Crazy Luck Continues

[FloridaPhil]

To be honest, I have no idea where the 40,000 hand royal cycle number comes from or if it's even close to accurate.  As far as I am concerned that's where math ends and luck takes over.   Of course there will always be players who believe VP results are predetermined by  the odds.   I have not found that to be the case.  Maybe I haven't played long enough?  My point exactly...

[onemoretry]

  Every time you hit the deal button you are counting down from the number of hands it takes to hit a royal.  40,000, 39,999, 39,998, 39,997...  
You should well know by now that the likelihood of hitting a royal does not change from deal to deal. In fact, it does not "take 40000 hands" to hit a royal, it takes only one.

Writing this absolute nonsense indicates either a total lack of knowledge of how the statistics of the game are derived, or simply a desire to post something outrageous in order to generate a reaction.

If it's the latter, congratulations - I bit.

[FAA]

The real truth is that it takes however long it takes. And for me, it's been too long to continue exhibiting patience at $100 a trip.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=onemoretry]Writing this absolute nonsense indicates either a total lack of
knowledge of how the statistics of the game are derived, or simply a
desire to post something outrageous in order to generate a reaction.
[/quote]Applying computer technology to VP created a huge leap in productivity.  It allowed us to select the best games before we played them.  It reduced errors that increased the house edge.  The development of training software allows us to use repetition to apply this information real time.  All of this was wonderful and we should be thankful for it.  This quantum leap also allowed more players to have better results than they had before.  As this started to affect casino profit margins, casinos reduced VP odds to compensate.  Except for a few full pay machines in Vegas or possibly in the high limit room, that's where we are now.I do not know when my next royal is coming and neither does anyone else.  I could hit 6 tomorrow or not hit one in the next 6 years.   There is nothing in this world that can force a royal to appear.  There is also no way to calculate with any certainty how many hands it takes between royals.  A royal flush is 1-2% of the return in most VP games.  Hitting more than your share makes you a long term winner... So far.   Hitting less than your share makes you a long term loser.  We could take a survey of all the players on this forum and ask them how many players see a royal every 40,000 hands.  Some will say they do, some will say they see them more frequently and some will say less frequently.  Video poker is a game of chance.  If you do everything right and you win, be thankful.  If you do everything right and you don't, you are not alone.

[onemoretry]

Right around 200,000 RF free hands this year. Sick and disgusted. Time to make extensive local weekend plans. That would represent 200-300 hours of single line play. I didn't have the impression from your reports that you were playing that heavily.

Nevertheless, you have my sympathy.   I had one such bad streak a few years ago (around 220000 hands without a royal), and it was truly agonizing.

[DaBurglar]

[QUOTE=FAA] Right around 200,000 RF free hands this year. Sick and disgusted. Time to make extensive local weekend plans. That would represent 200-300 hours of single line play. I didn't have the impression from your reports that you were playing that heavily.

Nevertheless, you have my sympathy.   I had one such bad streak a few years ago (around 220000 hands without a royal), and it was truly agonizing.[/QUOTE]

I've found when I'm truly "cooking", I can play over 1200 hands an hour single line...if one is only playing between 700-1000hands an hour, then yes 200k hands is about 200-250 hours of play on single line games. If one plays 8-10 hours per day during a typical casino visit then this represents around 20-25 days in a casino playing VP, and if you play more per day then it's shorter. Thus, you are looking at perhaps 6 casino "stays" of 3-4 days each... that's not exactly heavy if it's spread out over 9-12 months...

[FloridaPhil]

I used to play 1000 or more hands per hour.  When I tested myself I found I was making a lot of errors.  Deuces is a hard game to play 100% perfect.  I changed my game and slowed down and my results improved almost immediately.My move to Bonus poker was two fold.  I can play it error free longer and the variance is lower.  It also happens to be the best quarter game at our casino.   I believe all of these things helped me.Since I have been on a winning streak, I have doubled my time in the casino.  I am now playing two days a week instead of one.  I am currently  $3,000 dollars ahead this year.  I have had only one day in three months where I came home with empty pockets and that was my own fault.  Do I expect to beat a 98% game long term?  It's doubtful.  If I do I won't think it was because of anything I did.  The next couple of weeks will be a good test.  Between AC and Connecticut I will most likely play at least 20-30,000 hands of single line VP.  If I walk away anywhere close to even, I'll be thrilled.  It may not matter anyway.  I read today that the end of the world is suppose to be on April 23rd.   Sure hope they're wrong.  I've got more royals to hit. 

[onemoretry]

The next couple of weeks will be a good test.  Between AC and Connecticut I will most likely play at least 20-30,000 hands of single line VP. 
Does that mean you've deleted Seneca Niagara from your trip?

[case]

  We could take a survey of all the players on this forum and ask them how many players see a royal every 40,000 hands.  Some will say they do, some will say they see them more frequently and some will say less frequently. 




You are wrong. There is not one person on this forum who would say they get a royal every 40,000 hands.

You just don't understand what an AVERAGE of 40,000 hands mean


[/QUOTE]

[FAA]

OMT, wait a second. You prompted a reappraisal! I did get 800 free TC in February. So give my legitimately earned TCs a 30% haircut to 2,200. My coin in was wildly over the top as well! At $20 a Tier, that's $44,000. So this translates to at most 10,000 hands. Thanks for calling BS. Temporary insanity as I FUBAR the algebra. I'm only at futility's quarter pole.