The World of Negative VP

[FloridaPhil]

Relocated from the Stories Forum.The whole point of my offer was to show there are NO long term positive VP games in Florida.  The fact is, there aren't many ANYWHERE.  I am not claiming they do not exist.  They do, most likely not where you play.  If I could play them perfectly, I would do exactly what Mr. Dancer says to do.So what does this mean to an average player?   If we assume Mr. Dancer is correct and I think he is, he will not play any game unless he has an advantage.  He does not play these games for a reason, they are losers.   Math does not lie.  There is nothing anyone can do to turn an overall negative VP game positive long term.  No matter how smart or tricky you are, the math will prove this out.   Even if you find a positive VP opportunity, you must be able to play 100% accurately forever.   For most people, this is a totally unrealistic goal.  So now what?  If you are going to play losing games for entertainment, you can control how much it costs to play them.  Since I have been on this forum I have been an advocate of playing Recreational VP as small as possible.  The biggest factor in how much a negative game costs you to play is the amount you run through the machine.  If you don't play at all, you lose nothing.  If we had penny machines, the next smallest loser would be one coin pennies.No one wants to play on coin penny VP.  If you are going to play negative VP, my advice is to play small enough where you don't care if you lose.  This advice is not popular with casino managers.  They want you to believe you are so "intelligent" you can beat their advantage.  They want you to think you have a secret strategy that can overcome the odds.   The casino spends millions of dollars to hire consultants and talking heads to convince you the game can be beat.   Google the phrase "can you beat video poker" and you will find 820,000 results!If you don't care if you lose playing $5 games or bigger, the math still applies to you.   Playing bigger magnifies your losses on a negative game, it doesn't cancel them out.Why do I bother to post this?   Because the constant barrage of "You can beat VP marketing" never stops.  When I first starting playing VP over 10 years ago, I believed the "VP is Beatable" marketing and ignored the math.  In one day I made over $14,000 playing VP.  Of course I gave it all back plus some.   In time I learned to play VP cheap and enjoy it as the "entertainment" it is meant to be.If you don't know how to determine if the VP games you have to play are overall negative or positive, you have work to do.   Mr. Dancer and others have written many good books on this subject or you can ask him yourself on this forum.  Every serious video poker player should know this basic information.  My bet is your games are negative. 

[FAA]

After $14,000 in a VP day, I'd likely shun casinos forever. Hell, lop off a zero. I just want a bucket list hand pay.

[olds442jetaway]

FAA....your day will come. The problem with most of us it comes when we are playing tiny amounts. That's why from now on, I am going to keep a running total of how much I need to bet to be even for the year if I get a Royal. Hopefully, it won't get too high. I can't tell you how many times over the years, I have plopped i a nickel or a quarter just to kill a few minutes and up pops the Royal. Then not another one for a year or so.

[FloridaPhil]

My $14,000 day came back when I first started playing VP.  I had no clue what an adequate bankroll was.   If I had known, I would not have had the experience I did.   All I knew was I could play Jacks or Better longer than the other games.  I did not know you could lose playing Jacks.   I'll bet a lot of VP beginners think the same thing.  Wrong....  I now play at a denomination where losing is only a nuisance.   If I make a mistake, I lose a few cents.  If I decide to go for it and it doesn't work out, who cares?  I consider video poker to be Candy Crush for quarters and I'm fine with whatever happens. 

[FAA]

Olds, it may require a change of venue. The Connecticut Connection. My AC power has clearly gone out.

[BobDancer]

Relocated from the Stories Forum.The whole point of my offer was to show there are NO long term positive VP games in Florida.  













Well, there are. Cherry picking Ultimate X is long term positive and there are several of those in Florida. I have a number of contacts with professional players in Florida. Yes there are opportunities there in addition to Ultimate X. And you certainly don't need to play 100% accurately --- although the closer to that level you play, the more opportunities exist.In Vegas, unless you are playing small stakes, the games are not positive in and of themselves. You need to combine the slot club, game, promotions, etc. And the games played this year are different than the ones played last year. Any of these games are learnable, even by recreational players. You just need to find them and recognize them for what they are.Most of the games I play are only positive during certain situations --- which is not that different from only playing Ultimate X in certain situations.In my mind, you owe the $100. Moving the thread here only has the effect of avoiding Bill Ryan's input, as he appears to be restricted from posting here. It doesn't change the fact that a legitimate example of positive video poker play in Florida was posted. Whether you're recreational or professional, welshing on bets is poor form. You can't say afterwards, "yes I technically lost but what I really meant was blah blah blah so I'm not going to pay." Not a classy move. Not a move of someone who takes pride in honoring what he says. If you want to rephrase the offer differently next time, do so. But pay off this time.You act as though $100 is pocket change to you. So pay up. If JStark doesn't want the money, find out where his favorite charity is and send them the money.

[FloridaPhil]

Mr. Dancer, cherry picking left over Ultimate X multipliers is not a genuine long term positive VP game. That's the same as walking around picking up floor tickets or cashing out machines with money left in them.  Surely this isn't the "advantage" you have been talking about all these years?However, I will send the charity of your choice $100 if you provide us with the exact details of a positive VP opportunity at the Tampa or Hollywood Hard Rock.   I will publish what you send me on this forum for all to see.  Our members need to see exactly what a positive VP opportunity is.  I will also scan and post a copy of my check.  Here is your chance to prove me wrong.I didn't move this thread  to the Recreational Forum to keep anyone from posting.  It started in the Stories Forum and I felt it needed better exposure.   It rightfully should have been posted on the Strategy Forum, but I am bared from posting there because you don't like what I have to say.   Positive games are at the heart of your Advantage Play Strategy.  If you can't prove they exist neither does Advantage Play.  I respect your opinions greatly.  I honestly wish to see a real long term positive VP opportunity.  I don't think they exist in Florida, but I have an open mind.   When and if you produce one example, I would be curious to see the expected return and if it could actually fund a "nice lifestyle".  This is not an added criteria for paying off my bet.  Produce one real Florida long term positive VP opportunity that a forum member would have and I will pay up.

[Jstark]

Vulturing UX, Multi-Streak (Not "Strike") are definitely long term positive expectation (100%+) plays and strategy. They are not like picking up left behind tickets/loose change. You actually have to play.

Now as for Bob's response. Nobody owes me nothing nor should anyone send any money to a charity or such. I say let these people believe what they want. Some people are just to hard headed to learn anything. Just look at all of the great blackjack info out there, but yet most players still will NOT hit A,7 vs 10! And that's just basic strategy, let alone anything to do with advantage play at the game.

[Carcounter]

I don't think Phil is the kind of VP player to walk around the casino all day vulturing Ultimate X. Gotta side with him on that. If that is an example of positive play, technically, I would have to agree it is, but what a way to earn a living. I've seen these vultures in AC over the years. What a sorry bunch of characters.

[Jstark]

I don't think Phil is the kind of VP player to walk around the casino all day vulturing Ultimate X. Gotta side with him on that. If that is an example of positive play, technically, I would have to agree it is, but what a way to earn a living. I've seen these vultures in AC over the years. What a sorry bunch of characters.
The point was to show that there are 100%+ opportunities in those casinos. Now to show that they were worthwhile.