The absurdity of mythical video poker "payback"

[trumpforprez16]

Just to illustrate the idiocy of this scam...

I'm playing 9/6 Triple Double (which I believe is 99.5%), ten handed, most of the time...

But for example's sake, let's follow my friend's VP journey...

"Ok, so I'm down $4,000. That just took 30 minutes. But all I need is ONE Royal to get even..."

"Ok, so still can't get a Royal or Four Aces with a kicker. Did get Four 2s with a kicker, but now I'm still down $8,000. Gonna need two Royals."

"Ok, now I'm down $12,000, still no Royal. Need three."

"Ok, forget that, now down $40,000, STILL no Royal. Did get Four aces with a kicker, but lost back that $4,000 in twenty minutes. Now I need to be DEALT a Royal just to get even!"

This goes on for a few months, now let's meet our friend -- who still believes his machine has a '99.5%' payback...

"Ok, now I'm down $18,000,000 million dollars. I've hit four Royals. Four Aces a few more times. Never got dealt anything. Now I need to be dealt a Royal about 450 times IN A ROW, just to get even!"

The chances of being dealt a Royal 450 times in a row is about all the Stars in the Universe TIMES all the Stars in the Universe.

But our friend is gonna keep tryin' and keep pouring his money into the machine, in hopes of finally getting CLOSE to even -- maybe being dealt 448 Royals in a row -- all in the belief that the Triple Double machine will finally reach its average lifetime payout of 99.5%.

Let's meet up with our friend a year later...

"So I'm still trying to get 450 dealt Royals in a row, but now I'm down $750 Billion dollars, so I need a LOT more Royals dealt in a row..."

This is the absurdity of video poker.

Good luck getting those Royals.

Any player will need to be DEALT dozens of Royals just to get CLOSE to even.

Every video poker player on Earth -- just to get EVEN -- will need to be dealt dozens upon dozens of Royals IN A ROW or Four Aces / kicker in a ROW to GET EVEN!!!

LOL!!!

The game is NOT "99.5%" "payback"... it is ZERO PERCENT payback.

In my experiencce, all I do is LOSE -- quickly -- with only occasional bursts during sessions of big wins, which quickly get sucked back into the machine. The biggest wins -- 20k and 40k -- are still not enough to even make up a month's worth of losses. In some cases, not even a day's!

I recently hit $20k and lost back $18k in a matter of hours!

The machines are WORSE than slots, even!

Video poker is the biggest ,most idiotic SCAM on the planet and players are lured in by the false advertisement of '99%' payback and other nonsense that VP is the best game in the house.

Wrong! It's the worst for the player. All VP machines DO is suck away money! They virtually never pay out, and WHEN they do, you've already LOST thousands or tens of thousands, so who cares if you hit a Royal?

[onemoretry]

I wonder what happened to your corn flakes this morning?

By the way, 9/6 triple double bonus poker, an EXTREMELY volatile game, does not have a 99.5% return.

[Eduardo]

It sounds like you are misinterpreting the 99.5%.That doesn't mean if you bring a million dollars to the casino you will leave with $995,000.It means if you play a million dollars through the machine (winning and losing along the way) you will on average be about $5,000 down at that point. If you walked into the casino with a million dollars, then $5,000 in losses might not be that big of a deal. And hopefully you've earned some nice high roller comps along the way, which makes it worth it to some people.But if you keep playing, you will continue to, on average, lose $5,000 for every million you play through the machine. That's what a less than 100% return means. Keep playing, keep losing. That's why advantage players will tell you not to play machines with less than 100% factoring in free play, comps, etc.If you are trying to recoup losses playing a negative machine, you are setting yourself up for trouble. So only play these machines if the losses and what you gain along the way are worth it to you, or in small amounts. Playing through many millions of dollars just isn't a good idea on low paying machines and it doesn't take a "rigged" machine for the casino to make out just fine on this sort of player.

[trumpforprez16]

I wonder what happened to your corn flakes this morning?

By the way, 9/6 triple double bonus poker, an EXTREMELY volatile game, does not have a 99.5% return.

I'm talking about Triple Double w full house paying 45, and flush paying 35, straight 20.

