What is the probability of.......

[olds442jetaway]

Going 50,000 hands without quad deuces in either regular deuces wild playing airport deuces or playing bonus deuces wild with a 98.8 paytable. My style of play depends on hitting quad deuces and not worrying about the elusive Royal. I will still play according to the math rules. I'm only asking this because I have had streaks before without quad deuces in over 50k hands. Of course that crushes your bankroll on streaks like that if neither the Royal or quad deuces appear. I came close lately, but finally hit them in the 46k hands played range after about 6 sessions. Luckily, I had switched to dollars from quarters. I used to know how to compute this, but have long since forgotten. Thanks.

[Eduardo]

Roughly 1 in 13,372. Won't happen very often, unless it does.Take the odds of NOT hitting deuces and calculate that to the 50,000th power, then get the inverse.So, it's pretty rare. But the odds of going 50,000 hands without deuces are much better than the odds of hitting a royal in one hand. Just 50,000 times more painful because of the wait.

[FloridaPhil]

I hate it when that happens.  Hitting at least one quad deuce in a day's play is what turns the day for me.   My wife and I both play deuces wild, so we see a lot of streaks both good and bad.  Often we go 3-4 days without one, then catch back up in a flurry.  50,000 hands would be about 10 days for me.  I don't think either one of us ever went that long.  That would be awful.Olds, playing the way you do you are likely to hit one quad deuce that would cover 10 days losses.  I like it. 

[olds442jetaway]

So far, it has worked out pretty well. What I haven't done is stick to it perfectly. I think by not jumping around, I can keep my losses to a minimum. You may remember, I hate drawing to inside straights on regular deuces wild. By playing Bonus Deuces, I avoid that, but sometimes pay a penalty if lots of straights are coming in. On the other hand, if I hit the low number 5 of a kinds or 5 Aces which happens every single session so far, I am kept playing until I can nail the quad deuces. I am actually heading up tonight. I am going to try and stick to quarters all night and the same for the next session if I miss the quad deuces. On the third session and probably the 4th, I will switch to a 50 cent game. If I still miss after 4,5,or 6,sessions, I will just stay at the dollar level until they hit. Sometimes, I hit 5 Aces 3 times in a single session. That of course offsets not hitting the quad deuces since it pays 80 for 1. Even hitting them twice and a couple of low number 5 of a kinds has bailed me out to the good. Anyway, as we all know, there are no guarantees in vp and I probably won't come out ahead for the year, but if I can stay anywhere near even from now to the rest of the year I will be happy. Of course a 4k Royal wouldn't be too hard to take either. I hope this Maria which is nailing Puerto Rico stays away from Florida and us too.

[FloridaPhil]

No more hurricanes please!! 

[onemoretry]

In deuces wild bonus, you hit the deuces (including the deuces plus ace) about 11% less often than in Illinois deuces. This seems to make a huge difference in the likelihood of having a 50000 hand deuces drought. I calculated it at 1 in 4452 for that game - but I may have a mistake in there somewhere.

[Vman96]

In deuces wild bonus, you hit the deuces (including the deuces plus ace) about 11% less often than in Illinois deuces. This seems to make a huge difference in the likelihood of having a 50000 hand deuces drought. I calculated it at 1 in 4452 for that game - but I may have a mistake in there somewhere.

I get 1 in 4549.87 for 50k single line hands. Multiline is slightly different for these calculations but didn't bother with that. I think you might have a rounding error.

[FloridaPhil]

We played Deuces Bonus in Black Hawk a few years ago.  It's a very popular game at the Ameristar.   I hit 4 deuces with an Ace right out of the gate.  After that, my wife and I both spent the next 2 days pumping money back into the game with nothing in return.  We liked the game, but the variance was too much for us.  We weren't that sure of the strategy either, which contributed to the problem.I have no idea why, but I seem to hit quad deuces more frequently on the $5 machines.   It's pure luck and I could go another 10 years and never hit one, but there it is.  If I live long enough,  I'm going to hit a $5 max coin royal or quad deuce and I'm going to post it on this forum.  I had my annual physical yesterday and the doctor said I may live forever.  I told her I want a second opinion because I don't have enough money!  

[Waiting4RF]

I recently played 5 play JOB a total of 1800 hands and had 1 quad. My return was 88%. I had 50 chances of getting a quad from dealt 3 of a kinds and I got zero. I think that is within the normal probabilities the way I look at it. There is about a 1 in 24 chance of getting a quad from dealt 3OAK. On average, I could of had 2 quads. Flipping a coin has a 1 in 2 chance of getting heads. It is not unreasonable to get tails twice in a row. A coin flip cycle is 2 and getting tails twice is not unreasonable. For the quads, the cycle is 24. So going 50 tries without a quad is like getting tails twice in a row. Does this make sense? Is it a correct way of thinking about it?

[FAA]

Okay, what's your cholesterol? Im still > 200.