Different Quarter Jacks Strategy?

[Eduardo]

I think he was joking.

[Waiting4RF]

Phil, play your normal strategy so you can compare the results to your Florida VP results. You can't make 2 changes (location and strategy) and try to make a fair comparison.

[stevel96a1]

I tried sdb at borgata and got burned badly for 400$ all I caught was a straight flush and a crappy 4of a kind the 400 lasted about 3hr I'm starting to think daburglar was right about ac being rigged

[Jstark]

SDB has high variance. They are not rigged.

[Vman96]

  It's a "losing" play and I don't recommend it, but there is still a good question here that I don't know how to solve... Ignoring the overall return of the hold (gasp) how would this hold change the royal flush frequency?My guess is not all that much since it's not a high frequency situation, since you have to 1) be dealt a pair and a 3rf at the same time and 2) subsequently connect on the royal holding 3 cardsAnd it's certainly not worth all the lost JB, 3K, FH payouts you are giving up.But... still curious.

The 3 to a Royal > High Pair thing increases Royal frequency a decent amount.   To about 1 in 35k I think. I don't have the program to crunch that stuff anymore now. ATs won't add too many more royals, and hurt equity a decent amount. I suggest neither, but I definitely don't suggest this one.


More accurately, it will cost 30 cents every time you make that choice, not on every hand. You need to scale this loss by the frequency that you are dealt an initial paying pair.The Wizard of Odds gives 0.42256903 as the probability of being dealt an initial pair. But only Jacks or Better will pay so the probability of being dealt a paying pair is 0.42256903 x (4 / 13) = 0.13002124. So you expected loss per hand is $0.30 x 0.13002124 = about 3.9 cents per hand.This is on top of the normal expected loss from playing 9/6 Jacks with the correct strategy, which is  0.0046 x $1.25 = 0.575 cents per hand. So your total expected loss per hand is 3.9 + 0.575 = 4.475 cents per hand. You are increasing your expected loss rate by a factor of almost 8 times!!To put this into perspective, this is like switching from quarters to $2 (if it existed) but still only getting paid for playing quarters. This is a terrible idea for anyone. As a recreational player who wants to play for entertainment while keeping costs in check, the thought of this should be making you sick.I think that this is an extremely bad idea.


I think you forgot to factor in that he also needs 3 to a Royal with a high pair to make this suboptimal hold. Overall, I think this scenario only comes roughly 1 in 200 deals or so. I'm too lazy to do actual math over this.

I know going for 3 to a Royal always over high pair only costs a couple of tenths of percent in overall return. Of course at 9/6 JoB, lowering the return say 0.2% increases the house edge by 0.002 / 0.0046 = 43.5%.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Waiting4RF]Phil, play your normal strategy so you can compare the results to your Florida VP results.[/quote]I am going to stick to what's been working for me and play exactly like I have these past four months.  Of all the valuable things I have learned about VP, the benefits of playing low variance games is at the top of my list.   You can't play VP for a solid week if you are going to swing for the fences the whole time.  You will get behind and that's when the carnage starts.  Good odds are a good thing, even for a Recreational player.   Low variance is essential if you want to stay a winner.  I believe most of the complaints about rigged VP machine are due to high variance games.  They are popular with players as well as casinos.  At the casinos where I play the most popular VP game by far is 8/5 DDB.  The majority of the time this game is a huge loser.  You go for hours without a quad.  Even if you hit a good one the game takes it right back.  You panic and switch to dollar play, run off to "Cow Pile" poker or start doing something stupid like playing $5 games (been there).  At the end of a week you find yourself down $2,000 and wonder what happened.  Heaven help you if you have access to more money, because you are asking for some real pain.If I have the discipline to play Jacks or Bonus Poker and wait it out, I can play all week and walk out knowing I got my money's worth.  Next week I will play at least 25,000 hands of VP.  I believe I have a decent chance of hitting one royal.  I could hit more than one.  If I hit a royal for $1,000 after I'm already down $3K, it won't help me much.  My strategy is...Don't dig a VP hole you can't easily crawl out of!I'm sold on low variance games.  Four royals in four months will make anyone a believer.  The good part is when I don't hit a royal I still come home with money.  Time will tell if this works in AC.  I"m betting it will.

[FAA]

I only play low variance JOBand BP. I don't predict a RF. I firmly believe that you will have a losing trip, even at Borgata.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]I firmly believe that you will have a losing trip, even at Borgata.[/quote]Wanna bet?   

[FAA]

Your wife will likely win back your losses, of course.

[FloridaPhil]

Perhaps.   It's all about expectations.  If I do what I am suppose to do and I don't hit a royal flush, I predict I will lose less than $250 a day.  Our rooms are comped, so this would be close to a wash.  If I hit one royal, I will be even or ahead at the end of 4 days.   If I can do the whole week for less than $1,000, I will be happy.  I'm well ahead for this year and I don't expect it will last forever.When you are playing negative games, you expect to lose.  If you don't, it's a bonus.  I have no problem with paying to play, I just don't want to pay more than necessary.  If you can do a week's vacation at Disney World for less than $1,000, I want to know about it.