This happened to me recently.

[FAA]

I was going to go with, "Gamblers of the world repent!" I go for the thrill of seeking a jackpot quadruple my personal best. Unfortunately, this usually entails a weekly triple digit loss.

[Gronbog]

Who wants to play a game where the outcome is predetermined?   If you walk up and down the aisles of your casino shouting "Math says you will never beat this game, go home!", do you think anyone would?   Of course not.Most would admit that they expect to lose on that day but hope to win, which is entirely possible. Some would say that they are there for entertainment and are willing to pay the cost, which implies that they expect to lose. Very few are concerned with their long term losses and even fewer are bothering to keep track of them.Advantage play strategy is great.  It allows you to play more hands with the same money.  Who wouldn't want that?  Long term is like asking different individuals "how long is a string?" and expecting to get the same answer every time."How long is a string?" is not the practical question. The practical question is "how much rope do you need to hang yourself?". I have given you the answer several times and each time given the same answer.This discussion is deeper than that.  It's not about math, it's about egos.  Those that win want everyone including themselves to take credit for it.  They are convinced they are more intelligent and superior to others.  Those that lose make excuses.  Very few accept the results as what they are...random events.  The very definition of random is "unpredictable".This is why I said earlier that you might have a basic misunderstanding of the nature of the randomness of games of chance. Individual random events are unpredictable, however the accumulation of random events has a very predictable structure.If you flip a coin over and over, anything can happen in the short term, however, we all know that 50% heads/tails is the expected result.. As you flip more and more, you will come closer and closer to 50% heads/tails.  You expect less and less for the result to be significantly skewed one way or the other. Very quickly (after a few hundred flips) the result will be within 1% of 50% (you can try this at your kitchen table). Soon after, it will be within 0.1% and then 0.001%. This is very predictable even though the individual coin flips are random.Coin toss is a game of chance. The same is true of other games of chance. They have an expected result. For 9/6 Jacks or Better, it is -0.46%. The more you play, the closer your result will come to this -0.46%. It takes longer than tossing a coin because the variance (the size of the swings) of JoB is much higher. Eventually your result will be within 1%, but you still have a decent chance of being ahead since 1% is greater -0.46%. Later, your results will be within 0.5%. See what has happened? It is still possible, but you would now have to be very lucky to be ahead because the predicted size of the fluctuation is only a little bit bigger than the expected loss. Later still, your results will only be within 0.1%. At this point the predicted fluctuation is much less than the expected loss. You have almost no chance of being ahead. You have reached the long run.You will probably still respond that no human player will get to this point. I will point you again at the concept of N-zero which shows that it comes more quickly than you think.Long term winning at Video Poker requites both skill and luck.  How much of each is debatable.Skill based on what? You have avoided this question thus far.As for luck, I have shown That the amount of luck needed (probability of being on the less predictable side of the line) becomes almost zero well within the lifetime of a human player.I believe Advantage players use their skills to reduce the effects of luck,  but they can't remove it from the game completely.  I will continue to use their strategies.  The longer I play VP, the more I see the value in them.   With my comps and my bankroll, I may win long term or I may lose.  Either way I'm not going to believe I did it on my own.











If your comps, bankroll and discipline give you a positive edge, then I agree with every single thing you wrote in this paragraph except the possibility that you may lose. Under these conditions, you won't lose if you play long enough.Knowing how much you love the game and how much you play it is certain that you have already reached it.I don't need you to post any specific numbers, but answer this honestly, if even just to yourself: Do you know how much you are up or down for your lifetime? Given this number do you really think that the overall result (up or down) has a chance to be reversed over the remainder of your playing career?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Gronbog]Do you know how much you are up or down for your lifetime? Given this
number do you really think that the overall result (up or down) has a
chance to be reversed over the remainder of your playing career?[/quote]I love this question.   It's only been in the last 5 years or so that I have tracked my results with any accuracy.  I started when I tested CS over a two year period. Over that period of time I was up at the end about $1,200.   I am absolutely positive I am not ahead lifetime.  Like most gamblers I really don't want to know how much I've lost.  If I was to take a wild guess, I expect it's around15K.  Will I ever catch up?   It's possible, but unlikely.  How likely is it for me to hit four royals in a day?   This happen to me in 2008 and it could happen again.  What if I have a great day, walk into the high limit room with my profits and hit a $20 royal.  Right after I am paid I fall over with a heart attack and they wheel me out dead as a mackerel?   Wouldn't this make me a long time winner?I am not arguing with your math.  I am saying the long term time factor is different for all players.  Advantage Play Strategy is the best we have.  My problem is with the idea that it is absolute in all situations and under all conditions.

[Gronbog]

OK. So the possibilities are that you hit four royals in quick succession or that you hit one royal on an extreme pot shot. Both are highly unlikely and I know that you know that the second strategy is ill-advised for your bankroll.So we really only disagree on the absoluteness of it all. I (and Han Solo) have always conceded that there is a chance that you can beat the odds one way or the other. My point has always been that the chance is so close to infinitely small as to be ignorable. Might I suggest that you are already there?The casinos bet large sums of money on the concept that the chance that they will get beat by negative edge players is so small that they can ignore it. I would too. They also spend a lot of time and effort to identify advantage players because the chance that those player will  lose long term is too small for them to ignore. Whether they should bother with that side of it is an ongoing and interesting debate, not because the math might be wrong but because the cure for this may be worse than the ailment for the casino. Perhaps a good topic for another thread.

[Gronbog]

To answer your direct question, both catch-up situations would make you a winner at that moment, but it would only stay that way if you were to stop playing regularly after that point. So no, not a long term winner if you continue to play as much as you do now.

[FloridaPhil]

My current strategy is to play VP like my wife and let the cards fall where they may.   The only difference is I choose Bonus Poker and she plays Deuces Wild.   Deuces is more entertaining, but more difficult to play perfectly.   She enjoys numbers and is blessed with a mind that allows her to play slowly, deliberately and accurately.   She spots differences in strategy and is quick to point out changes that I barely notice.  Bonus Poker is easier for me and I can play nearly perfect for hours.I don't want to believe my VP results are predetermined and I don't believe anyone else does either.  As usual I will continue to play quarters the majority of the time.  If your predictions prove to be accurate, at least I won't lose much.  We have a good test coming up in two weeks.  We are spending four days at the Borgata in AC and two more days at the Mohegan Sun.  The Borgata rooms are comped which means we will be at least $200 a day ahead before we put any money in the machines.    I am determined to stick with Bonus Poker the entire time.   Long term winning in VP is about the frequency of royals.  We'll see how things work out.

[FAA]

Huge fun to monitor for me as an AC stalwart. I dared a frenzied 45 minute session of Caesars BP before leaving yesterday. Good News: max quad. Bad news: -$75. Hard fist, still no bucket list. As you see, I was staring -$200 in the face.

[Waiting4RF]

Phil,
    VPfree2 shows Borgota having 6/5 bonus poker for quarters on a 5 play machine (if I'm reading that right). They have 9/6 JOB for quarters.

[FAA]

Its Borgata, and Phil's charmed fortune should continue to follow him to the northeast. Some people are just winners.

[case]

Gronbog
Thanks for taking up the explaining VP to FP. The rest of us have grown tired. Good luck!