This happened to me recently.

[FAA]

Ah, Walt Kelly's phrase gleaned from the Battle of 1812. We have seen the enemy, and it is us. The gifts are crap. You're getting free rooms, at least. Just do a cursory $1,000 coin in so you leave having had an experience, and that's enough. Dreams can be pursued in small doses.

[Gronbog]

I understand the advantages of playing the best games.  I understand the advantages of playing computer perfectly.  I also understand the advantages of maximizing comps.  There is nothing about being a Recreational player that makes these things less useful.AgreedThe concept that there is a line that makes one VP game a winner and another a loser doesn't make sense.  If I go to Red Rock next week, I will see two rows of VP machines 30 feet apart.   One line has negative games and the other full pay games.  The odds differences are very small.  I am asked to believe one line is a winner and the other is a loser.  This is a ridiculous assumption.Most full pay games are still negative -- for example 9/6 Jacks or better is -0.46%. There are some full pay games that are positive -- for example 10/7 Double Bonus is +0.17%. Agreed the odds are very close. Only 0.63% separates them. The key is that the break even point is in between them at 0%. One is a long term winner, the other is a long term loser. Math may say it's true, but math isn't limited by the number of hands played, humans are.  Math doesn't switch games or change denomination and math doesn't walk out when it's ahead.The math easily handles switching denominations, bets and games. Expected value is additive and the variance of the different situations can be combined. Walking out when ahead doesn't change your long term results.We all agree anything can happen in the short term.  Long term is meaningless and undefinable in VP for all the reasons I stated previously.  That is what makes video poker gambling.And I say it is definable and attainable for all of the reasons I stated.Who wants to play a game thinking they are defeated before they start?Recreational players and gamblers. You yourself say that you want to play the games for entertainment at a reasonable cost. Inherent in that statement is that you expect it to cost you. Deep down though, your objection to the math reveals that you are really hoping that you have a chance to win long term.We all like to gamble or we wouldn't be on this forum.  I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't want someone telling me I can't win when I do.  I also don't want someone to claim to be a winner because math is on their side.And here is where the impasse lies. You're being told the truth, but you don't want to hear it. You could not have said it more clearly than this.Back when I was playing CS, experts told me I couldn't win playing like that.  I tried to explain how I played tiny and took regular pot shots that paid off.  I posted pictures of $17,000 worth of "lucky" jackpots on this forum and was accused of posting phony pictures.   Their minds were so fixated on their beliefs that they refused to accept the fact that in VP "anything can happen".  But can you honestly say that you came out ahead by playing CS? I think that if you had, you would still be playing it.We will never solve this disagreement and if we did it wouldn't change anything.  Let's play the game and let the cards decide who wins and who loses.










That's ok with me. My goal is not to convince you personally. My goal is to provide the correct information. People will decide for themsevelves what they choose to believe. All players, recreational or otherwise, should have a firm grip on the reality of what they are doing.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Gronbog]One is a long term winner, the other is a long term loser.[/quote]I agree with many of same thing things you do.  However, I do not believe it is beyond the realm of possibility for a player to win long term playing negative games.  I do agree it's unlikely.  This is because most of the losses incurred in a casino are self inflicted.  Playing above your financial and psychological bankroll is the most common cause.I play along side a player with that has outstanding accuracy and discipline.  She plays the same game all the time at the same denomination.  She is a "rock" and never ever wavers from her plan.  She only has negative games available to her and her bankroll continues to grow,   Observing her taught me a great lesson.  I have been doing my best to copy her style and it's working for me as well.   I have added $2,000 to my bankroll this year myself.Will we both continue to win?  We don't expect to.   If you add in our free play and our comps, we may.  Winning long term at video poker is about accuracy, discipline and making good decisions, not odds.If your experience is different than ours, that's fine.  I can only tell you what works for us.  The strategy we use is not easy.    The casino is always pulling us into their trap and we have to fight the urge to swing for the fences,  Searching for the strategy of the week won't cut it.  Blaming the games won't either.   You are in control of what happens when you play, not the math.To those of you that believe math formulas predetermine everything that happens in a video poker machine.  I choose not to.  If I believed that was the case, I would quit the game entirely or move to Vegas where I could play positive games all the time and never lose.   I suspect there are a lot of people in Vegas who did this.  I wonder how many of them are winners today?

[FAA]

I swing for the fences so much that a $125 Home Run quad still could not achieve BE today. -$95 gross and -$115 net on $1,800 coin in.

[Gronbog]

I agree with many of same thing things you do.  However, I do not believe it is beyond the realm of possibility for a player to win long term playing negative games.  I do agree it's unlikely.
So maybe we're not so far apart on this point. We may only disagree on the degree of unlikelyness here.

This is because most of the losses incurred in a casino are self inflicted.  Playing above your financial and psychological bankroll is the most common cause.

