Stack The Deck Insight & Strategy for DDB Players

[alpax]

Stack The Deck Poker is one of the newest games to be showcased by IGT / VideoPoker.com during the Global Gaming Exposition 2017. It made its debut recently on the website for GOLD members and is the Game of the Month for December 2017 for double club points. Finally there is a new and an exciting concept, has been months since an intriguing gimmick game has appeared.

Although Haywire Poker was a game showcased during the 2017 G2E and was the first to make its debut on this site, I immediately noticed it was very similar to Moving Multipliers in which I did an analysis. I figured it was not worth the time as one has changing multipliers and the other had constant mulipliers. Stack the Deck Poker is intriguing, the term “Stacking the Deck” usually represents a form of cheating in draw poker, but not in this case. This specialty game variant is geared towards made hands on the deal like Triple Wheel Poker and Powerhouse Poker. When it happens, that is where the excitement comes in.



Top Video Poker expert in the industry Mr. Dancer had rave things to say about this one:
[QUOTE] The best, in my opinion, was called STACK THE DECK. If you’re dealt three-of-a-kind, full house, four-of-a-kind, or four to the royal flush, the game will place three, four, or five extra cards in the deck that will help you. Let’s say you’re dealt AAA44. The casino will deal you extra aces. Depending on the pay schedule, sometimes they deal you five extra aces. So instead of drawing to the aces and having a 1-out-of-47 chance to draw the fourth ace, you now have 6-out-of-52 chances. In some games, it will still be the better play to keep the dealt full house. In other games, it’ll be right to just hold the aces. Figuring it out on the fly is a bit difficult, but there are only so many types of hands where this decision arises, and it’s not hard to figure out the best strategy in all cases.
While this game does require some new strategic decisions, there are not that many to learn — and the ones you have to learn are for the “exciting” hands. I’m guessing this game will become very popular.
[/QUOTE]

The last sentence says a lot opinion wise. Flip and Pay Poker was Mr. Dancer’s top choice last year, but ended up being Magic Draw Poker being the most popular out of the bunch. Hope that Mr. Dancer is right this time around.

Source: What I Liked about G2E 2017 by Bob Dancer, CDC Gaming Reports

Bonus Trigger Frequency

Stack the Deck Poker’s bonus effect happens when the player is dealt: 3 of a Kind, Full House, 4 of a Kind, or 4 to the Royal Flush.

Breaking down the odds of each occurrence in a 52 card deck of 2598960 hand possibilities.

Four to Royal Flush – 940 outcomes – 1 in 2764.851
Four of a Kind (Includes all forms of kicker quads) – 624 outcomes – 1 in 4165
Full House – 3744 outcomes – 1 in 694.17
Three of a Kind – 54912 outcomes – 1 in 47.36

Cumulative Bonus Outcomes: 60220 – 1 in 43.1775

This will mean at the pace of 500 hands per hour (in multiline games it is considerably fast), the player will see the bonus effect little more than every 5 minutes of play.

During a 100 hand VideoPoker.com tournament, there will be an average expectation of 2 bonus plays per session.

When the Bonus happens, the HELP pages state that 5 additional cards to help you form the big hands will be added to the deck. Although the number of cards added to the deck may vary by game, in DDB it is 5 cards for each.

Help Page 1


Help Page 2


Introduction of the Baby Royal And Other Outcomes

I am glad that Mr. Dancer did not spoil the part where a new pay table outcome is introduced, the Baby Royal. It is essentially 9 thru King Straight Flush, one rank below the Royal Flush. If you get one at MAX bet on this game, it pays 2000 Credits.



Since there are multiple copies of a card that gets “stacked” into the deck, there are possibilities of 5 of a Kind in this game without a Wild Deuce or a Joker. 5 Aces pays 4000 Credits (as much as a Royal Flush), 5 2s/3s/4s pays 1600 Credits (twice as much as the kicker quad and four times as much as the quad), and 5 5s thru Kings pays 500 Credits (twice as much as the quad variant).

As of December 1 2017 – Only a single pay schedules is available for each game mode

There is only one pay table to play with now, and it will be the table to be analyzed.

When 5 coins per line are played, the player gets the 9/5 DDB pay schedule along with the Baby Royal payout possibilities.



The Bonus requires 7 coins per line to be activated. The paytable gets changed as well to a non-standard one.



Full House – 50
Flush – 35
Straight – 25

Strategy Approach on Non-Bonus Hands

It would essentially be playing a custom 10/7/5 DDB pay schedule most of the time. Most DDB players are not accustomed to playing situations where the Flush pays out 7 for 1, which makes the standard strategy vastly different than the normal 5 for 1 or 6 for 1 payouts. The latest G2E games are now making this a trend (Super Triple Play Jackpots, Super Peek and Play), players who like playing IGT/VideoPoker.com gimmick video poker games should start looking into making an effort to learn 7 for 1 Flush strategy such as holding 3 to a Flush over discarding the entire hand.

