Negative VP Game Analysis

[FAA]

Do you still vary your total bet between $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 on the dollar machine?----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Yes. Schizophrenic, but quite exciting. And JOB requires spice. Surely my luck improves your way, with so much reduced risk. But with the tiny quad payout I'm still lucky to break even. Bottom line will be slightly better, on reduced volume. 134 TC at Caesars yesterday, which is how I computed the coin in of $2,680. I guess 900 hands if I average $3. I take hundreds of shots at that $4,000 if holding my own. Two quads, right on schedule on the same machine. The others were ice cold, thus my loss. I shun Harrah's on Sunday; zero luck on that day there. Sounds like you struck out. If you can say, how much damage?

[FAA]

A lot of VP players are convinced this chart doesn't apply to them. Overall negative VP games are long term losers. Dancer says not to play.  I say the next best
thing is to play them small enough where the losses don't matter.  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Yeah, it's what you maintained back when I was a quarter player. I was all over the wager matrix on that level too. If I went small yesterday, my casino -$78 would have been -$26. Give both wins and losses a 67% haircut. Now that I can shrug off. Plus CS saves the ATM trip and $3 expense. Let's get real, we're losers on most trips. Must we donate an extra $50-$100 or more?! We need the money more than they do.

[FloridaPhil]

As Billy Ryan famously said "Beware the dollar succubus!"    His best forum comment by far.    

[FAA]

The succubus victim at least received sex for his troubles.
The RF dream was great entertainment. But a PowerBall ticket achieves the same result for 2% of my cost. Heck, buy five.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]But a PowerBall ticket achieves the same result for 2% of my cost. Heck, buy five.
[/quote]I'd rather play the stock market.  The way things have been going in the market this year I should be "Dancing" in the high limit room.   

[FloridaPhil]

We will be staying at the Hollywood Hard Rock over Christmas and I want to be sure of my strategy before we go.   As you can see on my chart, the benchmark for the new quarter deuces wild game at max coins is a $20+ and hour loser.   The single coin 50 cent Airport Deuces benchmark is $5.79 an hour.  This game is available at the Tampa Hard Rock.  At Hollywood, Airport Deuces starts at a dollar. The dollar benchmark for this game is $11.57 an hour, or about half the benchmark for the bad max coin quarter game.  The chart numbers are benchmarks.  The actual long term losses are much higher. This situation is getting more common in casinos across the country.  A few points need to be clarified.If you are only going to the casino a few times a year and you are
only going to play for a few hours, play all VP games with max coins. 
In the short term, anything can happen.  If you are like me and play VP
regularly and for long periods, using this chart will save big money.   By playing single coin, you won't dig a big hole in your wallet and
be temped to hit the high limit room to recover your losses.  You will
have a nice enjoyable day and walk out with a smile instead of being
angry with yourself.If you determine single coin play is a better game for you, do not play max coins and switch to single coin when you are out of money!  The only reason for playing single coin is to limit your losses when playing overall negative games.   After the casino has your money, it's too late.   If you hit a short coin royal losing $5 an hour, no big deal.  If you have already lost $500 and you hit one, it defeats the whole purpose.It takes discipline to stick to single coin play.   Playing single coin hurts your comps.  When I pay single coin, I pull my card.  I put it back in when I play slots or max coins.  To the casino, this makes me look like a typical slot player.  Playing single coin VP is the cheapest game in the entire casino.  The casino does not want you to tie up an expensive machine for a few bucks an hour.  They want you to play bad games with max coins and lose bigger.Do not play single coin if you can play decent VP games and earn good comps. Single coin play is a tool you can use when you encounter bad games.  Personally, I think a bad game is anything less than 98.9% deuces wild.  When the Hollywood Hard Rock had this game in quarters, we played this game with max coins and enjoyed the comps.  With those games now gone, I am a single coin player.  The chart tells the story.Mr. Dancer, the world's foremost authority on video poker, says to never play any VP game unless you have an advantage.  As a player, a businessman and a casino consultant he walks a fine line.  On one hand, he is absolutely 100% right.  On the other hand, his casino manager clients are betting you will not walk away.  They want you to ignore the odds and play crappy games with max coins so you can lose even more money.  Do you have positive VP opportunities available to you at a denomination that you can play comfortably?  Can you play 100% computer perfect for weeks, months possibly years on end?  Do you have a bankroll big enough to last through grueling downturns?  Do you have the guts to risk big money on the belief your advantage will eventually earn you a profit?  For most of us the answer to these questions is NO.  Then why are you using an advantage play strategy on bad games that math shows doubles your losses?Video poker odds are being downgraded across the country, edging closer and closer to slot returns.  The casinos want this to happen.  A VP machine takes up just as much floor space as a slot, why shouldn't it return the same profit to the casino?  You don't have to be a rocket scientist or a mathematician to understand this.  If you can play positive games perfectly, play as big as you want.  If you are happy with what it's currently costing you to play max coins, do it.  If you are tired of giving your hard earned money to the casino so you can buy a thrill possibly one out of 10 trips, use the chart and decide for yourself.

[FAA]

The RF thrill is an expensive dream. I must either pursue it at the quarter level or CS dollar dabble. It's a sad conclusion to draw. I seem to wager with wild abandon despite my knowledge. It's addictive. I keep telling myself that I'll stop once I hit the dollar RF on my bucket list. And I will, since it's such a lofty goal. The weekly struggle grinds on.

[olds442jetaway]

FAA....in the long run, you will hit quad deuces 8 times for every job royal. Yet the job royal when hit, pays 800 for one and in the same long term time frame, the quad deuces will pay 1600. That's why I like to chase the quad deuces instead of the Royal. If you have the time, practice on this site for fun playing airport deuces. Bet only the amount you need to be even once the quad deuces hit. I think you will be amazed at the long term outcome. Now if only I could stick to that method. i think I would be just about even for the year instead of another substantial losing one. Just as an aside, when the royal does come in deuces wild every 50k hands or so while you are chasing the deuces, it will be gravy. Nice and hot with no lumps of coal in it either.

[onemoretry]

Here is a spreadsheet that I have been working on for a while.  This spreadsheet calculates the theoretical loss of many of the today's most popular video poker games.
That was a worthwhile effort, and you are to be thanked for doing it. Unfortunately, the people who need this information the most are unlikely to see it here, but that is their loss.

I do have one question. You have described one deuces wild game as "Fooler Deuces", and another as "Hollywood Deuces". The game returns are slightly different, yet the payables seem to be the same?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=onemoretry]I do have one question. You have described one deuces wild game as
"Fooler Deuces", and another as "Hollywood Deuces". The game returns
are slightly different, yet the payables seem to be the same?
[/quote]Thanks for pointing out the error.  I'm surprised there weren't more.  I corrected the chart pay schedule for Hollywood Deuces.   The loss benchmark numbers were correct.   This is the worst game of all at 96.765% with max coins.  At first glance this game looks good as the wild royal pays 125 coins and they bump the five-of-a kind to 80 and the straight flush to 65 coins.   Then they kill you on the most common hands.  At max coin quarters this game's benchmark is a $20 plus per hour loser.I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but this is the kind of information our VP experts should be providing.  What good is an expert if his advice only benefits a few players?  If all you ever say about negative VP games is don't play them, you aren't helping 99% of the players in America.   Staying home is not an option for these players because they go to the casino for entertainment.   They play terribly negative VP games using positive game strategy and get slaughtered week after week.This chart provides you with a benchmark you can use to compare the most common video poker games so you can make informed decisions on what game you are going to play and how you are going to play it.   The rest is up to you.