3/25/2018 play

[Tedlark]

FAA I don't know if this is comparing apples to apples, because I play multi-hand machines and not single line play, but if I left a machine after hitting a royal (or other premium hand) I'd have missed out on LOTS of fantastic hits that came subsequent to said royal or other premium hand.

[FAA]

Fortune favors the bold. And bankrolled.
I like to exit with the premium hit high memory. Further seismic activity would compromise it.

[wildman49]

[QUOTE=DaBurglar] Awesome report...and a nice victory for
you. You played, you ate all on the casinos' dime....a very very
typical, realistic and believable experience of the winning kind!

Straight flushes are indeed very rare but do seem to come in groups
of several or more at a time... I honestly wish they paid more, even
though that's not realistic given Current practice, climate and
expectations of the Casinos. 400 credits would be acceptable to me...

Welcome back Phil too...

I wished they paid more as well, but once you start offering more
than about 500 credits for them, strategy starts getting more difficult
because straight flush draws because more powerful.

Nice run wildman![/QUOTE]
Vman the WHA (White Hot Aces) have 400 for SF, I play it at quarter level now and again, never have hit a SF in the game but love them aces! 

[New2vp]

[quote=new2VP] When recreational players are playing until they run out of their daily
bankroll, they DO have a slightly better chance at getting a second
premium hand after hitting a big hand like a straight flush.I do not continue to play until I run out of money.   I play low variance VP only (JB, Bonus and DW).  I go to the casino with a predetermined amount (2,000 coins).   I set a low cash out limit and stick to it.   When all my money is in white tickets, I leave.   Since adopting this strategy late last year, I have come home even or with a profit over 70% of the time.   I have yet to lose over 50% of my session bankroll in a single day's play.   This strategy has changed my entire attitude on VP.   If I walk out with empty pockets, it's my own fault.  Works for me...















[/QUOTE]First, congratulations on finding something that works for you ... again. Second, the statement of mine that you quoted remains true.  I did not say that all rec players played until they exhausted their daily bankroll, but clearly some do at least some of the time.  And in that situation, there is a greater chance for all types of hits because more hands will be played.  I'm sure you know that all rec players do not play like you.  Obviously over the years even you have not always played like you do now.I'm happy that your recent experiences have been positive.  You probably are aware that you have used the term "works for me" on other strategies that you have recently suggested led to poor results.  I'm suggesting that there are better ways of predicting the future than extrapolating from your own personal recent results.  I'm sure you realize that your assessment of your play so far is quite a bit better than can be expected to continue.  Just in case you have not fully realized that, I thought you ought to be prepared to find out what you can expect in the future if you are in fact still flat betting using max coin quarters without taking occasional pot shots or reverting to some type of martingale play.Before you made some of the edits in your recent post, it looked like you suggested that you cashed out whenever your total equals or exceeds 200 coins.  That's as good a number as any, so that's what I'll use whether or not you are consistently employing that habit.  I'll assume your 2000 coins are quarters like recent posts have suggested, Let's say you put in a $20 bill and cash out whenever you have $50 or more.  I'm thinking that you've stated the best quarter game that you usually find is 7/5 Bonus Poker.  So, I'll use that in the results that follow.  If you divide your $500 daily stake up into twenty-five $20 bills, your mini-sessions will vary all over the place, but average about 108 hands before busting or accumulating $50 or more.  To be sure, you could hit quad aces on the first hand and end the session immediately or in very rare occasions take over 1000 hands going back and forth before busting or ending a winner.  If you win, the average white white ticket will be $75.67. Some of those can even be $1000 or more.  If you lose, which will happen 77.11% of the time, your loss will always be exactly $20.  The loss percentage that I'm seeing suggests that your reported results have been very favorable to you.*  For the 22.89% of the time that the mini-session ends up in a white ticket, you should find results like these:$  50 - $73.75           80.7%$  75 - $98.75             8.7%$100 - $123.75           7.6%$125 - $147.50           1.8%$1000 - $1047.50       1.2%Obviously, all these numbers are based on all assumptions being followed, perfect play, and no deviations from the announced money management strategy.  Clearly you will get different results when playing Jacks or Better or Deuces Wild.  But I still wouldn't expect 70% winning days over a 90-day stretch.When we piggy-back the results from one mini-session with a $20 bill into the 25 sessions that you can get from using your entire $500 starting stake, we will see that you will leave with less than $500 about 77% of the time and will lose $250 or more about 20% of the time.  The good news is that it is in fact extremely difficult to lose a $20 bill in this way twenty-five times in a row.  This will happen less than 0.2% of the time.  If you play every day this is only expected once in two years.More good news:  In 10,000 simulations, I did find one time in which the profit was over 12,000 coins!  3 royals in single line in one day!  Boy, will you be happy when that happens!  That should happen about once every 27 years or so.  I hope it happens earlier in that period rather than later.  None of us are getting any younger.And I'm sure you know that if you were simply putting all your $500 into the machine at once and playing the expected number of 2696 hands, you could expect the same average win or loss as you get playing $20 at a time.  But then you would lose the fun and novelty of collecting all those $50 and $100 tickets and cashing them in at the end.  Oh, I forgot to mention that the average number of coins that you will have at the end of 25 mini-sessions would be 1732.34.  Of course, this is virtually the same 268-coin average loss that you could expect playing $100 at a time.  Obviously, you seem to be representing that you've been beating this standard.  Great for you! *Edit:  If you are not going through all 25 mini-sessions and limiting daily play by, e.g.,  quitting at some other point (like any time you are ahead after any mini-session, after a set number of hours of play, or after say 5 or more mini-sessions), that could increase the daily win probability at the expense of proportionately smaller winning amounts but of course would not reduce the overall house edge.Now after all that good news, maybe you can clear up another puzzle from this thread.How do you reconcile saying both of the following?