I would personally recommend studying Full Pay 10/7 Double Bonus strategy if you intend on playing this game for serious purposes, as the Full House / Flush / Straight payouts match up. The best resource in my opinion to learn this is the Winner’s Guide Volume 2 2nd Edition – Double Bonus Poker by Dancer and Daily.

http://bobdancer.com/shop/winners-guide ... onus-poker

Unfortunately, you cannot use the website’s software Video Poker for Winners to train for this game because you cannot define the Baby Flush rule as well as the natural 5 of a Kind.

For the players who really want to play this game optimally, you will need to put in a considerable amount of effort. There is one alternative suggestion who must play optimally.

Create a custom paytable that pays 50/35/25 for Full House/Flush/Straight. Master playing this with very high accuracy, it will take quite a bit of time.

Afterwards, this report in PDF format (too large to display) will display all the strategy differences caused by the Baby Royal.

Dropbox File Link to Stack the Deck 10/7/5 DDB Baby Royal Strategy Adjustments


Strategy Approach on Bonus Hands



For Dealt Three of a Kinds, there is NO change in strategy; not even a kicker card for Aces, 2s, 3s, and 4s despite getting 5 additional cards.

For Dealt Full Houses, there is a change in strategy. ALWAYS drop the full house by holding the three of a kind and go for the 4 or 5 of a Kind. The lowest EV of the deal three of a kind is 71.14 Credits, well more than the 50 Credits awarded for a Full House.

For Dealt Four of a Kinds, when a kicker quad (4 Aces with Any 2, 3, 4 -OR- 4 2s, 3s, 4s with Ace, 2, 3, 4) is dealt, keep it every time. When a quad is dealt, hold only the quad and drop the last card to go for a quint, some people may have a habit of holding all the cards when they are dealt a 5 thru King quad.

For Dealt 4 to the Royal, technically a Dealt Baby Royal is also 4 to the Royal. I am unsure if 5 Ace cards will be added to the deck, but the correct strategy will be to keep the Baby Royal. All other plays, hold the 4 to the Royal and hope for that last card to complete the Royal (6 in 52 chance for 11.538%).

The Odds of Converting on a Bonus

Converting a Four of a Kind to a Five of a Kind and 4 to a Royal to a Royal Flush have the same 6 in 52 odds which will be 11.54% chance.

Three of a Kind 5s thru Kings – There are 1326 Draw Possibilities to pick 2 out of the remaining stacked 52 card deck – 15 5 of a Kinds (1.131% Chance), 276 4 of a Kinds (20.814% Chance), 66 Full Houses (4.977% Chance), 969 Non-Upgraded 3 of a Kinds (73.077% Chance)

Three of a Kind Aces thru 4s and Full Houses may vary with the cards discarded.

The Overall Optimal Play Return and the Big Variance Swings

With every 5 card deal accounted for and played optimally, the return of the only available pay schedule for Stack the Deck Poker Double Double Bonus will be at 98.28%



The Total Variance breakdown is at 61.56 which is much higher than the low 40s variance of standard Double Double Bonus despite the 7 credit wagering. This should signify the player that swings may be larger than what they want.
Observing the breakdown of the Non-Bonus deals and the Bonus deals show an interesting finding.

Bonus deals



Non-Bonus deals



The Non-Bonus deals account for 61.102% of the 98.28% of the game’s return. However, the Bonus deals account for the rest of the 37.178% of the game’s return. When the Bonus deals are just 60220 combinations, that would mean 2.317% of the game that makes up more than a third of the game’s return; it would be the biggest reason the game will be a feast or famine experience. The player must hope the Bonus situations come in due time or else his/her bankroll will really be in for some serious hurt.

Looking at the game from a positive note, Royal Flushes will be less than half the cycle of a traditional video poker game, along with the premium kicker quads. Hitting 5 of a Kinds in this game may not happen on an average session or the 10-hour play during a vacation trip. Players willing to play this game may have to absorb big losses often to see the jackpot sessions to occur.

Utilizing Jazbo Burns’s N-Play Variance Theories to figure out the Variance on N-Play

With the CoVariance = 10.0876675

3-Play – 81.375 Total Variance – 27.245 Per Line Variance
5-Play – 101.91 Total Variance – 20.382 Per Line Variance
10-Play – 152.348 Total Variance – 15.2348 Per Line Variance

Playing 5 Coins Per Line is a Viable Option

As mentioned earlier, when playing 5 coins per line, it will be a standard 9/5 DDB game except with the additional Baby Royal payout. Theoretically adding another high payout outcome to a base game would only improve the overall payout such as ACE$ Bonus Poker where 4000 credits are paid out when quad aces are in a sequence to spell out ACE$ in order.

