understanding gambling?

[stevel96a1]

i am trying to grasp the idea of edge, bankroll, # of hands, and varianceif i gave player 1 a 5k bankroll and player 2 a 5k bankrollplayer 1 plays blackjack with an edge of +0.60%player 2 plays jacks or better  an edge of - 0.46%now we are faced with smallest bets, JoB 1.25 per turnblackjack  a whopping 15$ a turnwith 33 max bets player 1  could go broke before ever seeing that 0.60% edgewhile player 2 can hit royal after royal and more so on a progressive machineso you can play with an edge and never see any gain whats so ever with an edgeif your bankroll is too small while someone who has a decent size roll can double their starting bankroll playing at a negative gameis the last sentence correct? gambling is all about time and bankroll and if you have an edge to live long enough to see it grow?

[Jstark]

And the reverse could just as easily happen.

[Eduardo]

Anything can happen in 33 hands. But if you play much at all, winning 5 coins less on every full house will add up. Pay tables and "the edge" matter to anyone who plays with much frequency.If you're trying to get lucky and spend just 15 minutes in a casino, then you might as well play something like roulette where a jackpot is available on every spin. You will probably leave broke, but you never know. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose in those 15 minutes. The odds are not in your favor.

[stevel96a1]

i ran 2 simulationsone on win pokerone on masque blackboth played 500k hands masque finished ahead with some winning 0.12+ edge  (but the losses went passed 5k to get to that + edge and a low 1-5 spreadWin poker lost 19k credits on jacks or betterboth games tell me  i need alot of money to gamble to see any return and there is quite a risk factor, the thing is i don't have access to full pay deuces wild so i won't sim it, and i don't have option to be mobile to play blackjack full time is gambling suppose to be profitable for average joe in america?

[Gronbog]

The short answer is that it is the combination of edge and variance which determines what your risk of ruin will be for a given bankroll and, conversely, how much bankroll you need to achieve your desired risk of ruin.I will show the math if anyone wants to see it. I've been accused in the past of posting mathematical gibberish.Reality is that neither player will quit forever if they lose their $5k. They will wait until they come into more money and keep playing for life. Given that, the blackjack player with the edge will end up ahead in the long run while the JoB player will end up losing.

[New2vp]

Anything can happen in 33 hands.Agreed.  And "some" things happen with way more probability than "other" things.  When faced with two different groups of "anythings," I generally like to choose the "anythings" that have the higher expectation, particularly if one group of them is positive and the other negative.  Now, if I didn't have the skills to recognize the difference between the two or the ability to make the proper choices, I just may pass on both opportunities and go to a movie or play golf. 

[New2vp]

I will show the math if anyone wants to see it. I've been accused in the past of posting mathematical gibberish.Sure, show the math.  If you want to toss in some gibberish just for fun, that would be ok, too.  The people who understand should be able to tell the difference!

[stevel96a1]

But Gronbog, the house will only tolerate a counter for so long then he or she gets the boot i see what you are saying it is better to play a positive game let it be a crummy 0.10or 1% edge oppose to a negative game through out your lifeme and my wife pool our money together and play video poker and we broke even after the travel/food these passed 15 months or sowe have big wins and big losses to match but i want more and stretching those 15 months into 15 years won't make much of a difference in terms of profit or lossnow i see why people play slot machines just hit once big and get it over with

[Gronbog]

An individual casino may not tolerate a counter for long. It depends on his/her ability to blend in with the masses. These days, most areas with casinos have more than one, and each will eventually forget about you unless you made yourself memorable in some way. So getting backed off does not have to be the end of the road.

[Gronbog]

[QUOTE=Gronbog]I will show the math if anyone wants to see it. I've been accused in the past of posting mathematical gibberish.Sure, show the math.  If you want to toss in some gibberish just for fun, that would be ok, too.  The people who understand should be able to tell the difference!
[/QUOTE] All I needed was for one person to ask You Risk of Ruin (RoR) can be calculated from your edge, variance and bankroll asRoR = e ^ (-2 * edge * bank / variance)    where e is the base of the natural logarithm (approximately 2.71828).How's that for gibberish? This RoR assumes that you play forever and represents the odds of losing your entire bankroll -- ever. It's a worst case assessment of the risk. Since you can't play forever, your actual risk will be slightly lower.Now, for a typical blackjack game, the variance is about 1.33. Steve has our player betting $15 per hand with a 0.6% advantage (reasonable for a card counter) and given him a $5k bank. This gives him $5,000 / 15 = ~333 betting units. So, the blackjack player in Steve's example has an RoR of e ^ (-2 x 0.006 x 333 / 1.33) = 0.0025 = 0.25%JoB has an edge of -0.46% and variance of 19.51 (much bigger than blackjack!!) and our player has 5000 / 1.25 = 4000 betting units. Unfortunately, since the edge is negative, the formula doesn't work. The RoR for a negative game is 100%. But let's say that, with cash back and free play, the JoB player manages an edge of +0.46%. His RoR would then bee ^ (-2 x 0.0046 x 4000 / 19.51) = 0.1516 = 15.16%Despite betting less per hand than the blackjack player, his RoR is more than 60 times higher. This is because the variance of the JoB game is much, much higher than the variance of a hand of blackjack.If our JoB player wants to have the same 0.25% RoR as the blackjack player, how much bankroll does he need? We can turn the formula around and we getbank = -(variance / (2 * edge)) * ln (RoR) = -(19.51 / (2 * 0.0046)) x  ln (0.0025) = ~12,706 betting units or 12,706 x $1.25 = $15,882.50