I thought that was 99.5 but maybe not, but it's def high payback

[trumpforprez16]

It sounds like you are misinterpreting the 99.5%.That doesn't mean if you bring a million dollars to the casino you will leave with $995,000.It means if you play a million dollars through the machine (winning and losing along the way) you will on average be about $5,000 down at that point. If you walked into the casino with a million dollars, then $5,000 in losses might not be that big of a deal. And hopefully you've earned some nice high roller comps along the way, which makes it worth it to some people.But if you keep playing, you will continue to, on average, lose $5,000 for every million you play through the machine. That's what a less than 100% return means. Keep playing, keep losing. That's why advantage players will tell you not to play machines with less than 100% factoring in free play, comps, etc.If you are trying to recoup losses playing a negative machine, you are setting yourself up for trouble. So only play these machines if the losses and what you gain along the way are worth it to you, or in small amounts. Playing through many millions of dollars just isn't a good idea on low paying machines and it doesn't take a "rigged" machine for the casino to make out just fine on this sort of player.



My losses FAR EXCEED your scenario.

A complete dearth of Royals ****ed me this year. 100,000s of hands, too. I always play ten play.

[Vman96]

First 9/6 Triple Double is only 98.15%, not 99.58% like 9/7 Triple Double.

So playing that at $50 a whack, you would expect to lose (100%-98.15%) x $50 = $3.70 per round.

And let's say you play 400 rounds an hour, thats 400 x $3.70 = $1480 lost per hour

Let's say you play 20 hours a week that's
$1480 x 20 hours a week = $29,600 a week

Do that for six months straight, you should expect to lose:

26 weeks x $29,600 = $769,600 lost.

And that's just "expected loss" playing OPTIMALLY. Run badly you might be down a few million dollars after six months on a completely fair machine.

So if you, I mean your friend, played like this for months, unless they are as rich as Donald Trump, I suggest they get professional help.

Edit: You claimed you were actually playing 9/7 Triple Double Bonus, which has an optimal return of 99.58%. So in my example above, that means your "expected loss" playing OPTIMALLY after would be

(100%-99.58%) x $50 x 400 x 20 x 26 = $43,680

But again, if you run badly, your actual losses could be in the millions. And if you can't even quote 9/7 correctly, I'm not holding my breath on you correctly holding things like K85 suited. Errors can easily add up in 9/7 TDB.

[stevel96a1]

everyone and i mean everyone knows Triple double bonus is a really tough game IMO id stay away from it, try a 9/6 jacks or better. everyone on here owns atleast one video poker book knows how much money you need to play TDB and still not worth it for god sake its not an atm machine lol id stay with a deuces wild game or where a game pays double on a pair 

[Eduardo]

My losses FAR EXCEED your scenario.

A complete dearth of Royals ****ed me this year. 100,000s of hands, too. I always play ten play.Okay, what is your coin-in for the year and what are your losses? That will give your personal % return so far, as a starting point for this discussion.

[markinca]

But again, if you run badly, your actual losses could be in the millions. And if you can't even quote 9/7 correctly, I'm not holding my breath on you correctly holding things like K85 suited. Errors can easily add up in 9/7 TDB.

This is the huge thing that I think often gets overlooked. Most rec players who see that a flush pays 7 instead of 6 just see it as a 'bonus' on their regular flushes, not realizing that that bump in pay table requires a completely different strategy altogether to play optimally. That, combined with a <100% game on a HUGELY volatile game could add up to staggering losses for anyone.

[Lucky Larry]

everyone and i mean everyone knows Triple double bonus is a really tough game IMO id stay away from it, try a 9/6 jacks or better. everyone on here owns atleast one video poker book knows how much money you need to play TDB and still not worth it for god sake its not an atm machine lol id stay with a deuces wild game or where a game pays double on a pair 



steve,

not to quibble but "not everyone is smart enough, don't put in the effort or don't care to know about TDB" or have a VP book. Sad if it's me, but those who choose to play games they don't understand or care to learn about is to our benefit. These people help the casino keep their edge and provide some of us with better comps and keep the machines flush with cash for the some of us.   I see people come and play TDB all the time, they see the "glittery" pay table and go for the big hit. Most have no clue even the right play. It's possible they live life the same way.

It's not unlike investing. I knew nothing about investing in the stock market prior to closing in on retirement. I spent two years reading, learning, attending seminars, reading blogs like "Bogleheads" and learned as much as I could so I now manage our own money and save the fees.   The same is true with VP. I've spent lots of time and still do to learn VP. For those on limited $$ I want to play the smartest way possible. Like most things in life, you generally get out what you've put into it.

LL