What is the probability of.......

[FAA]

Wait, very interesting point to recall. I'm sure thrilled that my 4% chance of quad conversion occurred on Sat. $125 and fly!

[onemoretry]

Does this make sense? Is it a correct way of thinking about it? Not quite. The probability of flipping a coin and getting tails twice in a row is 0.25.

The probability of not getting a quad when drawing to trips is 22.5/23.5, or 0.9574. If you take 0.9574 to the 50th power, you get 0.1134, which is the probability of 50 consecutive whiffs. So, you're more than twice as likely to flip a coin and get consecutive tails as you are to go fifty draws in a row without converting trips to a quad.

During a recent trip to Seneca Niagara, both my wife and myself had streaks of about 100 draws to trips without hitting a quad. There is a mere 1.3% chance of doing that!

[FAA]

So next time I draw to triples, always good to run 4.26% through my mind. It is what it is.

[FloridaPhil]

Yesterday was a good day for us at the Tampa Hard Rock.  I hadn't been there in a while due to the storm, so I took $500 plus a couple of extra 20s I had in my wallet. While walking down to the non smoking casino, I stopped to take a $20 pot shot on a $5 deuces game. I won $100 on that pot shot and cashed out.  When we got to the NS casino, my wife's favorite machine was empty.  We sat down and she crushed DW for the next three hours.  She hit wild royals and 5 of a kinds one after another.  As I predicted she hit a quad deuce for $250 to go along with it.  As usual, I put $20 after $20 in the machine with nothing but bad memories.  I was down about $300 by then. so I started walking around the casino playing slots $20 at a time betting $5 a hand minimum.  I won another $100 in an 88 Fortunes slot and lost 2-3 more 20s.  I walked up to a big slot that I had never seen before.  It had 5 stacked games and said something about a Tower on it.  It was a 2 cent slot, so I selected all the lines with a total bet of $6 or so.  I went for broke and put in a $100.  The slot got down to $60 when the bell went off.  I'm not sure what happened next as I just sat here watching the machine for what seemed like 20 minutes while I kept hitting extra wilds and extra games.  In the end, the slot paid me $1,170, just short of a W2G.  On the way out I hit my favorite slot on the second floor.  With a $20 bet I hit a totally filled screen for another $300.This year has been so weird for me.  I can't seem to win anything playing VP.  As soon as I sit down, the machine goes ice cold.  If it weren't for pot shots and slot wins, I would be down thousands.  I don't know what the odds are of this happening, but I'm glad something is working.

[olds442jetaway]

Cool adventure Phil. Borrowing from you again...IN VP ANYTHING CAN AND WILL HAPPEN...Just don't have any of the 3 over 500k royalless or 4 50k quadless deuces streaks. Tho the math experts here and I don't deny they are at all and greatly value their input, would probably say what happened to me is virtually impossible in ones lifetime you and I see such weird events over and over again all the time. I'm sure others do too. Just last week a guy sat down to play next to me and on the 2nd hand playing DDB he hit quad deuces with an ace. he moved over one machine and while waiting ten minutes to get paid hits a royal for 4k. I struck out that night at Mohegan. Went to Foxwoods just cause I had 50 bucks in free play there at 3am and turned the 50 into the 500 I lost at Mohegan. The more you and I experience these things, the more I become a fan of pot shots. I am actually think of budgeting 20 percent of my session roll for just pot shots on different machines of all types. Haven't decided you though.

[olds442jetaway]

sorry about the typos....going in a few minutes to look at a 55 chev post car that has sat a while with a bad 454 in it. I will have to check out the frame real good. I still have a contact for a 427 with aluminum heads I would love to drop into that 55 if all works out. Its a first generation 427 in my friends 68 vette that he just parked years ago. At least its inside but moldy and yucky. I don't want the vette juct the motor....heehee. I'm heading up to Mohegan later this evening with the Mrs. We both have decent free play at both Ct. casinos and are looking forward to a nice and semi healthy New England Cod dinner. They have some of the best at two different restaurants at Mohegan. Of course mine won't be complete without a Sam Adams Boston lager or a good locally brewed lager or two. The Mrs. won't be complete without her dessert. Just keep me away from Ben and Jerri's ice cream which is just downstairs from where we will have dinner. I can't resist their Cherry Garcia hot fudge sundae's unless I've had a couple of beers first. Lots of less calories and fat in the beer. hheehhee.