9/5 DDB with Baby Royal Payout



The 5 coin game has greater expected return than the theme game, although the increase fun factor will not be there. There are strategy differences to make with the Baby Royal being in place. This report will be withheld until if this game is confirmed to be on the casino floors, not worth discussing a strategy that may not be useful.

Differences that an already proficient 9/5 DDB players should make to adjust to the Baby Royal payout.

1.     Jack/Ten Suited is held over
   a.     Lone Ace
   b.     King/Jack Unsuited without 4 to Inside Straight
   c.     Queen/Jack Unsuited without 4 to Inside Straight
   d.     3 to Straight Flush with 1 gap including Ace-low
2.     Queen and Ten Suited is held over
   a.     Lone Ace
   b.     King/Queen Unsuited without 4 to Inside Straight
   c.     3 to Straight Flush [6/7/9 and 6/8/9]
3.     King/Queen Suited and King/Jack Suited is held over
   a.     4 to Inside Straight with 3 High Cards
   b.     3 to Straight Flush with No Gaps (only up to 8 high for King/Jack but includes 7/8/9, 8/9/10, 8/9/Jack for King/Queen)
4.     King/Ten Suited is held over King alone even when a flush penalty exists
5.     Queen/Jack Suited is held over 3 to Straight Flush Queen/Jack/8 if 9 or 10 Straight penalty exists and no Ace or King straight penalty card exists
6.     4 to Baby Royal is held over dealt 5 Card Straight and 5 Card Flush
7.     3 to Baby Royal is held over
   a.     Low Pair
   b.     4 to Inside or Outside Straight
8.     3 to Baby Royal and Royal Flush Ten/Jack/Queen or Jack/Queen/King is held over
   a.     Jack/Queen/King Pair
   b.     Two Pairs
9.     3 cards fitting to Baby Royal and Royal Flush (Ten thru Kings) is held over
   a.     Jack/Queen/King Pair


Another report in PDF format (too large to display) will display all the rest of strategy differences caused by the Baby Royal in 9/5 DDB if needed.

Dropbox File Link to Stack the Deck 9/5 DDB Baby Royal Strategy Adjustments

Insight on VideoPoker.com Daily/Weekly Tournament Play

Learning from the past year, not every 2016 G2E new games made it to the casino floors in a timely manner. I am certain that Stack the Deck will at least have tournaments based on it. Instead of focusing on Risk of Ruin odds, it would be preferred to analyze how it would play like in tournaments.

I am throwing an estimate that 300,000 100-hand sessions will be played throughout the week. Members are allowed to play more than once, and some members play more sessions than others. More than enough hands will be played for a small group to receive a dealt Royal Flush.

A wild assumption of these results that every hand on every session was played optimally, this is wishful thinking because as DDB players may not care about playing every hand perfectly as long as jackpot hands are in order.

Top 10 Leaderboard Simulated Results of Optimal DDB Play, if everyone played DDB and these places earn prizes from the website.

1st Place $150: 53590
2nd Place $100: 51020
3rd Place $75: 50815
4th Place $50: 50255
5th Place $25: 50015
6th Place 1 month of GOLD: 49920
7th Place 1 month of GOLD: 49635
8th Place 1 month of GOLD: 49545
9th Place 1 month of GOLD: 48605
10th Place 1 month of GOLD: 48585

6th to 10th Place finishers receive 1 month of GOLD membership valued at $8.95

Most winners opt for Triple Double Bonus which is not covered.

Apple iPad Air Drawings

In order to receive a drawing entry for the Apple iPad Air tablet, one must have a session returning at least 80%. Since 10-Play Stack the Deck takes 70 credits to play, the Player must score at least 5600 to receive an entry.

The odds of receiving drawing entry: 63.228%

Odds of receiving you would have won $ if you played with real money at the casino message (over 100% session): 36.694%

Concluding Thoughts

The game without a doubt is interesting and unique. I personally like the concept but I do not know if this game will be well received by the player community. I overheard Mr. Dancer’s GWAE podcast about the G2E 2017 and heard that the people at VideoPoker.com love/prefer games with big swings, this game will certainly fit their liking. I also learned that Mr. Fields (Vice President of VideoPoker.com) is a DDB Player based on the YouTube video on Magic Deal Poker.
I am not speaking for Mr. Dancer or the strong-minded players, but it would seem like the serious and strong-minded players would give this game a pass because the return may not be high enough for consideration, again I may be wrong as it is my opinion. I would think for prospective players who give this game a try. If they land on Bonus opportunities often at the beginning, they’ll be drawn into this game. For people that do not get the Bonus opportunities, they will see their bankroll drop like a stone and may not be persuaded to give it another chance. Thought that would be the case with Magic Deal Poker, but it lasted.