[quote=olds442jetaway]Many times when I hit a straight flush, I hit a
Royal later in the session on the same machine.I always wondered
if anyone else has ever noticed this?  Whenever I hit a straight flush
it seems like other good things happen.[/QUOTE]





An intelligent question to ask me is if I ever remember a time when I
hit a straight flush and nothing good happened after that?  Of course.  
There is NO WAY to predict what cards will be dealt to you in the
future.
Do you see the contradiction?  I've bolded some words to make it easier to spot.Good luck on continuing to buck the odds!  Hope whatever money management strategy you're using continues to "work for you."

[FloridaPhil]

Thank you for your detailed assessment of my chances of success.  Fortunately, the VP machines I play draw cards at random, so I'm not ready to quit VP because math predicts I will lose.I am not a mindless automaton playing VP in a computer simulation.   A good example of this happened yesterday.  I always start out with quarter Bonus Poker.   I ran $80 in twenties through the machine without a quad.   I didn't want to start out with a big deficit, so I switched to quarter deuces wild to change things up.  I hovered for a while then hit quad deuces for $250.  I stashed that ticket, played DW a little longer and switched back to Bonus Poker.   I started pocketing white tickets.  When all my cash was in white tickets, I added them up and found I was $100 ahead.  I took $40 of my profits and played $1 deuces wild.  I ran one $20 up to $150 and cashed out.  I drove home with an extra $100 or so.This pattern has repeated itself for about 3 months now.  It has worked so well that I am now playing two days a week instead of one.   The most I have lost in any one day has been about $250.   I have hit three royals, but that's pure luck.  It's what has happened on days without a royal that's significant.   The way I used to play VP I started to dread going to the casino.  I am a human being not a machine and I hate losing.   My overriding goal is to play VP for at least 3 hours and come home even or ahead.  I currently make my goal over 70% of the time.I believe my current success is due to two main factors.  The first was my switch to Bonus Poker as my default game.   Problems for me start when I fall significantly behind.  The low variance of Bonus Poker allows me to get off to a good start.  At least I don't find myself down hundreds of dollars in the first hour.  I also don't find myself running off to the high limit room in an attempt to recover my losses.The second change was to increase my daily bankroll.  I believe the biggest enemy of a Recreational VP player is the fear of running out of money.   This causes all kinds of mental anxiety and leads to poor decision making.   I doubled my bankroll from 1,000 coins to 2,000 and things dramatically improved.I cash out immediately whenever the counter reaches $50 or more.   This means I am taking my winnings plus any money left in the machine out of play.   For example, if I run a $20 up to $40 and hit Bonus Poker quad aces, I stash $140 in my pocket.  It doesn't take too many of these tickets to break me even for the day.  With a daily bankroll of 2,000 coins, I come home happy and satisfied.Training myself to go home a winner has been worthwhile.   It doesn't always happen.  I'm not saying it will let me beat the casinos or overcome negative odds.  I'm saying it helps my discipline and definitely hold down my losses.   The strategy I am currently using works better than anything I have ever used.  It lets me play on a break even basis most of the time and wait for royals to happen.   When they do, I keep them.Note:  I don't believe hitting a straight flush predicts anything.  It means you are having a good day, that's it.