[FloridaPhil]

Sounds like fun.   I'm working away on the 55 TBird.  We have the front end apart right now.  We're installing new control arm bushings and cleaning up the underside.  After that we're installing the big heads and an Isky cam.   Here's a pic.I don't know what happened to my  VP game.  Since last fall it really fell off the earth.   I never played slots before because I thought you couldn't win.   I was definitely wrong on that one.  I've won most of my money this year playing "Can't Win" games.  Good Luck tonight!

[olds442jetaway]

Beautiful Phil. nice top there too. Just back from Mohegan with the Mrs. She hit a Royal on nickels DDB. I was ahead on the Bonus Deuces Wild Spin game, caught deuces with the ace, but hit that early on and had a discipline failure later in the evening. The Mrs. didnt have one. Does the car still have the original 312? If so and you are going to use the original carb, the accelerator pumps on those are prone to leaking even when rebuilt. Maybe they have an improved kit now or maybe you are changing the carb. I can't remember if that model had an elastomer valve or not. Those go too and my 78 had trouble with the power valve, but I solved it. I guess the 55 is totally different. just recalling various carb problems I had with my ford carbs. The auto choke was always a problem on my 73 F100 302. I converted mine to manual. It was easy and foolproof. I think the original Holley on the 312 motor is a 2173 and less than 500 cfm. Some of the guys go with Edelbrock. Personally, I would just rebuild the Holley and put in the best kit available. There could be air cleaner clearance problems too with the Edelbrock.I think there is a kit to fix that too. Of course I'm assuming you are using the 312 since you mentioned the isky cam. Good luck. Sounds like fun.

[FloridaPhil]

This car is a 1955.  312s did not come out until '56.  This car has the original 292.  I have upgraded it with 312 parts.  It's running a curved '57 distributor.  The Tea Pot carb intake have been swapped for a 57 312 intake and 600 Holley carb.  It's also been converted to 12 volts.  With the 312 heads and Isky cam should make about 250 HP.   This TBird is a rare 3 speed manual with OD.  It's a driver.  Here's a pick.I hot rodded Ford Y Blocks when I was a kid, so they bring back a lot of memories for me.   I started out "broker than broke".   Cars and mechanical interests got me into the computer industry.  It's a long story, but 50 years later I'm still playing around with them.I like to drive all my cars.  I have to be careful what I do these days.  My back isn't good, but if I pace myself I'm fine.  I have some shop help to do the really nasty work.  My partner is a retired machinist and one of the best I have ever seen. He wants to build a '32 Ford Coupe from scratch.    It's a nice thought even if we don't ever get around to it.   Sorry for taking up the forum with car stuff...

[olds442jetaway]

That is a beautiful setup Phil. I had forgotten about the 292 being correct for that car. I cut my teeth on Mopar and British sports cars so my Ford knowledge is so so. I'm glad you didn't over carb that engine too. Just right IMO>. Heres a bit of trivia for Ford buffs. and I'll end with a vp comment. I used to own back in the day a beautiful 63 Ford Galaxie conv. Torquoise with a pretty rare 221 cuin motor that was smooth but much too small for the car. Same block as the 260 of course. Anyway, I never could document it, but the original owner I got the car from swears they knew someone in the Ford design team that delivered the car with a full factory tonneau cover. It sure looked original to me but I didn't have the original build sheet. I could stand a quarter on end on the engine of this car and it would not fall over. I sold it in the late 70s for not much more than 4 times the current scrap value car of the car today. It just wasn't worth that much back then. The dual glasspacks sounded cool though even though the car was a dog, it was beautiful. Off to both Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods tonight. If anyone else is going, maybe we can cross paths. Glad you guys and the car made out well in the storm. Hope the back stays stable Phil. I did mine a great disservice years ago by balancing 2 2x8x16s for the deck on my shoulder and compressed everything. Its light dumbells only now for me.