Can You Beat a Negative Video Poker Game?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=stevel96a1]I have read Florida Phil's reports and i am fascinated about his statement about you can overcome a negative game by varying your bet[/quote][quote=onemoretry]He may have said that at one time, but I do not think he believes that now.[/quote]Playing today's video poker is a balancing act between the money it costs to play the game, the free stuff the casino gives you to play (comps) and the enjoyment/entertainment you obtain from it. Video poker is a game of chance.   There is solid math that can provide you with the odds of something happening in VP.  There is always room in that math for every possible result. The real question is "How long are you going to play?" or in other words "What is short term vs. long term play?"   For two years I played VP and consistently beat negative odds.  I did it by playing single coin quarter VP 90% of the time and making bigger bets 10% of the time.  I was lucky enough to fall on the positive side of the math.  I called how I played "Cheap Strategy" or CS.   Not the best name because how I played was not a strategy, it was a betting scheme.  Never the less, it did yield a positive financial result over that period of time.Here's a quick quiz.  Two skilled players are playing side by side.  The first player
is playing single coin quarters.  The second player is playing max coin
dollars.  Both are playing the same 96.77% deuces wild game and both play
the same number of hands.   Not counting comps which player will leave more money at the
casino over a year's time?If you try to duplicate my results you will learn a few things.  First, playing single coin quarter VP is tedious.  It's no fun hitting $62.50 royal flushes.  Secondly, if you play the way I did you will not be getting any free stuff from the casino.  Casinos loves losers.  Let me rephrase that, they love big losers.  When you play single coin quarters, your mail box will not be filled with mailers.   If playing CS was as big of a loser as some people on this forum believe, you would think the casinos would want you back.  Not so.  They want lousy max coin players and the bigger they bet the better.  Thirdly, my objective in CS was never to make money playing VP.  It was
to play as many hands as possible while cutting my losses to a minimum. 
The fact that I made a little money was inconsequential.I love getting free stuff from casinos even if it's not entirely "free".  I also love hitting max coin royals.  I eventually gave up CS not because it didn't work.  I gave it up because it wasn't fun and fun is what I want from my VP.  This is the Recreational Play Forum.  This is the place to talk about alternative VP strategies.  If you have questions about CS or anything I have said on this forum, I will be happy to answer them without calling you an idiot or saying any of the other childish things that are said on other forums.  Video poker has changed over the years.  Today's VP is nothing like it was back in the year 2000.   The balancing act is a lot harder these days and players must reevaluate their reasons for playing the game and decide what's best for them not someone else.  If you are looking for a  magic scheme that will make you rich playing VP, look somewhere else. 

[wildman49]

We all know the answer is NO. If you flat bet (max) you can apply math and get a number like 99.54% for 9/6 Jacks.Or 99.73% for NSUD yes math works in these casesWhere math don't work is when you change your bet  there is no way to track it. That is where the math players don't get Phil's betting scheme.I used it for 15 months, while I did not win big with it over that time frame, I did play even on it. Really its like a pot shot scheme. I have played max bet (flat betting) the last 3 years and lost all 3 to the total of $8,500.It only takes a few good pots on max and you play on that money along time. It does suck to hit a single coin royal, but play even or lose $8,500 hmmmm.I need to look at this again.http://forum.videopoker.com/forum/forum ... p?TID=6709

[FAA]

I used it for 15 months. I did play even on it. Really its like a pot shot scheme. I
have played max bet (flat betting) the last 3 years and lost all 3 to
the total of $8,500. It only takes a few good pots on max
and you play on that money a long time. Play even or lose $8,500.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Thanks for your honesty. I'd take a year of even play. You break even, you're a winner on negative games. So used to those $11 full houses that $2 won't cut it. Maybe I can put up with CS for an hour if I do not hit the quad. I'd really have to impose tremendous discipline. To think your wife played $1 DW for six hours! That's a fantasy. It's a win if she had merely broken even. She happened to be a big winner. 