[New2vp]

Hey Phil, congratulations again on your success.  I do agree with you that this strategy is better than others that you have touted as "working for you" in the past.  And I encourage you to keep trying this one rather than reverting back to those.  Quitting when you are ahead after 3 hours certainly reduces the frequency of losing trips somewhat.  Quitting when you are ahead after 2 1/2 hours (or even 2 hours) would improve those percentages even more.  Quitting whenever you are ahead will produce even better results, but that's no fun.  Of course, it is the chasing losses when you continue to play when you are behind after 3 hours to reach both prongs of your goal that is the most problematic to bigger losses.  But like you said, at least you are not going high limit hunting any more.  That is a testament to your patience and newfound discipline.Note:  I don't believe hitting a straight flush predicts anything.  It means you are having a good day, that's it.
Good for you.  I agree.  So, when you answered olds, saying, "I always wondered
if anyone else has ever noticed this?  Whenever I hit a straight flush
it seems like other good things happen," you were just in MSU mode (Making Stuff Up, with apologies to Michigan State, no slur intended).  I get it.I am not a mindless automaton playing VP in a computer simulation. Good for you.  One difference of course is that the mindless automaton doesn't make playing mistakes.  And it can stick to any strategy with discipline ... like the way you are playing now.I cash out whenever the counter reaches $50 or more.  
This means I am taking my winnings plus any money left in the machine
out of play.   For example, if I run a $20 up to $40 and hit Bonus Poker
quad aces, I stash $140 in my pocket.  It doesn't take too many of
these tickets to break me even for the day.  With a daily bankroll of
2,000 coins, I come home happy and satisfied.This sounds great.  With 4 of these $140 tickets, you have more than made up for your entire $500 daily bankroll.  How often would this happen with bonus poker?  Well, with bonus poker, you will get 2 or more $140+ tickets less than 1% of the time while getting none more than 90% of the time.  But the $50, $75, and $100 tickets will add up, too.  If just takes a few more of these to get to $500.  Actually tickets from $140 to $150 are extremely rare.  It's really more than 6 times more likely to get a ticket of $1000 or more following your strategy than to get a ticket in the $140-$150 range.  And we all know how likely it is to get a royal in single line play in a 3-hour day.So, do you stick to this cashing-out-over $50 strategy?I set a low cash out limit and stick to it.   When all my money is in white tickets, I leave.So, the answer is yes!!  Good for you.
I cash out whenever the counter reaches $50 or more.  
This means I am taking my winnings plus any money left in the machine
out of play.Again, confirmation.  I get it.  Good discipline.When all my cash was in white tickets, I added them up
and found I was $100 ahead.  I took $40 of my profits and played $1
deuces wild.  I ran one $20 up to $150 and cashed out.  I drove home
with an extra $100 or so.Wait ... this is not only in the same thread, but it is in the same post.  After reading the bolded part, I was expecting to see that you went home with your winnings.  Do you sometimes forget what your strategy and discipline is about?  Are we once again in MSU mode?  Do all these stories have happy endings?  I do love it when a plan comes together and who needs negative stories anyway?In trying to make sense of this, I guess I am to understand that after exposing your bankroll that is sufficient for quarters to a negative edge and beating that edge, you are still looking for that additional thrill with dollar jackpots.  But you are still coming home a winner 70% of the time, so I guess no worries are necessary.Of course, it is your money and you can afford it, so there is no reason always to stick to the same strategy.  But if even you with your discipline choose not to follow it, why do you continue to write about it, touting it as the key to your newfound success?
















