Can't lose VP Games?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BobDancer]9/6 JoB has a 0.456% house edge. The game itself will
hold that --- or more, for most folks, because of strategy errors. You
will not beat the game by itself over the long run. Casinos,
however, offer slot clubs and promotions. It is DEFINITELY possible that
these add up to more than 0.46% at some casinos some of the time. Including
slot clubs and promotions, I am ahead more than $2 million on this game
over the past 20+ years. On the game itself, I am behind almost a half
percent (which figures!) --- including more than 400 royal flushes on
this game.[/quote]This statement was taken from a post made today on the Strategy Forum.  You can read the entire post yourself if you wish.  It confirms a lot of what I have been saying for years.  If the best video poker player in the world can't make a long term profit on a 9/6 Jacks game without adding in comps, how do you ever expect to do it on quarter 8/5 or 7/5 Jacks?  Back in my Beau Rivage days I was playing quarter Jacks with a 4% house edge.  This was costing me a minimum of $30 an hour at max coins.  Three days of straight play was running me about $1,000 to $1,500 a trip.  I had no hope of ever making money.  Still, in one incredible 24 hour period I cashed $13,000 in white tickets. Believing math owed me more money, I gave it all back in the next six months.  I eventually realized that the casino wasn't going to go away if I played single coin. Even with giving up the royal bonus, I cut my losses by about 2/3s.  I don't know how you do your math, but a $300 overnight trip to Biloxi is worth it to me... a $1,500 trip is not. Switching the single coin quarters saved me nearly a $1,000 a trip!Unless you play in Vegas with free food, drinks, rooms and cash back, it's going to be the amount of money you run through the machines that matters more than the odds.  If Bob Dancer can't beat the game, you won't either.   If you play bigger you will earn more comps.  You will also most likely lose more on the game itself.  If the comps turn the game positive, Great.  For most recreational players they don't come close.Professionals know the comp game inside and out.  They have the time to attend lucrative raffles that might be held at all hours of the night.  They have the skill and discipline to stick with their plan and never waver.  They also have bankrolls big enough to survive the worst possible droughts. Do you?Eventually you will find what works for you and it may not be someone else's way.  You don't need the strategy of the week, you need a strategy you can live with.  If it's max coins, CS, Martingale or just betting bigger when a certain song plays and you enjoy it, it's OK.  Don't go around mad or think the game is rigged just because your math doesn't come out the same as someone else. My biggest disagreement is that the same VP strategy fits all players.  This will never be true because everyone has different games, skills, bankrolls, and not everyone wants the same thing out of the game.  Whatever you do, have fun and enjoy your visit to the casino.  When that stops happening, it's time to quit.

[Tedlark]

Phil I'm trying to see the correlation between the title of your forum post and what you wrote; can you help me tie the two in as because maybe I'm not seeing the picture you painted clearly?

[FloridaPhil]

Great question Ted.  For a long time I have been under the impression that Mr. Dancer always wins long term.  Now I see he loses on the games and makes it up on the comps.   Perhaps if I had attended one of his classes, I might know that.   This is good to know, but useless to a player that doesn't play enough to earn comps.  I was in this camp when Florida first put in Vegas slots as the comps were points that could only be used for sunglasses and T shirts.  Can't lose Video Poker does not exist.   Even if the game itself is over 100%, most players can't play accurate enough long enough to take advantage of it.  Long term winning video poker only exists if you can earn enough comps to make up for your losses.  In our travels, we see all kinds of comp programs.  Most are horrible or non existent at the quarter level..  The one and only reason I now play max coins is that the Florida Hard Rocks wised up and put in a decent comp program.   If it wasn't for that, I would play as cheap as I possibly could.

[asteroid]

One method to augment comps which seems to work pretty well is to develop a relationship with a casino and then teach vp classes there.
Long term winning video poker only exists if you can earn enough comps to make up for your losses. 

[billryan]

Best way not to lose money is to not play ****ty games.
Bob doesn't play much JOB because better games exist. I just read a passage from one of his books where he and Bonnie won a trip to Atlantis based on play he gave a Vegas casino. There were fifty winners, most of them VP pros. Upon arriving at Atlantis, the group found out the best game was 9-6 JOB. They did a lot of touristy things that weekend. That's the difference between a long term winner and a long term whiner. One only plays when they have an advantage, the other whines about the lack of good games, but plays bad ones anyway.
As usual, phil takes what Mr Dancer said and twists it into something it isn't. As no one in his right mind bothers trying to make sense of phils ramblings, there isn't any need to correct him.
Bottom line- add the games payout, the cashback from the club, the value of mailings and drawings and any comps you can use. If that exceeds 100%, you have a long term winner. If it doesn't, you don't.
Not sure why they is so difficult for some people to comprehend.

