How To Keep The Casino From Beating You

[FloridaPhil]

This is the start of my new post.  It may someday turn into a book, although I doubt anyone would read it. They certainly wouldn't pay money for it.  My hope in posting this thread is to inspire new forum contributors.  I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who plays these games.  I could be the only one who admits it. 

First, this post will not discuss positive VP games or opportunities.  We have enough experts in that game already.  I have only actually seen one or two of these games in my life as a video poker player, both were at the Red Rock Casino in Vegas.  By adding the value of comps and incentives, it is possible to gain a mathematical advantage on some video poker games.  Actually taking that advantage to the bank has not been my experience.  If Advantage Play experts are not going to discuss the best way to play negative VP games, I will not give advice on positive games.  Something I know nothing about.

8/5 Double Double Bonus. The most popular game by far in the casinos where I play is 8/5 Double Double Bonus.  Players love this game because of the big jackpots which come on average about once an hour.  If players are going to play this game, let's look at the math.

8/5 Double Double Bonus is a 96.786% game at max coins.  Played single coin this game is a 95.554% game.  This means the "house edge" is 3.21% at max coins and 4.46% at single coin.   This means you are paying approximately 3-4 cents out of every dollar for the privilege of playing the machine. 

An average player plays about 600 hands an hour.   If you play this game with max coin quarters, an average player will run about $750 an hour through the machine.   3.21% of $750 is about $24 with computer perfect play and no errors. This also assumes a royal flush shows up on average of one every 40,000 hands.  If not, you can add a little over 1% more to the house edge. A single coin player plays this game with a 4.46% house edge with perfect play.  Hitting a royal flush does not affect this number.   In 600 hands, a single coin quarter player runs $150 an hour through the machine.  4.46% of $150 is $6.69 an hour.At an average of one royal every 40,000 hands, an average player will play 67 hours per royal flush.  You could see more or less royals depending upon random chance.  With the hourly house edge of $24 (max coins), after 40,000 hands you will have paid the casino about $1,600 to experience a royal.  In 40,000 hands, a single coin player will pay the casino about $470.

Feel free to check my math.  If it's wrong I will correct it. Playing max coins earns comps and free play which can help to offset some of the house edge.  The rub comes because double double bonus has very high variance.

This means you are going to suffer through financial downturns.  By playing lower variance games, you can reduce this pain, but you can never eliminate it completely.  This is completely normal and part of playing the game of video poker.  This math also assumes you can play 100% computer perfect forever, a totally unrealistic assumption.  It also assumes all jackpots show up when they are suppose to.  With so much of the return tied up in so few hands, it's understandable that there will always be winners and losers in this game, even with perfect play.In time the house always wins.

Is there any way to reduce the cost of playing negative Video Poker?  That is what we will be discussing as we go through this post.

[FloridaPhil]

Your Biggest EnemyWe have already discussed the cost of playing one popular negative video poker game.  Is this all there is to talk about?   The previous example showed the long term cost to play max coin quarter 8/5 Double Double Bonus is about $24 an hour.  This assumes no errors and all jackpots show up on time.  Anyone who has played this game knows you can easily lose $100 an hour or more playing this game.  Downturns are inevitable, especially in high variance games.  There is another factor that is responsible for more losses than all the house edges put together.  That factor is greed.When you walk into the casino, what do you see?  I see excitement, lots of flashing lights, luxurious decorations, bright lights and people having fun.   I see graphics of beautiful sexy women holding fist fulls of money or buffaloes stampeding though screens of dollar signs.   Look inside any most gambling strategy book or software cover.  There you will see photos of people standing next to huge jackpots.   If you come on this forum you may read a post by a Vegas professional espousing $5 games.  I can pretty much guarantee he's not playing the same games you are.The casino is selling dreams.  This is why we like to go there.  For a few hours we can dream of walking out with stacks of hundreds.  I have actually had that experience more than once myself.   Why all this marketing and what does it accomplish?  The bigger and better the casino can make their dream the more you will pay them.  The fact that you are paying to play never crosses your mind.   After you have lost all the money you brought into the casino, the bad memory stays with you for a day or so then it's back to dreaming.   Casino dreams manifest themselves in very counterproductive ways.  The worst of this is playing above your bankroll.   When I go to the casino to play VP I take a daily bankroll of 1,000 quarters.  This is normally enough to play max coin quarters for at least two hours.   If somewhere along the day the casino dream gets to me and I switch to dollars, I have almost no chance of winning.  Once I hit anything in dollars, my discipline is shot.   The chance that I will hit a jackpot big enough to cover my journey into dollar play is very small.  What if I stayed with quarters under all circumstances?   My wife plays Deuces Wild like this and counting comps and free play she comes very close to breaking even playing 97-99% games.   She has bad days once in a while, but eventually her quad deuces and royals appear on time.If you want to minimize the cost of playing negative games you need DISIPLINE!   Start with quarters and stick with it.  Some people play nickle VP.  I don't because the odds are so bad it removes any cost saving.  I am not going to advise anyone to play single coin unless you are an old jaded player like me.  One more royal in my life is not going to change anything.   I  use software to check the odds.  I compare single coin with max coins and I play the cheapest game.  Most players won't do this because the pain of hitting a short coin royal is too great.  I could care less, you may feel differently.Learn to play one game well.  Play within your bankroll.  Take a minimum of 1,000 coins into the casino.  If you don't the casino will consistently bust you, which is bad for your moral and confidence.   When your money is gone, leave.  Better yet, limit your time in front of the machines to two hours and get the Heck out of there.  Never take an ATM card into the casino under any circumstances.  The casino will be there tomorrow.Yesterday I was walking into the Tampa Hard Rock.  In front of me on the sidewalk was a small group of people.  I overheard one lady say.  "I'm only going to play a little today.  I lost a lot of money yesterday and I can't afford to lose any more."    It seems the dream is alive and well.

