2017 VP Results - Not Great!

[Tedlark]

But Phil, in my opinion chance still has nothing to do with denomination. A royal will hit no matter what denomination is being played.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]If anything, his "logic" would make me avoid switching denominations.[/quote]I currently believe switching denominations mid play is counterproductive to your results.   It may help some of the time, but I believe it hurts more than it helps.    Part of this is due to human nature.  When we start to run out of money, we often make bad decisions.  I like to switch denominations because of the "high" I get from doing it.  If you are playing at the dollar level, start to run out of money, switch to quarters and hit a royal, you lost $3,000 for no other reason than your wallet was light.  I don't believe professionals do this. Ask one and tell us.[quote=Tedlark]But Phil, in my opinion chance still has nothing to do with
denomination. A royal will hit no matter what denomination is being
played.
[/quote]I believe we are talking about different things. I do not believe the denomination has anything to do with when a Royal occurs.  Royals occur at the same rate whether you are playing single coin nickels or max coin $100s.   I also do not believe the act of switching denomination has anything to do with triggering a Royal.VP is a game where a single hand out of ten of thousands can seriously affect your results.  Whenever we are talking about a game driven by a Random Number Generator, we must include "Chance" in our discussions.  You can call it "luck", "randomness" or anything else you want.  Whatever you call it, it is a factor in our results.Chance in VP is the intersection of math and the time a player is in front of the machine.  An example is a player who only plays VP one week a year in Vegas.  There is a good chance he won't hit a Royal during that week.  There is also a chance he might hit four of them.  This is because the cards are dealt at random.  Math says a royal will happen on an average of so many hands.  If he is sitting at a machine when it does, he wins.  If he's not, he loses.If he switches denomination during that week and hits a royal "chance" determines the denomination he was playing at the time and how much he got paid.You can use math to predict the possibility that something will happen.   In your calculations, there will always be room for all possible results.  What happens during the time you are playing is determined by chance.  The more hands you can play in your lifetime, the closer your results will be to the math.  However, it could take millions of human lifetimes to exactly mirror the mathematically calculated results.  Some players don't understand this fully or choose to ignore it.  This leads to the classic story of a gambler continuing to play a certain machine believing it is "due" to hit.   The bigger question is "Can VP math be of value to an average video poker player?"   I can only speak from my own experience.  Each time I have gone against the math it may have worked for a while, but I was eventually shown the error of my ways.I keep playing VP and I keep learning.  When I think I know it all, it will be time to quit.

[Tedlark]

Phil I completely disagree with what you wrote about the player who only plays video poker one week a year in Las Vegas. You said there is a good chance he won't hit a royal during that week.

The "chance" this player has always remains the same. To me this player also has a good chance he WILL hit one.

I'm trying to figure out what you are talking about but again; chance has nothing to do with machine denomination.

[FAA]

We can all agree that when you're at the helm, chance increases to 99.5%!

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Tedlark]I'm trying to figure out what you are talking about but again; chance has nothing to do with machine denomination.[/quote]The "chance" I am referring to is the timing of the switch in denomination.  Who determines when that happens?  How do you know when to switch?  Is there math that can tell you the best time to switch?   Does the fact that you are ahead make the chance of hitting a royal any higher?The player times the switch in denomination.  The player funds all his play out of the same bankroll.  If he hits a royal playing quarters, he is paid $1,000.  If he switches two hands earlier when he was playing dollars, he is paid $4,000.  How is chance not involved in the difference between his results?

[Tedlark]

Oh I see. Now you are talking about changing denominations from say .25 to 1.00 and not being at one particular denomination, say .25, and the chances would be greater than or less to hitting a royal vs. being at a completely different denomination, say 1.00.

[FloridaPhil]

Yes.  Unless the player knows something that no one else knows, the timing of the denomination switch is at best a "guess".   If you figure out how to profit from this consistently, please let me know.  I tried for years to figure this out.  I surmised that the return from playing a negative VP game could be improved by hitting the right number of higher denomination jackpots.  From time to time, it worked.  Overall, it failed miserably.    I am now convinced the best financially advantageous way to play VP is to play the games with the best expected return computer perfect at a denomination you are comfortable with.   I still switch denomination once in a while.  I do it to make the game interesting, not because I believe I can beat a negative game by doing so.We should recognize that not everyone plays VP for the sole purpose of making a profit.   Everyone wants to win.  Not everyone can or wants to do what it takes to do it.

[FAA]

That's basically it. Best EV at a cozy denomination. Switch, but stop after logging the switch hands on fingers and toes. Thats 2% of my hands if I stick to the 1,000 and turn. Hard cap. Worst case scenario: -$100. Repeat: hard cap.

[FloridaPhil]

While I am in an acknowledging mood, it's time to talk about another VP issue that has also caused me many a sleepless night... winning through cashing out.   Setting low cash out limits is a worthwhile strategy for Recreational Players.  It helps you control your spending and keeps you from playing above your bankroll.   It in no way will make you a winner any more than walking out when you are ahead.   Sooner or later you will have sessions where you never get ahead or the machines will call you back before you get to your car.   Unless you hit a jackpot and never darken the doors of a casino again, when you start or when you quit has nothing to do with your long term results.  Walking out with money in your pockets makes you feel good.   My goal is to always come home with some money left.   It makes we a winner to my wife and that's all that matters.

[FAA]

Should I ever get a hand pay, I am cutting my card in front of a family member as we celebrate the bittersweet end. That will find a ton of local entertainment.