your next hand?

[stevel96a1]

i have read in a gambling book, in blackjack your next hand is your  next hand and you have no idea if its a winner or a loser let be next day or next week. is that for the same in video poker?how true is that? another question is that if i sit down on one machine and played a thousand hands and then played a thousand hands on one machine each hand (provided i had the time  + the machines to do this with) the results would be the same?any info would be grateful

[billryan]

1)Totally true
2) Obviously not.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=steve96a1]another question is that if i sit down on one machine and played a
thousand hands and then played a thousand hands on one machine each hand
(provided i had the time  + the machines to do this with) the results
would be the same?[/quote]This is a good question.  As Bill has stated, all hands are independent.  What happened on the last hand has nothing to do with what happens next.  In States where the games are regulated, this is verified with testing.Your second question needs some explaining.    If the games are identical and the odds are the same, with perfect play math will show identical results "over time".   A thousand hands is not enough to make this happen.   How many hands does it take for the odds to balance out the results... 10,000, 100,000, 1,000,000 or the national debt at a dollar a hand?   Apparently no one knows as I have never had anyone provide a firm answer.If you have a choice of games, always choose the games with the best odds.  This does not guarantee a win, it gives you more chances of hitting a jackpot with the same money.  For human beings, video poker is a game of chance because our playing time is limited.  This means we are only observing a small slice of all possible results.Others may have better explanations. 

[markinca]

How many hands does it take for the odds to balance out the results... 10,000, 100,000, 1,000,000 or the national debt at a dollar a hand?   Apparently no one knows as I have never had anyone provide a firm answer.


That's because there is no answer. All you can do with games of chance is calculate an X% probability that you're within Y dollars of your expected winnings after Z hands. The larger Z gets, the larger X gets, given Y.

It's like if I asked you, how many coin flips would you need to make before you're guaranteed an equal number of heads and tails? That's not possible to answer either.

[FloridaPhil]

I'm not looking for an answer.   Video poker is a game of chance...check.  No problem here.  It does make me wonder how some forum members can state with certainty if you play only positive VP games perfectly you will make a long term profit.  There is no such guarantee.   When gamblers make this bet the odds are on their side, but they still must be prepared for the chance they won't.

[billryan]

Not only that, but even players who choose to play only positive situations still need to breathe. Failure to breathe will almost always have a negative long term value. Lack of sleep and an improper diet can also be detrimental.

[FloridaPhil]

When you add comps to your earnings everything changes.  That is why you don't have to play only 100% games to come out ahead.   After all, even 9/6 Jacks isn't 100%.   At the rate I'm going this year, I may be a winner playing 98% quarter games.   It's  game of chance, so you never know.

[FAA]

You mean that seventy five cents a week from $1,500 coin in? Assuming that constant, a stunning $36 per annum! I don't need comps, I need RFs. Even one will do.

[billryan]

You mean that seventy five cents a week from $1,500 coin in? Assuming that constant, a stunning $36 per annum! I don't need comps, I need RFs. Even one will do. One of my worse plays is $1500 coin in for $10 cash back.You can do it twice a day, but there are so many better plays.

[Gronbog]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]
How many hands does it take for the odds to balance out the results... 10,000, 100,000, 1,000,000 or the national debt at a dollar a hand?   Apparently no one knows as I have never had anyone provide a firm answer.


That's because there is no answer. All you can do with games of chance is calculate an X% probability that you're within Y dollars of your expected winnings after Z hands. The larger Z gets, the larger X gets, given Y.

It's like if I asked you, how many coin flips would you need to make before you're guaranteed an equal number of heads and tails? That's not possible to answer either.[/QUOTE]
There is a formula which can be applied to games of chance called N0 (N zero) which tells you how many hands you need to play before your expected result equals 1 standard deviation. This, in turn tells you the probability that the house edge will have asserted itself (in the case of negative edge games) or that you will be ahead (in the case of positive edge).

The formula is: Variance / EV^2

After you have played N0 hands, there is an approximately 84% chance that you will be behind/ahead respectively.

After you have played 4 x N0 hands, the probability is approximately 98%

After 9 x N0 hands, approximately 99.9%

After 16 x N0 hands it's so close to 100% percent that it's essentially a guarantee.

As an example, take 9/6 jacks or better with a 99.54% return, meaning that the house edge is 0.46%, and variance of 19.51. N0 for this game is therefore 19.51 / 0.0046^2 ~= 922,023