambling budget that wouldn't buy a fancy meal in a South Beach restaurant.   I like better odds, but I'm not all that concerned if I can't find them.

[onemoretry]

There are 2,598,960 possible hands in a 52 card deck.   In most video poker games the royal flush makes up about 1.5% of the return.  There are only 4 royal flush hands out of the possible 2,598,960 hands. This is wrong! There are 2,598,960 possible DEALT hands, of which four are royal flushes. The likelihood of being DEALT a royal flush is, indeed, one in 649,740.

However, the likelihood of actually hitting a royal following the deal and draw are about 15 to 16 times greater, at one in 40,000 - 45,000 or so.

[FloridaPhil]

Thanks for the clarification.   Do the odds of hitting a royal flush change with the pay schedule if the game is the same? 

[Eduardo]

They do if you change your strategy based on the new pay schedule.

[Tedlark]

I disagree where FP comments that video poker jackpots are determined by luck. This is solely the case on dealt jackpots but on drawn jackpots perfect play has a major thing to do with it.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Eduardo]They do if you change your strategy based on the new pay schedule[/quote]Are the odds of hitting a royal flush on any given hand different when playing 7/5 Jacks or Better or 9/6 Jacks or Better?If the games are truly random, there will always be some element of luck to video poker over the time you are playing the game.  How much is debatable.   Unless you figure out how to rig a video poker machine, you are always at the mercy of the RNG.  The thing could spit out 14 royals in a row or go 14 years without one.I do not expect to win long term and I don't believe there is any strategy I could adopt  that will guarantee I will. The best I can hope for is to go home with money left in my pockets.  If it's more than I left with, I'm happy about it.  If not, there's always another day.

[FAA]

You should buy a very good meal in Sobe for $300. It may be a dry one, however!

[billryan]

And the seasons they go round and round
And the painted ponies go up and down
We're captive on the carousel of time
We can't return we can only look behind
From where we came
And go round and round and round
In the circle game

[Eduardo]

Are the odds of hitting a royal flush on any given hand different when playing 7/5 Jacks or Better or 9/6 Jacks or Better?















With the proper strategy changes, yes. But it's very close (1 in 40,168 vs 40,172) and I don't expect you to appreciate the difference since it's so small.In truth, over a lot of play, you and an "expert" are going to hit about the same number of royal flushes. The main difference is that by differing strategy and pay table selection, you are going to lose much more than that expert in the process, such that the royals do not overcome your losses.You see each royal as a form of luck (which is not entirely inaccurate) and necessary to ever come out ahead. An expert sees them as inevitable and only a small part of the picture.But that horse has been beaten dead so many times that I don't know if it's even worth explaining. You are about playing for fun. That's great. Me too for the most part. So why push your point of view over and over and over again with these new posts? You aren't going to convince the people who prefer an advantage style of play to become recreational players, and the other recreational players simply don't care. I'm not disagreeing at all with your "recreational approach" to the game. I think most players fall into this category. I just don't know why you say it over and over and over again. Like I said, most people are probably like you, but for some reason you are the only one determined to make such a point about that fact.

[FloridaPhil]

Fair enough.   Very well stated.  Why don't you start a new thread of your own?   We could use some new material around here.