Luck vs Skill vs Players?

[Gronbog]

You might flip heads 10 times in a row or be 80% / 20% early on , but eventually the tails will balance out.Is it because the coin changes?Is it because the player starts flipping the coin differently?Or is it because of statistical tendencies and the wonder of mathematics, which is not the cause of the next flip, but a scientific analysis of past results as well as a reliable guide to future expectations?

The use of the words "balance out" is a bit misleading and helps to fuel notions like the gambler's fallacy. Actual results do not converge to the expected result over time because streaks in one direction are "balanced" by streaks in the other direction. Eduardo touched on the real reason when he said ...
Once you've flipped a thousand times, even 10 heads in a row won't affect the percentage very greatly from then on.The real reason that actual results converge to the expected results is that those early imbalances become insignificant over time. Those 10 heads in a row are 1% after a thousand flips and 0.1% after 10 thousand flips, etc.For those still counting on that magic "correction", consider this example:You flip a coin 100 times and get 70 heads (70%) and 30 tails (30%). The expected result is 50 / 50.You flip the coin 100 more times and get 60 heads and 40 tails. You now have a total of 130 / 200 = 65% heads and 70 / 200 = 35% tails. Even though you continued to see more heads than expected, your overall result is now closer to the expected result. No correction occurred. In fact, if you had been betting on tails, you would have lost even more during the second 100 flips.Now let's flip the coin 10 thousand times and let's say you got 5100 heads and 4900 tails. Your overall result is now 5230 / 10200 = 51.27% heads and 4970 / 10200 = 48.73% tails. Tails is now an even bigger loser, but the result is now even closer to expected. No correction ever came.These same principles apply to all games of chance, including VP.

[Eduardo]

EXCELLENT explanation, Gronbog!

[mattz]

Second that!

[Tedlark]

stevel96a1 -

What did you mean when you wrote: "Florida Phil's system?"

Can you explain?

Thank you in advance.

[stevel96a1]

I meant his money management system and sticking to a limit and cash out anything higher than a full house should start with 13 twenty dollar bills

[Tedlark]

Thank you for the explanation, may your luck improve.

[stevel96a1]

everyone is entitle to their opinion, and can infer what they wish regardless of sample size small to large. and if i wish to stay away from a cold machine thats my businessand if  i happen to see someone play for 3hr and not hit anything and he/she played a perfect game and ended up a loser for 1500ish hands i may tend to gravitate towards that particular machine its my choice maybe i avoided a bad 3hr run maybe i didn't well see

[FloridaPhil]

Just for clarification, I do not believe my system of playing $20 at a time and cashing out at $50 affects long term VP results.   It is a Recreational Money Management strategy that can be used to monitor your play and indicate when it may be time to leave the casino.   If a Recreational Player sets a goal of always leaving with some money left, they will have a better attitude toward VP.  A better attitude leads to more effective play.What goes missing in math based calculations is the human factor.  Human beings are not calculators or computers.  They have feelings.  These feeling influence the decisions they make.  Leaving with money left in your pocket keeps you from making bad decisions like attempting to catch up by playing above your bankroll or taking pot shots that almost never pay off.    APs have this under control.  Most players do not.

[markinca]

everyone is entitle to their opinion, and can infer what they wish regardless of sample size small to large. and if i wish to stay away from a cold machine thats my businessand if  i happen to see someone play for 3hr and not hit anything and he/she played a perfect game and ended up a loser for 1500ish hands i may tend to gravitate towards that particular machine its my choice maybe i avoided a bad 3hr run maybe i didn't well see



No one here is telling you how to play. I don't care what you do with your own money. All I've ever said is that you can't really make any conclusion about riggedness or luck or skill or whatever you want over a couple hundred hands.

And I'm glad you brought up the example of someone playing for 3 hrs and not hitting anything. You said you'd play the machine because you avoided that 3 hr bad run. Others might say to stay away from that machine because it's clearly 'cold'. Who's right? Neither - that's the point - the machine doesn't know whether it's spit out 3 hours of garbage or 10 royal flushes in a row - it just keeps generating hands randomly, one after the other.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=markinca] Neither - that's the point - the machine doesn't know whether it's spit
out 3 hours of garbage or 10 royal flushes in a row - it just keeps
generating hands randomly, one after the other.[/quote]  Exactly.I would also like to point out there is no correlation between the odds of a game and the number of jackpots it produces in the short term.    Multiple royals can happen just as easily on a 95% game as on a 105% game.  This is the fact that makes video poker entertaining.   Better odds give you more chances at  a jackpot for the same money benefiting long term results.  What happens after that is up to the RNG which as correctly stated above is totally random.This is not an argument against choosing to play better games.  Playing better games is advantageous.  However, it's not ever been a 100% guarantee of profits.  The reason this is important is some players think the game owes them jackpots.  It owes you nothing except random numbers.