[Jstark]

Sounds more like a nightmare to me.

[Tedlark]

Phil - in your two opening posts here are you claiming that casino comps are not opportunities?

I may have missed it if you did.

[stevel96a1]

i am trying the martin gale system Phil on double double bonus aces and faces 99.45 and martin is winning at the moment, can't guarantee how long it will keep GUESSSING right but shes holding well

[FloridaPhil]

Sounds more like a nightmare to me.
I can see how someone with access to positive VP could think that.It actually isn't as bad as it seems.  Going to a casino that only offers negative VP is the norm not the exception.  At the casino where I play, the video poker machines are always full.  Most of the these players like to win.  None of them win long term.   What they are paying for is the experience of winning.   When someone hits a royal, they are not sad because they are behind lifetime.If positive lifetime results were the only winning criteria, the casinos would be empty.In my opinion the best way to play VP is to limit your cost of play to acceptable levels.  A dollar player has a higher acceptable level than a quarter player.A potential problem occurs when a player starts believing  the machines owe them a jackpot.    These machines don't owe anything except a profit to the casino.  If a machine doesn't produce a profit, it's removed from the floor.

[Tedlark]

Phil?

[case]

Phil wrote:

An average player plays about 600 hands an hour. If you play this game with max coin quarters, an average player will run about $750 an hour through the machine. 3.21% of $750 is about $24 with computer perfect play and no errors. This also assumes a royal flush shows up on average of one every 40,000 hands. If not, you can add a little over 1% more to the house edge. A single coin player plays this game with a 4.46% house edge with perfect play. Hitting a royal flush does not affect this number. In 600 hands, a single coin quarter player runs $150 an hour through the machine. 4.46% of $150 is $6.69 an hour.At an average of one royal every 40,000 hands, an average player will play 67 hours per royal flush. You could see more or less royals depending upon random chance. With the hourly house edge of $24 (max coins), after 40,000 hands you will have paid the casino about $1,600 to experience a royal. In 40,000 hands, a single coin player will pay the casino about $470.

Case Reply:

You are missing something here. You said playing max will cost you 24 dollars an hour and it takes 67 hours (on average) to hit a royal. So 24.00 X 67 hours = 1600 dollars. That is correct but you forgot to add the royal that is expected on those 40000 hands. SO cost 1600 - 1000 (for your royal) = 600 dollars lost.

Same with single coin 470 dollars (expected cost) -62.50 (expected royal) = 407.50 loss

So it cost 193 dollars more to play max coins. However you now have to add in the comps after 67 hours of max coin play vs those you would get playing single coin. I think you will now see perhaps playing max coin might be a better play.

Now don't go and say what if you don't get the royal on time as it was you who used the 40000 hands as your point. Don't forget the royal can also come early.

You have said your self the casino does not really comp you playing single coin. They will however comp you playing max coin on such a negative game.


Besides the thrill of hitting a 62.50 cent royal vs a 1000 dollar royal is not even in the same ballpark.

Something to think about

[FloridaPhil]

Phil - in your two opening posts here are you claiming that casino comps are not opportunities? I may have missed it if you did.

Comps and incentives have value. How much is determined by the each casino, the offers they make and their value to the player. A comp may have value to one player and be totally worthless to another. For example, If I play VP at the Beau Rivage, they may let me play golf for free. I don't play golf, so that comp has no value to me.

Advantage players talk about cash back. To a Florida player, cash back is the change they give me at McDonalds. It's great to talk about free cruises, free cars, thousands of dollars in comp points and getting your dog groomed for free. The question is "Are they worth more then the cost to earn them?"

In our travels we see all manner of comp systems. We always play with a players card and we have stacks of them. When we get home, the casinos we visited fill our mailbox with offers. Some of them have value to us. I am planning to make a post on this forum discussing my own comp situation and how we use them to our advantage.

[FloridaPhil]

You are missing something here. You said playing max will cost you 24 dollars an hour and it takes 67 hours (on average) to hit a royal. So 24.00 X 67 hours = 1600 dollars. That is correct but you forgot to add the royal that is expected on those 40000 hands. SO cost 1600 - 1000 (for your royal) = 600 dollars lost.

I thought about this myself. The $24 a hour loss figure was calculated using the 96.786% max coin odds for 8/5 DDB. These odds assume a royal appears on time, so I believe my original calculations are correct. I am not promoting playing single coin. I am showing you lose less money when playing 8/5 DDB. There are other good reasons to play max coins.

I agree with your other points. The hope that royals will appear more often than one every 40,000 hands is the thing that makes negative game players hopeful. The fact that they do or don't is what makes Video Poker "Gambing" and not mathematics.