CS strategy

[OTABILL]

I need to weigh in here. VP strategy and CS strategy are two separate things. VP strategy entails determining what dealt cards to hold/discard to maximize the probability of a favorable outcome. It is unique to VP and differs depending on the variation of VP. A similar strategy apply to other card games. CS is a betting strategy that can be applied to slots, roulette, craps, etc. Apples and oranges.
Let’s also put to rest the idea that there is always a "long term." Theoretically that is the case. Realistically it is not any more than you can assume actuarial tables (the math/probability) will determine how long you will live. Life events can intervene. I posted months ago that going to Las Vegas numerous times since 2006 and playing VP extensively, neither my wife nor I have hit a single line RF even though single line represented well over 99% of our play and the math/probability tables predicted several royals given the number of hands played. Given health issues, it is uncertain whether we will return to Vegas in the future. If we don’t, there goes “the long term.” Billy Ryan’s categorical assertion that “todays results are meaningless, as are tomorrows or this weeks or last weeks” should not be taken as a sure thing as life events are not always predictable and the long run is not guaranteed.

[FloridaPhil]

Exactly...  When VP strategy software comes with a "money back guarantee",  I'll be a believer.  

[billryan]

That's where you are mistaken. The long run is always guaranteed. Your mistake is thinking you have a personal connection to the long run. It started before you and will continue afterward. All we, as players and or people, can do is to ride it to the best of our abilities.
I suppose you could be a drama queen and play each hand as if it were the last you'd ever play and hope to leave a jackpot to your grandkids, but I think we can all agree that would be foolish.
Bob Dancer posted the other day that if 40,000 people each play one hand, the results would be one third of the time there were no RF, one third of the time there would be one RF, and one third of the time that would be two or more. Someone who is scared would look at that and say -"See there is a one in three chance I don't hit the RF. I told you so". Ad nauseum.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=OTABILL]I posted months ago that going to Las Vegas numerous times since 2006
and playing VP extensively, neither my wife nor I have hit a single line
RF even though single line represented well over 99% of our play and
the math/probability tables predicted several royals given the number of
hands played.[/quote]It's easy to be a believer in VP math when things are going your way.  Not so easy when you haven't hit a royal in 11 years of trying.  Who on this forum would still be playing VP if that happened to them?  Not me I can tell you that much.   I don't have any idea how much money is in Mr. Dancer's VP bankroll, but I suspect that would even shake him up a bit.  Still, the math says there is a possibility it can happen and it did.   If you want to gamble, fine.  If it works out for you, be grateful.  It doesn't for everyone.

[FAA]

I'm floored. No RFs in a decade of LV play. Talk about under royaled! Twenty months for me and I'm furious. I would have folded on VP period.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]I'm floored. No RFs in a decade of LV play. Talk about under royaled!
Twenty months for me and I'm furious. I would have folded on VP period.
[/quote]You bet, and how would you like someone who doesn't know a thing about you say it happened because you aren't intelligent, disciplined or skilled enough?  

[FAA]

Brush off the carping critics. Just a bizarre bad luck streak. It's a dry heat there, but they must have their own personal dark cloud.

[OTABILL]

While our play in Vegas has overwhelmingly been $0.25 single line, a few years ago, after being disgusted by our results, one night we played a minimal number of hands apiece of $0.05 multi-hand and in fact both of us hit a RF on one of the lines. That’s why I specifically said single line. BTW, the combined value of those royals was nowhere near the value of a $0.25 single line RF. Goes to show how fickle and unpredictable VP can be. Brings to mind that one night fooling around late at night during a cruise we hit a single line RF. Again, we have only played a minimal amount of hands while cruising through the years.
My wife and I are recreational players. We have played VP for enjoyment within our discretionary budget. It is not, nor ever has been, anything else. If we get back to Vegas, we will play VP again provided it is in a smoke free environment. Same locally. Our perspective is shared by some forum members and not by others. To each his own. Peace.    

Just read FAA's last post. It's 98 here in AZ today and a dry heat.

[FAA]

Bah. The nickel RF seems like something heavy tugging on your fishing line. But when you reel it in, it's a shoe. At least you stick to quarters. I jumped to dollars. Higher highs and much lower lows. Progressive RF always seems to hit in my absence on Sunday. But if I stay on the bank for the day, I'll probably lose $100 and have a 17% chance of being on the lucky machine. Comps are crummy to boot.

[billryan]

In your numerous trips and extensive play, how many hands would you guess you've played?
It's easy to go 80,000 hands without one. That's 160 hours of playing 500 hands an hour. A solid month of full-time work. Are you anywhere close to that?
If you can't stomach the ride , don't get on the roller coaster.
Yet,in the end, the only people who get hurt on the coaster are those who get off mid-ride.