[FloridaPhil]

When Bob gives advice he assumes he is talking to players with the means to implement his strategy.  These are not the players I am speaking to here.Suppose you are an average American couple with a couple of hundred dollars a day to gamble.  You like VP and are playing in Biloxi or Cherokee.   You have played on this website or used Dancer's software and you know something about the games.  You check the quarter odds and they are in the 96-97% range.   You want your money to last all day, but you want a chance at a big jackpot.  If you take Bob's advice you won't play at all.   But, you came to play and those are the only games you have.  If you play max coin quarters your money will only last a few hours unless you hit a royal or a few nice hands in a row.  Even if you hit a royal, the bad odds will take it back.  This is the dilemma I was faced with in Biloxi when I came up with CS.CS is not a way to beat the casinos.  It's not for people who can earn great comps.  It's not for a player who only visits a casino once or twice a year.   It's also not for a well funded player who doesn't care if he loses.  CS is for players who want an exciting casino game they can play for an extended period of time on a budget.If you use CS you can play cheap all day and still have a chance at a max coin jackpot.  You can drink the same free drinks the guy next to you is drinking while he plays max coin dollars.  In Biloxi, you can even get a free room at one of the nicest resorts on the Gulf Coast.  I have done this many times and it's a great way to enjoy casino gambling without coming home with empty pockets.  All you have to do is forget about math.  Forget back getting rich and just concentrate on having a good time. I don't expect a player like Bill who lives at South Point with great comps, cash back and near 100% games to understand this.  I also don't  expect Mr. Dancer will say anything nice about me either.  The people I am talking to will get it.

[Carcounter]

Bob's books, software and articles have been helpful to me. I haven't been out to Las Vegas in awhile and my play is confined to AC. As I have posted before, there were base games over 100% in AC prior to the recession. With comps they were very good for knowledgeable recreational players. The dollar full pay All Americans were very good to me and I played a lot more frequently than I do today. Having said that, Borgata has 9/6 Jacks, 9/5 Super Double Bonus and 9/6 Jacks multi-strike. All good 99.5% plus games. I try to go down every time there is a 5x or 10x slot dollar multiplier, but even the base games with cashback and comp dollars are good enough to keep me playing. If those games are pulled, I absolutely will not play anymore.

[FloridaPhil]

The reason I made this post is because CS has been given a bad rap by Bob Dancer and a few of his followers.  CS was never a winning strategy and I never said it was.   The fact that I came out positive over a two year period using it is not relevant.    Two years is not log term and winning wasn't my goal.   It's a way to extend play and retain the possibility of a max coin jackpot, that's it.Some Vegas players believe their positive VP games and comps are available all over the planet.  Bob talks like everyone has enough money to burn that they can play big enough to earn valuable comps.   Neither of these things are true. I'm not beating a dead horse here.  Bob posted CS makes no sense, so I explained why he is wrong.   Bob says to never play negative games.  If everyone in the world followed his advice we wouldn't have quarter VP outside of Vegas.  I say play them, but play them cheap.  Where is the problem with me encouraging people to save money?Enough already.  If you have a good deal like we currently have at the Hollywood Hard Rock, play max coins.  If you don't, play as cheap as possible.  Maybe your casino will get the message and decide to give you a better return? 

[billryan]

Did you ever stop to consider if people didn't play **** games, casinos just might offer better ones?
In the early 1960s, Ed Thorpe wrote a book on beating blackjack. It was a best seller and people flocked to blackjack tables. Casinos responded by changing the rules, making it almost impossible to win. did people keep playing the now horrible games? They did not. Casinos looked at the empty tables and brought back enough of the previous rules that people returned.
Rather than encouraging people to play crap games, maybe you should encourage them to boycott them. Not that anyone will listen to you, but at least you'll be on the right side of the fight, instead of being an unpaid shill for crap games.

[onemoretry]

The fact that I came out positive over a two year period using it is not relevant.   
That is certainly true. I don't know if I ever posted my opinion or not, but my thought was that you were not winning because of CS, but in spite of it.

As I recall, you did not hesitate at all to mention your successes in the considerable harangue that accompanied CS. You may not have said: "You can do it, too", but there was a very strong inference that max coin jackpots were just around the corner.