The second change was to increase my daily bankroll.  I
believe the biggest enemy of a Recreational VP player is the fear of
running out of money.   This causes all kinds of mental anxiety and
leads to poor decision making.   I doubled my bankroll from 1,000 coins
to 2,000 and things dramatically improved.Ok, so this is a contributing factor to your success.  Of course, you never lose more than $250, so the extra bankroll really does not come into play?  At least only very seldom?Every time you do lose more than $250 you always make it up.  Well, this is great.  I think we can all see that continuing.  As I mentioned it is awfully hard to lose $500 playing single line quarters in 3 hours, but it is difficult to attribute much of your success at significantly favorable winning percentages to this bankroll given what you have reported.
A good example of this happened yesterday.  I always start out with quarter Bonus Poker.   I ran $80 in twenties through the machine without a quad.   I didn't want to start out with a big deficit, so I switched to quarter deuces wild to change things up.  I hovered for a while then hit quad deuces for $250.  I stashed that ticket, played DW a little longer and switched back to Bonus Poker.   I started pocketing white tickets.  When all my cash was in white tickets, I added them up and found I was $100 ahead.  I took $40 of my profits and played $1 deuces wild.  I ran one $20 up to $150 and cashed out.  I drove home with an extra $100 or so.This pattern has repeated itself for about 3 months now.That is a great example.  Of course, a simulation can provide thousands of such examples (with both happy and sad endings) so they can be subjected to more detail and analysis.  While such a model can imitate results that occur from a well-specified strategy, a human's results with less than perfect play and less than perfect discipline will of course be different.  Luck also plays a part.  Using memory rather than assiduous record keeping to track results also has some diluting effects on what we report.When you say that "the pattern has repeated itself for about 3 months," do you mean the winning portion or the part about taking the winnings and moving up in denomination?Anyway, we all like a good story even if part of it sometimes strays into the MSU zone.  Keep up your magnificent success rate.  Many more royals to you!

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=new2vp]When you say that "the pattern has
repeated itself for about 3 months," do you mean the winning portion or
the part about taking the winnings and moving up in denomination?[/quote]The pattern I am talking about is my ability to gather enough white tickets to break even or make money.  Even when I don't the financial damage has been much less.I think the change that has had the most positive effect on my results has been my strong attempt to increase my discipline.  I was playing above my bankroll and didn't take enough money into the casino.  In the past, I considered any money left over at the end of the day as money to be played.  In other words, I played until I either hit a huge jackpot or busted.   As you would expect, busting was much more common.  These days I try as hard as possible to come home with money.    To play longer I switched to lower variance games and increased my bankroll.   I stick with quarter play 99% of the time.  This change alone has helped greatly.  Initially, I thought I would always be a quarter player.   I found out later that moving to dollar or 50 cent play under certain conditions could be beneficial without jeopardizing my goal of breaking even.  I currently play all my free play in $1s.  It's much easier to hit my $50 cash out limit at this denomination.   If I'm ahead at the end of the day, I may invest a couple of $20s into dollar or 50 cent play.  A $2,000 royal came to me this way last January.  Setting a $50 cash out limit creates a lot of white tickets.   Most are $50.  A few are much bigger.   Taking them home with me instead of feeding them back into the machine has been worthwhile.  This is not the first time on this forum I reported winning when I have been told I shouldn't be.  I find this amusing.  I don't expect to beat negative games long term.  There is a cost to other entertainment.  Why shouldn't there be  when playing VP?I'll continue to play this way and report what happens.  Thanks for the encouragement.

[Vman96]

[QUOTE=Vman96] [QUOTE=DaBurglar] Awesome report...and a nice victory for
you. You played, you ate all on the casinos' dime....a very very
typical, realistic and believable experience of the winning kind!

Straight flushes are indeed very rare but do seem to come in groups
of several or more at a time... I honestly wish they paid more, even
though that's not realistic given Current practice, climate and
expectations of the Casinos. 400 credits would be acceptable to me...

Welcome back Phil too...

I wished they paid more as well, but once you start offering more
than about 500 credits for them, strategy starts getting more difficult
because straight flush draws because more powerful.

Nice run wildman![/QUOTE]
Vman the WHA (White Hot Aces) have 400 for SF, I play it at quarter level now and again, never have hit a SF in the game but love them aces! 

[/QUOTE]

Yeah my favorite Strip bar (TAG Lounge) used to offer Triple Bonus Plus, which is White Hot Aces, but the SF pays 500 instead of 400. I got a dealt straight flush on it once at Paris one coining for a cheap drink. And more importantly, my first bartop Royal came on it for $1000 the trip before they got rid of the game at TAG for having a too high of a paytable. :( Surprisingly I never got 4 Aces on the game, but my gf did just hours before that Royal. Unfortunately she was one coining to be cheap too. Lol

[FAA]

Ted, thanks for the encouragement. I finally hit a meager $50 JOB quad today after $1,860 coin in, or 93 TC. I went off to play my table FP. The shooter was kind enough to roll me a quick seven win. I reasoned that you would return to the machine, say if you needed the WC. So I did. It was still hot and gave me another $60. Carpe diem!

[Tedlark]

Good for you FAA, Carpe Baked.