Negative VP Game Analysis

[asteroid]

We're missing the comps (freeplay etc.) the expert(s) receive from the casinos for convincing people to max bet.QUOTE=DAAnMAAn]Let’s see...96% return video poker game, single line quarters, 800 hands an hour...
Max bet=$1.25 a spin
$1,000 coin thru an hour
4% house edge=theoretical loss of $40.00

Min bet=.25c a spin
$200 coin thru an hour
4% house edge=theoretical loss of $8 dollars an hour.

Experts keep saying I lose less max betting. Strange math.
Even with a 1% comp edge on max betting and taking away 1% for lack of Royal bonus in min bet, we are still looking with same hand total and bets per hour a loss of $30 for max bet (97% ER) and $10 dollars for
Min bet (95% ER)...What are we missing here?

[/QUOTE]

[FAA]

Olds, are you okay? DW strategy pretty much down on limited practice sessions. But your casino results are cold comfort. How are you having a substantial losing year with that great deuces frequency on paper? I got back to my roots with quarter JOB for a solid hour. All that did was slow the bleeding. I lost a mere buck per minute. Must blend 40% quarter play to manage losses. Misery loves company thread.

[onemoretry]

We're missing the comps (freeplay etc.) the expert(s) receive from the casinos
Most players, not just the "experts" receive those benefits.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=DAAnMAAn]What are we missing here?[/quote]Many recreational players don't bother with comps or are playing at casinos where the comps are worthless.  These days the odds may be so bad the comps are not worth the extra cost to play max coins.   The most valuable comps to us are free rooms.  They allow us to take nice vacations at beautiful resorts and stay for free.  Right now there are stacks of offers on my desk.  Most of these offers are from casinos with terrible VP and/or state taxes that make it nearly impossible to break even unless we hit 2 royals on each trip.  If you can get a free room by playing max coin quarters for two hours a day, this can be a good deal.  We don't play that way.  We both play a minimum of 6 hours a day each.  My wife plays quarters and I average much higher denominations.  If you do this in Biloxi for example, a free room could easily cost you $1,000 a day.  When you play VP in Mississippi, you are fighting a 3% State gambling tax on top of the 5% casino's cut. There aren't enough free rooms in Mississippi to make up for the all the partners you have in their games.Until recently, the Hollywood casino had 6 machines with a 1% house edge quarter DW game.  The resort is outstanding.  Unlike Vegas, the rooms are truly "free" with no added fees or taxes.  Florida has no state income or gambling taxes.  The comps include points and free play, so we never had to pay to eat or drink.  This was a good deal as long as they had those 6 machines on the floor, so we played them 3 days a month.  Since they dropped the odds to 96%, It's cheaper to play single coin quarters and pay for the room yourself.  Playing max coin VP only works if your numbers do.Experts talk about VP as if it were being played in a bottle.   This is not the case.  It's being played by human beings on planet Earth, not some Avatar world where everything happens with computer precision.  Playing VP games with good odds well is better because it allows you to play more hands with the same money.  This gives you more chances of hitting a jackpot and earn more comps, but it never guarantees you will be a long term winner.There are many useful things to be learned from VP experts as long as you adjust what they say to your particular circumstances.  The same strategies that apply to a Vegas AP betting millions of dollars a year with a 1% advantage plus cash back and generous comps, may not be the best strategy for a recreational player playing 96% quarter games in Cherokee NC. 

[FloridaPhil]

Looking at the chart again today, I noticed an interesting max coin opportunity.   Fooler Deuces (max coin 97.58% 200/20/12/10/4/4/3/2/1) is the default quarter deuces wild game at the Tampa Hard Rock Casino.   The hourly loss benchmark for this game at max coins is $15.13 an hour.  At the Tampa facility Airport Deuces (max coin 98.91% 200/25/15/9/4/4/321) is available starting at 50 cents.  The max coin hourly loss benchmark for this game is $13.59.  The chart shows the benchmark for the 50 cent deuces wild game is $1.54 an hour better than the max coin quarter game at this casino.  I'm sure playing all day at the 50 cent level requires a bigger daily bankroll, but your comps double as well.   Another advantage for me at least, I would be less tempted to move up in denomination.   It's something to think about....     If they remove the quarter Airport Deuces game from the Hollywood casino, we will have to move up to dollars to play this game.  Playing max coin dollars jumps the loss benchmark up to $27.18 an hour.   Single coin dollar play costs less than half at $11.57.  You would need a bankroll of $1,000 a day to play the max coin dollar game.  As far as I am concerned, that's too much risk for the "maybe" shot of hitting a max coin royal once every 45,000 hands.When you consider VP as entertainment, you don't think of the game in terms of profit or loss.  You think of it as "X" amount of entertainment for "X" cost.  Winning is always great, but it is not our overall reason for playing the game.   We consider a day at the casino to be similar to a day at Disney World, only they give us a chance to win our money back.  There is no need for us to pay 10, 20 or a hundred times the price for a ticket so we can have an undeniably minute chance of a long term profit.

[FAA]

Yeah, I agree and surrender. White flag out and frantically waving. Quarter JOB it is. No matter how fast you are, you're losing one fifth the money factoring out the RF. I'd rather cap the day at -$50 than -$250. Still crazed and dazed. I tried to cash in and got my head bashed in.

[FloridaPhil]

Playing with VP numbers is like having two hobbies.  One is the game itself and the other is a consuming mathematical exercise.  I see the fun in calculating odds, comps, cash back, ER, Ad Infinitum. Some members enjoy the calculations more than playing the game.  It does seem to me if the numbers meant anything players would do better than we do.  Anyway, this chart is interesting.   I'm not sure it makes a difference what game you play for how you play it as long as you enjoy what you are doing. 

[FAA]

My issue is that the value proposition has vanished. A two hour film may cost under $10. A two hour casino visit costs ten times that. I do get the jealousy bonus of witnessing hand pays aplenty.

[Vman96]

Fyi, there is an established name for the 25/16/13/4/3/2 paytable (96.77%) that Hollywood Hard Rock lowered their 25c/50c games to. It's called "Colorado Deuces" and is probably the most popular quarter VP paytable in the US.