This happened to me recently.

[billryan]

Help I'm steppin' into the twilight zone
The place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned
My beacon's been moved under moon and star
Where am I to go, now that I've gone too far
Soon you will come to know, when the bullet hits the bone
Soon you will come to know, when the bullet hits the bone

[FloridaPhil]

I am trying to understand how anyone can predict the outcome of random events.   I offered what I consider to be good questions.   Whenever someone asks these questions, we are answered with complicated math gibberish, limericks or called names.   Is VP so complicated?  I think not.If the games are as predictable as you say, all of us who must play negative VP games should quit playing VP immediately.  Who will buy books and software if we are going to lose anyway?  What will we do with all those books when the last positive VP game is dragged out the door?

[Webman]

FYI, billryan's posting privileges in the Recreation Play forum have now been removed per the recently announced policies. Hopefully this will lead to more constructive conversation in this area.

[onemoretry]

I am trying to understand how anyone can predict the outcome of random events. 
A coin flip is a random event. How much would you be willing to wager that, in say 1000 attempts, you would get heads 700 times?

[FAA]

We're really talking about the Law of Large Numbers. Visually, it's tantamount to a flat line graph. Long Term Losers unite!

[Gronbog]

I am trying to understand how anyone can predict the outcome of random events.   I offered what I consider to be good questions.   Whenever someone asks these questions, we are answered with complicated math gibberish, limericks or called names.   Is VP so complicated?  I think not.If the games are as predictable as you say, all of us who must play negative VP games should quit playing VP immediately.  Who will buy books and software if we are going to lose anyway?  What will we do with all those books when the last positive VP game is dragged out the door?
I'm sorry that you consider my answers to be gibberish. I dont known how else to answer your questions about the math without showing the math.

I think that you have a basic misunderstanding about the nature of the randomness of games of chance. It is not random in the sense that every outcome is equally likely. It is a more like a random fluctuation from the expected result. The more you play, the bigger your expected positive or negative result. Eventually your expected result becomes so positive or negative that the fluctuations can no longer put you of the other side.

As for why one would continue playing negative games if you can't win in the long run, we already touched on that in this thread. As a recreational player, you have often stated that your goals are to play the game you love for entertainment at a reasonable cost, to go home with some money still in your pocket and to hit the occasional jackpot. The strategy that you use will accomplish these goals. The math says there will be a cost over the course of your lifetime. It's up to you to keep that cost with the range that you find reasonable.

[Waiting4RF]

Phil, the games are predictable. That is how and why the casinos always win over time when we play negative games without any types of comps. Look at roulette. You can bet red all day and lose because of the green 0 hits are losers about 2.5% of the time. If the green zero was not on the wheel, the game would return 100% EV.

[FloridaPhil]

I understand the advantages of playing the best games.  I understand the advantages of playing computer perfectly.  I also understand the advantages of maximizing comps.  There is nothing about being a Recreational player that makes these things less useful.The concept that there is a line that makes one VP game a winner and another a loser doesn't make sense.  If I go to Red Rock next week, I will see two rows of VP machines 30 feet apart.   One line has negative games and the other full pay games.  The odds differences are very small.  I am asked to believe one line is a winner and the other is a loser.  This is a ridiculous assumption.  Math may say it's true, but math isn't limited by the number of hands played, humans are.  Math doesn't switch games or change denomination and math doesn't walk out when it's ahead.We all agree anything can happen in the short term.  Long term is meaningless and undefinable in VP for all the reasons I stated previously.  That is what makes video poker gambling.  Who wants to play a game thinking they are defeated before they start?We all like to gamble or we wouldn't be on this forum.  I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't want someone telling me I can't win when I do.  I also don't want someone to claim to be a winner because math is on their side.Back when I was playing CS, experts told me I couldn't win playing like that.  I tried to explain how I played tiny and took regular pot shots that paid off.  I posted pictures of $17,000 worth of "lucky" jackpots on this forum and was accused of posting phony pictures.   Their minds were so fixated on their beliefs that they refused to accept the fact that in VP "anything can happen".  We will never solve this disagreement and if we did it wouldn't change anything.  Let's play the game and let the cards decide who wins and who loses.

[FAA]

Walk Out Ahead. The acronym is no accident. Just get the hell out of there. It's all negative, and so will your bankroll and mood if you stay.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]Walk Out Ahead. The acronym is no accident. Just get the hell out of there. [/quote]Easier said than done. The casino is pulling us back in, baiting us with precious gifts and tempting us with big dreams.   The longer we play the more time they have to work us over.   Sooner or later we capitulate and they will win.  It's not the game that is responsible.  We are our own worst enemy.