Negative VP Game Analysis

[FloridaPhil]

Here is a spreadsheet that I have been working on for a while.  This spreadsheet calculates the theoretical loss of many of the today's most popular video poker games.  On any given day your results could vary.  The purpose of this exercise is to produce a theoretical loss benchmark for each game.  This benchmark should allow a player to make decisions on which game to play, how best to play them and to weigh offsetting comps and the bankroll required.I used 500 hands an hour as an average playing speed to calculate this spreadsheet.  Most players play much faster.  The faster you play negative VP games the more you lose.  Keep in mind these are theoretical numbers.  Bob Dancer's own Video Poker for Winners software was used to determine the odds.   These odds assume perfect play and that all jackpots and royals show up on time.  They are also calculated into infinity.   Your actual results could be more or less depending upon random chance.I think you will be surprised by these numbers.  The most popular game in our casinos is 8/5 double double bonus.  Playing this game with max coin quarters is a $20 plus an hour loser with perfect play.   Every 10 hours flushes another $200 down the drain.  Five more 10 hour periods and you have flushed a full royal.  How many free rooms, beers and sandwiches does it take to make up for losses like this?   I have been accused many times on this forum of ignoring math.  If you don't like these answers, you can do the same. 

[billryan]

Using Phil's numbers and plugging in $3 per $1,000 in rebates, we see single coin .25 cent JOB will get $3 back every four hours,so his real EV is minus $5.12 for four hours, or $1.28 an hour.
A max coin player will get back $7.50 in the same time, reducing his four hour -EV to 3.66, or less than .92 cents an hour.
How many free rooms, drinks and burgers does it take to overcome a dollar an hour negative expectation?

[FloridaPhil]

If you can find positive opportunities, play them.  I have no problem with that.  Again, my posts are not about playing good games. They are about playing the majority of VP games in the US which are less than 98%.   We are the players that Bob Dancer says should stay home.Look at my spreadsheet again.  I enjoy playing DDB.  If I lived in Vegas, I would be a max coin quarter 10/6 DDB player.  I don't and the best quarter DDB game in Florida is 8/5.  If I play this game at max coin quarters, I am facing at least $200 a day in losses even before I sit down.   I can play this game all day at single coin quarters for $5.56 an hour.  The cost of playing single coin 50 cent Airport Deuces is only $5.79 an hour.   If they bring me a free glass of wine an hour, I'm even.    When playing this way, four aces with a kicker and a quad deuce is just as much fun.  Taking $100 to the casino turns into $500 in hands.   $200 turns into $1,000.  With all those extra hands, the odds of hitting a jackpot are much better.  If no one else on this forum has a problem playing ever more negative VP games, we can continue to talking about games that don't exist.  With a few adjustments, you can continue to play today's VP games all you want while laughing at odds reductions.  Until they break the coin buttons off, we'll be just fine.

[billryan]

You asked him for advice. He gave it to you. Since you knew what it would be in advance, asked any way and still chose to ignore it, not sure what else can be said.
Now you are making charts, using information you clearly don't fully understand and attempting to justify your single coin strategy, not even a week after you posted you were done with it. Again.

[FloridaPhil]

I understand this spreadsheet all too well.  It shows I'll be just as happy playing single coin.  I'll play a lot more hands and I won't have to stomach big losses and convince myself it's part of the game.   I'll smile as I walk by players pumping thousands into the machines so they can win once in a while.  We will both breath the same air and sit in the same comfortable chairs.  They may get some free sandwiches and beer that I'll never see and I'll be able to buy my own steak from the money I didn't lose. 

[FAA]

Quite familiar with the 9/6 JOB numbers. JOB is merely a wolf in sheep's clothing. That's your cue, Olds! I'd sign up for  -$8 per hour anytime. It's more like -$48 and up from my fieldwork. If wacky enough to max, I'd bust 100% of trips. Some innocuous game. Pass the ice pack.

[FloridaPhil]

One thing we should all be able to agree on, how a player chooses to play VP with his/her own money is a personal decision that depends on a lot of different factors.   The games you have available in your area, your bankroll, your skill level, your tolerance for losing, your casino's comp program and your willingness to take on risk all factor into your decision.  Bob Dancer and Bill Ryan are not gong to fly over to your house and do an analysis for you, you are on your own.  The chart I provided will give you hard data that you can use to make your VP play decisions.  Before you play, scout the casino and know what's available.  Look at my chart and determine how much the casino is going to charge you for the privilege of playing their games.  Consider how much the casino is going to give you back in comps and free play.  Then decide which game you are going to play and how you are going to play it.Keep in mind the hourly loss figure on this chart is a "benchmark" and not the actual cost to play.   This benchmark is only used to compare games and does not represent your true hourly loss.  All video poker math has this in common.  Your actual short term results could be much different.  In the long term these numbers become more accurate.In the case of the most recent odds downgrade at the Hollywood Hard Rock.  Without this chart, we might have thought the new deuces odds weren't that bad.  After looking at the chart, you can see it's one of the worst games available.  I am not attempting to turn everyone into a single coin VP player.  I realize why many won't play that way.  I want you to know the cost of your decisions so you can decide what's best for you, not someone else.At one time video poker was a beatable game.  Many players like me were initially drawn to the game for that reason.  Except for a few rare exceptions in Nevada or at very high denominations, those days are over.  There is a reason Bob Dancer says not to play overall negative games.   If you use Advantage Play VP strategy on a 96% or less VP game, you will lose 3-5 times more money long term than the guy or gal next to you that's playing single coin.  If that works for you, great.  I'll be happy to loan you $20 so you have enough gas to drive home. 

[FAA]

the hourly loss figure is a "benchmark" and not the
actual cost to play. This benchmark is only used to compare games and
does not represent true hourly loss.  All video poker math has this.  Actual short term results could be much different.  Long term these numbers become more accurate.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------We've beaten this caveat to death many times over. If only the benchmark better approximated reality. In the long term, we're all dead. I stopped playing quarters as JOB Progressive is absurdly retentive. Next door's results are similar, with uncomfortable uprights. I've become resigned, or numb, to -$100 for my two hours. I guess I'm fine with a high two digit trip loss to pursue the RF.  The nifty thing about the chart is the $/hour column. It perfectly nailed my coin in rate of $1,500 an hour consistent with my average bet of about $3.  

[FloridaPhil]

Overall negative VP games are long term losers no matter how you play them.  Bob Dancer says not to play them at all.  I say the next best thing is to play them small enough where the losses don't matter.   This spreadsheet is an Excel file that anyone with Microsoft Office can use.  Plug in the numbers from your own casino games.  It won't make your games pay better, but it will help you to determine the best way to play them.  If you want a copy, message me and I will email you a copy at no charge...

[Waiting4RF]

FAA, Do you still vary your total bet between $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 on the dollar machine? If you do, why not just stay at the $1 bet the whole day for a few months to see if your results improve? You can also calculate your return each day for the number of hands you played since 1 Tier Credit is $20 played. At Harrahs AC yesterday, I played 280 hands until I was dealt my first 3 of a kind on a machine. The math says the chance of getting dealt a 3OAK is 1 in 47. Earlier this year at Caesars I played over 120 plays (at 3 hands per play) of Extra Draw Frenzy and was not dealt a 3OAK so I quit that game. 280 hands is a new record for me.