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]CS is at heart a loss containment tactic. Have
more fun for more time and hands with less cash. Take occasional pot
shots. Let the comps fall where they may. Leave a happy customer.
[/quote]CS can have value to players who frequently play VP in casinos with seriously negative odds.  If you can play anywhere near positive games accurately, you don't need it.  If you are only going to a casino a few times a year, it's not worth it.  If the thrill of hitting a max coin royal is worth whatever it costs, play max coins all the time.  If the value of the comps you earn by playing this game make the game playable in your eyes, forget about CS and do what you need to do.When playing CS, you trade the value of a max coin royal for the random value of hitting a jackpot at a bigger bet.  The question has always been the timing of when to make the bigger bet.  CS works best with wild card games.   You need a game where the bell rings often.  You also need a large jackpot that occurs more often than once every 40,000 hands.  Wild card games like deuces wild are notorious for running in streaks.  I'm not sure why, but anyone can observe this by playing the game for a few hours.  I have tried CS with all the popular VP games and it works by far the best with traditional deuces wild.I find playing CS more exciting than any other way to play single line VP.   Much of the thrill of VP is in the anticipation of a jackpot.  Every time you hit the max coin button playing CS, you get that rush.   A 4 coin win happens in deuces wild about every 10 hands.  This means you will be playing single coin 90% of the time.  When playing single coin, every win is a win.  After all, a $62.50 royal out of the blue is worth $62.50 isn't it?   If you get lucky and hit a $1,000 royal flush or even a $250 quad deuce, you have a windfall that you can stash away instead of feeding back into the machine.  CS lets you play much longer with your money while retaining the possibility of a max coin jackpot.   You may need to suffer through short coin jackpots before you hit one at max coins.   CS changes a high cost game to a low cost game with a higher variance.  You need serious discipline when using CS.   The temptation to switch back to max coins and give back all your money is formidable. Twenty years ago, choosing a VP strategy was easy.  You cherry picked the games, played as mathematically perfect as possible, added in your comps and were confident you would come out OK.  Today, most players are faced with 97% or worse VP games and they have the losses to show for it.   If your are constantly losing money playing VP, doing what you are doing now is not going to change anything.  Actually things could get worse as casino managers all over the country are sitting in their offices right now contemplating reducing the odds even further.I am not trying to convince anyone to play VP using any strategy.  They all have value to someone somewhere.  What I am saying is to make your decision on how you spend your money based on what is best for you.  Math is always right.  When the odds and comps change the math does too. 

[FAA]

CS works best with wild card games. You need a game where the bell
rings often. You also need a large jackpot that occurs more often than
once every 40,000 hands.  Wild card games like deuces wild are notorious
for running in streaks. I have tried CS with all the
popular VP games and it works by far the best with traditional DW. CS more exciting than any other way to play
single line VP. The thrill of VP is in the anticipation of a
jackpot.  Every time you hit the max coin button playing CS, you get
that rush.  A 4 coin win happens in deuces wild about every 10 hands. 
This means you will be playing single coin 90% of the time.  When
playing single coin, every win is a win. A
$1,000 royal flush or even a $250 quad deuce, you have a windfall that
you can stash away. CS
lets you play much longer while retaining the
possibility of a max coin jackpot. You may need to suffer through
short coin jackpots before max coins. CS changes a high
cost game to a low cost game with a higher variance.  You need serious
discipline when using CS. The temptation to switch back to max coins
and give back all your money is formidable.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I got a lot out of this. Analyzing my AC options. I hate Bally's upright machines and their recent switch to ten coins. My favorite Harrah's carousel is dollars and it lacks DW among the game options. So within CET, Caesars $1 machines. Obviously I must be extremely careful, but I think that I can successfully have a session if firmly entrenched in the first column 90% of the time. Quad deuces occur in roughly half the time as a JOB straight flush for the same $250. This seems like a viable path, at least for a session. I'm still fuzzy on DW pay tables. So I'll have to Google DW 98.9% while scouting for quarter games at any casino, just to have the figures at my fingertips. 

[Jstark]

Why anyone would spend any kind of money on bad VP games is beyond me when you can play them right here on this site in your own home for FREE!

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Jstark]Why anyone would spend any kind of money on bad VP games is beyond me
when you can play them right here on this site in your own home for
FREE!
[/quote]Great question.  There are many people who enjoy the experience of casino gambling and are well aware they won't make money long term.  When you go to a movie or a fine restaurant, do you expect to make a profit?The idea that you can make money playing video poker was started by marketeers who want you to buy their books and software.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.  Their products serve a purpose or people wouldn't buy them.  The problem comes when players take parts of their strategies and ignore the parts they don't like.   If you take a personal inventory of your talents, skills, opportunities, bankroll, nerve and experience, few people have or are willing to do what it takes to make a profit playing VP.I enjoy playing video poker both on this website and in a casino.  I never expect to make money.   However, I do not enjoy paying $100 an hour for the experience.  For that money I can find other things I enjoy more.    The good news is there are ways to enjoy the game without risking hundreds if not thousands of dollars.   Playing VP for $8 a month on this website is one of them.  Playing with CS is another.  If you live in Vegas you can play full pay deuces in quarters get cash back and a free beer to boot.    The casino is set up so you can select the cost of your own admission.  It's the same casino, the same air and the same game if you play VP for 25 cents a hand or $100 a coin.  Just like everything else in life, "different strokes for different folks".

[Jstark]

I don't go to movies. And when I go to a restaurant, I get something tangible back, namely food.

My point is this, if I can do something for free from my own home, why go spend money on it elsewhere? Answer: there is no reason to do this.

[billryan]

As ****ty as it is to get a $62.50 single coin royal at a casino, I imagine it worse to get one here.
I grew up in a household that still made a lot of moron jokes. -Why did the moron bring a ladder to the party? He heard drinks were on the house.
In that spirit- Why did the moron play bad paytables?

[Gronbog]

The answer is easy: playing in the casino is gambling; playing here is not.