understanding gambling?

[stevel96a1]

Its when you go past threshold of 10% of your yearly income you are or become problem gambler addiction. Even 5K is too much for me

[stevel96a1]

Well now bill which player would have a higher chance tdoubling their roll of 500$ 9/6 1.25 or s17LS 8deck 15$?


I want to say 9/6 i see myself getting up in 15min on bj table because i tapped out

[Gronbog]

The risk of ruin formula for reaching a goal before going broke is extremely complex, but can be found in Blackjack Attack, 3rd Edition, Chapter 8, by Don Schlesinger.[*** edited to correct the results, which I botched the first time ***][*** edited again, because I was right the first time ***]Using that formula for 9/6 JoB @ $1.25 with a $500 bankroll, you have a 45.30% chance of doubling.For the blackjack game, assuming Basic Strategy, the house edge is approximately 0.39% and you have a 45.13% chance of doubling.Very close, but the JoB game has a slightly better chance.

[stevel96a1]

But if i do that 10 times over . The blackjack is better than job 9/6?

[Gronbog]

Back to the original post of this thread ...
i am trying to grasp the idea of edge, bankroll, # of hands, and variance Here is a visual way to understand edge, bankroll, variance and why you will eventually end up on the predicted side of your edge (positive or negative).Imagine that you're walking your dog along a sidewalk which starts near a road but which angles away from the road in a straight line.The distance from where you started to the road is your bankroll. Starting farther away from the road represents a bigger bankroll. The angle with respect to the road is your edge (or lack thereof). The greater the angle, the greater the edge. The farther you walk, the farther you will be away from both the road and your original distance from the road. This is your expected result over time.Your dog in on a retractable leash. In theory this leash has unlimited length, but the farther your dog pulls away, the harder it is for it to pull any further. In practice, there comes a point where the dog cannot get any further away because it is not strong enough.The strength of your dog is the variance of the game. The stronger your dog (larger variance), the farther away he can get from you (the more your actual results may be different from expected)You walk in a straight line (expected results) but your dog wanders aimlessly to your right and to your left. The position of your dog is your actual resultsIf your dog is farther away from the road than you are, then your results are better than expected.If your dog is closer to the road than you are, then your results are worse than expected.If your dog is closer to the road than when you started, then you are losing moneyIf your dog is farther away from the road than when you started, then you are winning moneyIf your dog goes onto the road, it gets hit by a truck, and you both get dragged and killed. That's the same as losing your bankroll.So with this image in your mind it is easy to see that, when playing a positive gameAt first (the short term) it is easy for your dog to be closer to the road than when you started (you are losing money). If you started close to the road (small bankroll) it is also easy for your dog to wander onto the road (you lose your bankroll)The farther away from the road you start (bigger bankroll) the less likely it is that your dog can wander onto the road (lose your bankroll)Since you are angling away from the road in a straight line, eventually you will reach the point whereyour dog can no longer reach the road because he is not strong enough to extend the leash any further. At this point you can no longer lose your bankroll.your dog can no longer reach the distance from the road that you started at. At this point you have reached the long run and are a winning player.It is possible to start far enough from the road that your dog can never reach it in the first place (adequate bankroll)Now, for a negative game, everything is the same, except that the path you are on angles toward the road.At first (the short term) it is easy for your dog to be farther from the road than when you started (you are winning money).Even if you start far away from the road (large bankroll), since you are angling toward the road in a straight line, eventually you will reach the point where your dog can no longer reach the distance from the
road that you started at. At this point you have reached the long run
and are a losing player.If you start fairly close to the road (inadequate bankroll), you and/or your dog will eventually walk onto the road, and get hit by a truck (you will eventually lose your bankroll).For both positive and negative games it should be clear that you get to the long run more quickly witha greater angle between the sidewalk and the road (greater positive or negative edge)a smaller (weaker) dog (lower variance).I hope this visual helps. Look Ma, no math!!

[Gronbog]

But if i do that 10 times over . The blackjack is better than job 9/6?Yes. If it is the better choice once, then it is the better choice 10 times over.

[billryan]

Your best chance to double you BR under the conditions you laid out would be to simply bet your entire BR on one hand of BJ. Not counting a push, you have about a 48% chance of doubling it.
Thats not how AP play works.
Figure out what your edge is , multiply that by the hands per hour and you come up with your expected value. If your expected value per hand is plus 5 cents, and you can expect 60 hands an hour, then your expected value per hour is plus $3. Divide that by 500 and you see you can expect to double your BR in about 165 hours.
If your expected value per hand of poker is minus 2.5 cents, you multiply that by 500 hands per hour and your expected value would be negative $12.50.
How many hours would you expect it to take to make $500 when your EV is negative $12.50?
In the case of the BJ player, his $3 profit per hour can go to infinity.
The VP player can get good cards for an hour, a day or a week but eventually the negative EV will eat his bankroll like Shaq at an all you can eat ribs joint.

[Gronbog]

[QUOTE=stevel96a1]But if i do that 10 times over . The blackjack is better than job 9/6?Whichever was the the better choice once will be the better choice 10 times over for the stated goal of doubling before busting.[/QUOTE]

[FAA]

QED, Gron!

[billryan]

I think the OP is saying that if one doesn't beat the other ten times straight, its not any better.
I may be wrong, but that's my impression.