These things definitely make things worse in a negative situation and can prevent a winning situation from reaching the long run. After all, you can't keep playing if you run out of money.

I play along side a player with that has outstanding accuracy and discipline.  She plays the same game all the time at the same denomination.  She is a "rock" and never ever wavers from her plan.  She only has negative games available to her and her bankroll continues to grow,   Observing her taught me a great lesson.  I have been doing my best to copy her style and it's working for me as well.   I have added $2,000 to my bankroll this year myself.Will we both continue to win?  We don't expect to.

I'm happy that you're both experiencing an up swing. I note that you don't expect to keep winning long term, even with your disciplined approach. Given that you're avoiding the pitfalls mentioned above, why do you think this is?
If you add in our free play and our comps, we may.  Winning long term at video poker is about accuracy, discipline and making good decisions, not odds.

And yet, the accurate playing strategy you're depending on was developed using math based on the odds of the random outcomes you might get from each correct hold.
You are in control of what happens when you play, not the math.

I believe that it is both.

To those of you that believe math formulas predetermine everything that happens in a video poker machine.  I choose not to. 

That's your choice. But consider that these games were created based on that math and that the full pay tables were carefully crafted to result in the near break even returns (both positive and negative) that were all familiar with, also based on that math. Also consider that casinos offer inferioir pay tables because that makes the odds worse which makes them more money.

If I believed that was the case, I would quit the game entirely or move to Vegas where I could play positive games all the time and never lose.   I suspect there are a lot of people in Vegas who did this.  I wonder how many of them are winners today
You're right. However those who fail do so because of the discipline and bankroll failures that you described above. Also lets be precise. No one is saying that advantage never lose or that recreational players never win. I'm saying that recreational players will lose in the long run and that disciplined advantage players will win in the long run.

For what it's worth, you say that your comps may put you in the black after all is said and done. If so, and if you keep your discipline, then you are an advantage player.

[markinca]

every Phil rant comes down to:

Phil: Advantage play is pointless. There's no way you can guarantee me that you'll be a winner in the long run.

Math: Well yea, but the more hands you play, it's basically guaranteed.

Phil: Ah ha! See, I told you it's not guaranteed. Anything can happen! Math is so dumb.

[olds442jetaway]

vp is such a wacky game and wacky things continue to happen short term. The problem I have is defining long and short term. To me, long term is infinity. Short term can be more than one's lifetime even with millions of hands played like myself. The likely hood of some of the events that have happened to me must be millions if not billions to one. I play an average of a million hands a year if not more. I have experienced in three years 3 stints of Royaless streaks on single line games of over 600k hands each time. Also one streak of just under 400k hands. All on various forms of draw poker, but most on job, deuces wild, or joker kings. Luckily, I did hit one last night. I don't know the probability of my above royaless streaks, but I suspect it is millions to one of having 3 of them in say 3 million hands.
    The reason I feel the way I do is because as players we continue to see crazy things happen, yet to simplify everything, think about the probability of a dealt job hand coming out exactly that way. That in itself I suspect is a couple of million to one. Couple that with all of your dealt hands coming out exactly than way for that session of say 4,000 hands. Think of it. The probability of 4,000 hands being dealt exactly that way in that exact order. Must be trillions to one. These of course are short term results and that is why i say long term is infinity and short term is longer than ones vp playing lifetime.

[Gronbog]

See my comments above on N0 (n zero) and just how short the "long term" is in reality. You have played millions of hands. It it makes sense that you will have seen many unlikely events. You have definitely reached the long term already.

[FAA]

LOL. In other words, he's officially a loser.

[FloridaPhil]

Who wants to play a game where the outcome is predetermined?   If you walk up and down the aisles of your casino shouting "Math says you will never beat this game, go home!", do you think anyone would?   Of course not.Advantage play strategy is great.  It allows you to play more hands with the same money.  Who wouldn't want that?  Long term is like asking different individuals "how long is a string?" and expecting to get the same answer every time.This discussion is deeper than that.  It's not about math, it's about egos.  Those that win want everyone including themselves to take credit for it.  They are convinced they are more intelligent and superior to others.  Those that lose make excuses.  Very few accept the results as what they are...random events.  The very definition of random is "unpredictable".This "superior" ego trip is never ending.  They use complicated math to explain the unexplainable.  Whenever someone who disagrees reports a win, they are quick to point out they will most "definitely" lose in the future.  When they win, it's all skill and intellect.Long term winning at Video Poker requites both skill and luck.  How much of each is debatable.  I believe Advantage players use their skills to reduce the effects of luck, but they can't remove it from the game completely.  I will continue to use their strategies.  The longer I play VP, the more value I see in them.   Including my comps I may win long term or I may lose.  Either way I'm not going to believe I did it all on my own.