Either way, whatever you do I wish you much luck with this game!

[Tedlark]

Nice work alpax. I haven't given this game enough play yet to make a determination one way or the other as to how I stack it up to DreamCard or Magic Deal. When I have had occasion to be gifted with stack the deck cards I have not connected and I dislike not connecting when given the bonus cards. This in itself may be enough to keep those away who prefer DreamCard or Magic Deal. I doubt too that the game will draw those who favor Ultimate X or STP.

I will play it some more here and see what happens before I make a decision.

[alpax]

Thanks Ted! I think if you enjoy this game, chances are it will be a good one.

I saw that you got this, very nice hit!



In the description on the side, the webmaster describes the chances of 3 Aces to 4 Aces goes up by 30%. With 5 extra cards it is way more than 30% increased chances.

Standard, 46 in 1081 or 1 in 23.5 = 4.255%
Stack the Deck, is about 20.814% chance to get Quad Aces (including the Kicker one). More like 400% increased chances.

[Tedlark]

Thanks alpax, that hit was the only big conversion I hit while playing and from there my point total drained faster than Charlie Hough's confidence while pitching to Reggie Jackson in game 6 of the 1977 World Series.

Of note, I made a MAJOR gaff while playing: I was dealt trip 4's and the bonus round kicked in and I forgot to hold the dealt trip 4's and hit deal. Unlike Extra Draw Frenzy this game DOES NOT auto hold hands which trigger the bonus and most likely I will not be the only player who commits that error.

I'll play it some more and see what kind of feel I can get for it.

[Vman96]

Another great analysis alpax! Glad youre still around! Read my TR if you haven't already!

[pokerpokerpoker]

Nice to see you around, Alpax.

[BobDancer]

I haven't had a chance to study your analysis yet, but I'd like to extend a heart-felt  'welcome back' for your presence on both this forum and the GWAE forum.

[alpax]

Been out of work for 3 1/2 months. Was not a good Fall season so I had to take my mind off of casino gaming related hobbies to help the mindset. I found something for now and I will be ok. I am not oblivious to the tragedy of Route 91 that happened and the press that Video Poker got.

Was going to go back on a few things I was working on, thought so highly of Stack the Deck to get back into things sooner.

I'll definitely check out the trip report, but a lot of the rest is still the same repetitive discussion.

   Thanks alpax, that hit was the only big conversion I hit while playing and from there my point total drained faster than Charlie Hough's confidence while pitching to Reggie Jackson in game 6 of the 1977 World Series.

Of note, I made a MAJOR gaff while playing: I was dealt trip 4's and the bonus round kicked in and I forgot to hold the dealt trip 4's and hit deal. Unlike Extra Draw Frenzy this game DOES NOT auto hold hands which trigger the bonus and most likely I will not be the only player who commits that error.

I'll play it some more and see what kind of feel I can get for it.

Does not sound good. Hopefully you will give it a chance. I also did notice you played Deuces Wild.

When the full bonus is played, it becomes 36/14/12 DW44 which I do not know anyone is used to playing. The Bonus triggers with 2 Deuces dealt, which is about 1 in 25 on average, with 4% bonus opportunities being the minimum, I think it might be more interesting to play the DW mode.

[alpax]

To make this report feel complete, I've included two links to PDF files hosted on Dropbox that will have all the strategy differences caused by the Baby Royal payout.

It will take so much considerable effort to play at optimal return, but I felt I have to give players the opportunity to play the best possible in case this game becomes popular.

[DaBurglar]

The five coin game interests me somewhat with the "new" major hit being available, and since it will be a meaningful initial challenge to master the new strategy to play this game mathematically correct. But it's still fairly intuitive and if you can do math in your head and have a good memory you should get it fairly easily. I say this in part because for a long time I used to ponder playing games like db and ddb with a higher straight flush payout because I always felt a straight flush was underpaid .... Baby royals at two k are a different animal obviously but still, it might be nice to add a new dimension to a stale game.

I'm not at all interested in the seven coin game with a variance that prolific...way too much of a downside for me as I prefer diminishing the luck factor whenever possible and clearly, if you are not fortunate enough to get bonus hands early on the session and your money are gone too fast. Factor in that earning points, player's club perks etc are partly dependent on being able to play for extended periods and you could really crap the bed here...