Martingale strategy question

[VPvideo]

Hi!
I'm brand new here and I've heard about the Martingale strategy and how it eventually causes you to lose. But I'm not so sure about how that can be. Allow me to use the simplest method to illustrate:

If applying the strategy to regular video poker. The simplest way to use it is to play for a 2 pair, which gives you your money back that you had lost up to that point. A jacks or better win would allow you to just repeat the play you just made. All other wins (3 of a kind, Straight, etc.) are pure profit. To start, here's the pattern:

On a nickel machine, play 1 nickel, then 1 nickel again. You're out 2 nickels. Then play 2. After that you could play 4 (or round it up to 5 to get the most from a royal flush.) Assuming that last play was 5 nickels and you lost, you're out 9 nickels (45 cents). Then on a quarter machine, play 2 quarters, then 4 quarters. Now you're out $1.95, but let's just say it's $2 to keep it simple.

Now to the dollar machines. Play $2, then $4. Now you're out $8. This is assuming 8 losses in a row, not counting jacks or better wins, which just allows you to repeat that play.

See the pattern? Now of course I was talking about nickel, quarter and dollar "machines" in a physical casino. So, what if you go online and do this and are able to find "high stakes" options where you could keep increasing your bets? The pattern would then continue to higher amounts. In this case, you would then bet $8, since that's what you're out after 8 plays and losses. After that, you bet $16, $32, $64, $128, $256, $512, $1024, $2048. Ok, now let's see where we are after spending $5,096.....

We've played 17 hands of video poker and lost 17 hands IN A ROW. Has anyone ever done that? Keep in mind that the odds are that we should hit a 2 pair every 7 plays, plus a jacks or better win every 5 plays. The jacks or better wins basically give us a second chance every 5 plays, for a total of 3 of them throughout this strategy, which means you would have failed to get a 2 pair 20 times in a row.

BTW, what I've outlined is what you could do with $5,096. If you had more like $41,000, then you could add 3 more plays for an initial 20 plays, with 24 if you count the jacks or better wins. Can anyone honestly say they've flat-out lost 20 plays in a row? I don't think I've ever had THAT much bad luck. But then again, I was just playing for fun and not doing the Martingale strategy to its fullest potential.

I'd just like to see what others have to say about this.

[Waiting4RF]

I have lost 18 hands in a row with WIN=0 on every hand. That was in Vegas. East coast record for me is 14 nothings in a row. Good Luck.

[billryan]

Are you really willing to lose $5096 to win a nickel?
If you wish to play the martingale strategy to its full potential, simply don't play it. After all, all it is designed to do is break even. You've already accomplished that without sitting down.

[asteroid]

If you have an infinite bank roll and the max bet is infinitely high then you can win with this strategy. However no one has an infinite bank roll (not even the Sultan of Brunei) and there is a cap on the highest vp bet you can make (even in the high limit room at Casino Royale in Monaco), so in practice this will not work.Hi!
I'm brand new here and I've heard about the Martingale strategy and how it eventually causes you to lose. But I'm not so sure about how that can be. Allow me to use the simplest method to illustrate:

If applying the strategy to regular video poker. The simplest way to use it is to play for a 2 pair, which gives you your money back that you had lost up to that point. A jacks or better win would allow you to just repeat the play you just made. All other wins (3 of a kind, Straight, etc.) are pure profit. To start, here's the pattern:

On a nickel machine, play 1 nickel, then 1 nickel again. You're out 2 nickels. Then play 2. After that you could play 4 (or round it up to 5 to get the most from a royal flush.) Assuming that last play was 5 nickels and you lost, you're out 9 nickels (45 cents). Then on a quarter machine, play 2 quarters, then 4 quarters. Now you're out $1.95, but let's just say it's $2 to keep it simple.

Now to the dollar machines. Play $2, then $4. Now you're out $8. This is assuming 8 losses in a row, not counting jacks or better wins, which just allows you to repeat that play.

See the pattern? Now of course I was talking about nickel, quarter and dollar "machines" in a physical casino. So, what if you go online and do this and are able to find "high stakes" options where you could keep increasing your bets? The pattern would then continue to higher amounts. In this case, you would then bet $8, since that's what you're out after 8 plays and losses. After that, you bet $16, $32, $64, $128, $256, $512, $1024, $2048. Ok, now let's see where we are after spending $5,096.....

We've played 17 hands of video poker and lost 17 hands IN A ROW. Has anyone ever done that? Keep in mind that the odds are that we should hit a 2 pair every 7 plays, plus a jacks or better win every 5 plays. The jacks or better wins basically give us a second chance every 5 plays, for a total of 3 of them throughout this strategy, which means you would have failed to get a 2 pair 20 times in a row.

BTW, what I've outlined is what you could do with $5,096. If you had more like $41,000, then you could add a few plays for an initial 20 plays, with 24 if you count the jacks or better wins. Can anyone honestly say they've flat-out lost 20 plays in a row? I don't think I've ever had THAT much bad luck. But then again, I was just playing for fun and not doing the Martingale strategy to its fullest potential.

I'd just like to see what others have to say about this.

[VPvideo]

Are you really willing to lose $5096 to win a nickel?

That would happen if all I did was hit a 3 of a kind one time on one of the first 2 plays, and then lost on all the others.


If you wish to play the martingale strategy to its full potential, simply don't play it. After all, all it is designed to do is break even. You've already accomplished that without sitting down.

That's assuming all I ever hit were 2 pair wins. You're forgetting that there are higher wins available that make profit. I addressed this in the second paragraph.

[VPvideo]

I have lost 18 hands in a row with WIN=0 on every hand. That was in Vegas. East coast record for me is 14 nothings in a row. Good Luck.

Are you referring to Video Poker, or the regular kind that's played with other people betting against each other?

[billryan]

Whenever I think I have come up with a strategy that all the mathematicians in the world have somehow overlooked, I look at the blank space on the wall where my Degree in Applied Math isn't and remember why its not there.

[Waiting4RF]

18 consecutive hands in video poker of "WIN 0".

[Waiting4RF]

Also the average quad is 1 in 400 hands. I had over 3,200 hands without a quad. That is 8 times the average. So figure 8 times longer than average into your system.

[case]

Where would you EVER find a VP machine that has stakes starting at a nickel and going up to over 5,000 dollars a hand. It does not exist, so your theory is garbage.